2026-06-18 12:39 UTC
Scenario evidence 8 markers Open evidence Close evidence
Large bearish expansion broke the 415-420 support area and changed character from range trade to downside displacement.
Evidence Wide range down day from 420.50 to 388.59, close 391.00, with heavy volume.
This is the local capitulation low that defines the bounce origin and current support reference.
Evidence Price undercut to 380.15 and closed near the session low at 381.59 after a second sharp down leg.
Strong close near the high after probing lower showed demand absorption off the breakdown low and confirmed a tradable rebound.
Evidence Long lower wick, close 406.43 near session high, reclaiming back above 400.
Bounce reached 416 but stalled beneath the broken 420+ area, marking the retest failure zone.
Evidence Recovery high at 416.00 after the rebound, but no acceptance back into the prior 420-424 support shelf.
Latest candle confirms sellers regained control after the rebound stalled, pushing price back below 400 and toward the middle of the bounce range.
Evidence Bearish close at 396.38, below VWAP and in the lower part of the daily range after 2026-06-16 upper-wick rejection.
Volume expanded with the support break, validating the breakdown rather than a routine dip.
Evidence 63.42M volume, clearly above recent average, paired with a large bearish spread.
Highest recent rebound volume came on a lower-wick rejection and strong close, showing active buying off the 380s.
Evidence 63.65M volume with a deep intraday probe to 386.76 and close near the high at 406.43.
The retest into 412 lacked volume and left a large upper wick, suggesting poor upside acceptance rather than fresh demand.
Evidence Only 40.26M volume with a 7.76 upper wick and close below VWAP.
Transaction ticket SHORT Open ticket Close ticket
- Entry
- 396.38
- Current
- 396.38
- SL
- 416.00
- TP
- 380.15
Bearish breakdown-retest structure remains in control: rebound from 380s failed under 416/424 supply and price rolled back below 400 with weak retest participation and a below-VWAP close.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on TSLA D1 because the post-breakdown rebound failed under 416/424 supply and the latest candle rolled back below 400, favoring continuation toward 380 support.
Price
396.38
PnL
0.00%
Side
SHORT
Open short on TSLA D1 because the post-breakdown rebound failed under 416/424 supply and the latest candle rolled back below 400, favoring continuation toward 380 support.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on TSLA D1 because the post-breakdown rebound failed under 416/424 supply and the latest candle rolled back below 400, favoring continuation toward 380 support.
Flat state requires an entry, and the stronger technical side is short. Stage2 AT shows a breakdown-retest regime: the 2026-06-05 high-volume support break changed structure bearish, the rebound from 380-386 stalled at 416 below broken support, 2026-06-16 showed weak retest participation with an upper wick, and 2026-06-17 confirmed rollover with a bearish close below VWAP and below the 400 pivot. While 380-386 remains support and could produce another bounce, current evidence favors downside continuation first, so the forced-entry AT bucket opens short against the failed retest thesis.
Initial short risk is defined above the failed retest high at 416.00; profit target is the June swing-low support at 380.15. No trailing update on entry.
- 2026-06-05 breakdown candle broke prior 415-420 support with wide bearish range and expanded volume (63.42M), signaling structural downside change.
- Rebound high on 2026-06-15 reached only 416.00 and failed beneath the 412-424 broken-support supply zone.
- 2026-06-16 retest had weak participation (40.26M) and a large upper wick, showing poor upside acceptance.
- Latest candle on 2026-06-17 closed bearish at 396.38, below VWAP 400.0177 and back below the 400 pivot.
- Stage2 AT summary explicitly describes renewed softness below 400 and a lower-high rebound failure leaning back toward bounce-origin support.
Watch for continuation toward 380.15 support; invalidation would be a reclaim above 416 and especially back into the 412-424 supply shelf.