2026-06-18 12:39 UTC
Scenario evidence 8 markers Open evidence Close evidence
Capitulation low established the springboard for the current rebound.
Evidence Lowest low of the window at 1505 after a multi-day liquidation sequence.
Strong bullish expansion off the post-climax base signaled demand returning.
Evidence Wide bullish body from the low with close near the upper portion of the range.
Impulse leg cleared prior short-term highs and reached the first major supply test.
Evidence Range expansion to 1848.42 with strong close after breaking above the 1700s pivot.
Follow-through failed immediately as price probed high and was sold back, warning of supply at the breakout peak.
Evidence Very small body with large upper wick on the highest recent volume.
Price is now testing the broken 1720s area; hold here keeps the breakout-retest idea alive, loss of it turns the move into a failed breakout.
Evidence Bearish close below VWAP and near lower third of range after rejection from 1809.
Panic supply climax often precedes at least a tradable rebound and marks where weak hands were forced out.
Evidence Largest volume in the dataset window with a major downside range expansion.
Breakout attempt had real participation rather than a thin drift higher.
Evidence Volume expanded well above average on the rally into 1848.
Heavy effort with poor upside result suggests overhead supply/absorption near the local high.
Evidence Highest recent volume but almost no net progress and a pronounced upper wick.
Transaction ticket SHORT Open ticket Close ticket
- Entry
- 1748.22
- Current
- 1748.22
- SL
- 1810.00
- TP
- 1658.00
Breakout retest is under pressure after a high-volume rejection at supply. Structure improved earlier in the rebound, but immediate tape favors sellers unless price quickly reclaims 1790.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on the failed-breakout risk at a key retest decision point, with stop above near-term reclaim/supply and target below the retest support failure zone.
Price
1748.22
PnL
0.00%
Side
SHORT
Open short on the failed-breakout risk at a key retest decision point, with stop above near-term reclaim/supply and target below the retest support failure zone.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on the failed-breakout risk at a key retest decision point, with stop above near-term reclaim/supply and target below the retest support failure zone.
Flat state requires an entry. Technical evidence is mixed, but the stronger immediate signal is bearish: the breakout into 1848 met heavy supply, 06-15 printed a high-volume upthrust/rejection, and 06-16 confirmed selling pressure with a bearish close below VWAP near the lower third of the range. Price is only marginally above the 1722 trigger support, so the long thesis still needs proof via reclaim of 1790, while the short thesis already has rejection evidence in hand. Under the forced-entry rule while flat, the higher-confidence side is shorting the potential failed breakout rather than buying an unconfirmed support hold.
Stop is above the 1790 reclaim level and just beyond 06-16 high/near-supply entry edge to protect against a bullish recovery. Target is set into the next lower support region for a clean failed-breakout continuation objective.
- 06-15 showed a high-volume rejection/upthrust: highest recent volume with very small body and large upper wick after probing 1839.32.
- 06-16 confirmed near-term selling pressure: bearish candle from 1791.24 to 1748.22, close below VWAP 1765.49, and close in the lower third of the range.
- Price is retesting the breakout polarity zone at 1707.3-1731.63 rather than impulsing higher, making this a fragile support test.
- Stage2 AT explicitly states that loss of 1722-1732 would negate the breakout and shift control back to sellers.
- Near-term reclaim level is 1790; price is currently below it, so buyers have not yet reasserted control.
Watch for a decisive break of 1722 to confirm failed breakout continuation, or a reclaim above 1790 to invalidate the short thesis.