2026-06-18 12:39 UTC
Scenario evidence 8 markers Open evidence Close evidence
Wide bearish expansion pushed price into the lower part of the recent range and confirmed loss of prior support.
Evidence Large range down day closing near the low after the late-May rollover; marks acceptance below the prior 0.323-0.324 area.
Price made the local low with a deep intraday washout, creating the key test point for whether supply was exhausted.
Evidence Largest recent downside probe to 0.310355 with very high volume and a long lower wick, showing heavy effort and responsive buying off the low.
The next session held above the flush low and closed well off its own low, suggesting sellers were not getting clean continuation.
Evidence Pronounced lower wick and close in the upper part of the range after the June 10 washout.
After the rebound into 0.322+, sellers hit back immediately, showing the reclaim was not yet accepted.
Evidence Bearish conviction candle with minimal wicks, closing near the low right after the June 13 bounce.
Price pushed back above the prior two-day pullback and closed near the high, keeping the failed-breakdown thesis alive.
Evidence Bullish conviction candle, close near range high and above VWAP, recovering most of the June 14 rejection.
Breakdown pressure was backed by strong participation, not a quiet drift lower.
Evidence One of the highest recent volume bars accompanied the bearish expansion candle.
Very high volume on the flush low suggests either capitulation or aggressive absorption; this is the pivot volume bar for the whole scenario.
Evidence Volume surged well above average while price pierced to a new local low but did not close at the low.
The rebound candle is constructive in price terms, but participation was below average, so confirmation is incomplete.
Evidence Bullish conviction close occurred on volume materially below 20-day and 60-day averages.
Transaction ticket LONG Open ticket Close ticket
- Entry
- 0.32155
- Current
- 0.32155
- SL
- 0.30980
- TP
- 0.32550
Weak bullish bias: price is attempting a support reclaim after a selling climax and absorption, but it is still trading directly under nearby supply and the rebound volume is not convincing.
OPEN LONG
Open long on the support-reclaim attempt, using the June 10 flush low as invalidation and nearby overhead supply as the first target.
Price
0.32155
PnL
0.00%
Side
LONG
Open long on the support-reclaim attempt, using the June 10 flush low as invalidation and nearby overhead supply as the first target.
OPEN LONG
Open long on the support-reclaim attempt, using the June 10 flush low as invalidation and nearby overhead supply as the first target.
Flat state forces an entry, and the stronger technical side is cautiously bullish. Price rebounded from the June 10 selling-climax low, June 11 showed absorption with no downside continuation, and the latest candle closed near its high back above the 0.3179-0.3203 reclaim pivot. Although price is still just under the 0.3227-0.3242 supply band and volume on the latest rebound was weak, the failed-breakdown/reclaim thesis currently has slightly better evidence than an immediate short. The long is therefore taken with tight structural invalidation below the flush-demand zone and a conservative target into/through the nearby supply test.
Stop is placed just below the June 10 flush low and demand zone to respect structural invalidation. Take profit is set just above the nearby 0.3227-0.3242 supply band as a conservative first confirmation target.
- June 10 printed a selling-climax flush to 0.310355 with very high volume and a long lower wick, indicating responsive buying off the low.
- June 11 held above the flush low and closed well off its low, showing absorption and lack of clean bearish follow-through.
- The latest candle on June 16 was a bullish conviction candle closing at 0.321548 near the range high and above VWAP, recovering most of the June 14 rejection.
- Current price is back above the 0.3179-0.3203 reclaim pivot zone, which supports the support-reclaim thesis.
- The main counter-evidence is that 0.3222-0.3242 overhead supply is still directly above and the June 16 rebound occurred on weak relative volume.
Watch for acceptance above 0.3227-0.3242 to validate continuation; failure back below 0.318-0.320 would weaken the reclaim and raise risk of a move toward 0.315 and 0.310355.