2026-06-18 12:39 UTC
Scenario evidence 8 markers Open evidence Close evidence
The rally failed to hold above the 315-317 area and began forming a lower high relative to the next peak attempt.
Evidence High 316.94, close 310.26 after probing the upper range; upside acceptance weakened before the selloff.
Price stretched to a marginal new high but reversed hard and closed near the session low, signaling supply overwhelming the breakout attempt.
Evidence High 317.4, close 301.54, very large upper wick and close at 2% of range from the low on extreme volume.
This is the decisive breakdown leg that confirmed loss of support and changed the short-term structure.
Evidence Wide bearish body from 300.275 to 290.55 with heavy volume and close near the lower part of the range.
After the breakdown, price tested 287.38 and stopped falling, showing two-sided trade and possible absorption at support.
Evidence Lowest low of the decline with small real body and both upper/lower wicks after the prior washout.
The rebound into 300-302 was rejected, keeping price below the broken support band and preserving the retest-failure setup.
Evidence Opened above 300 after 06-16 strength, hit 302.07, then closed 295.95 near the lower fifth of the range and below VWAP.
Volume expanded sharply on the failed breakout, confirming active distribution/supply into strength.
Evidence 77.95M volume, among the highest in the window, paired with a large upper wick and weak close.
Heavy follow-through volume validated the breakdown rather than a one-day shakeout.
Evidence 70.11M volume on a wide bearish conviction candle extending the drop below 300.
Volume stayed elevated but downside progress slowed materially, suggesting supply was met by demand near 287-291.
Evidence 52.79M volume with the lowest low of the move, yet only a small body and balanced wicks.
Transaction ticket SHORT Open ticket Close ticket
- Entry
- 295.95
- Current
- 295.95
- SL
- 303.20
- TP
- 288.20
Daily structure remains bearish-to-mixed but tilted bearish: a high-volume breakdown was followed by a rebound that failed at broken support, leaving price below the key 300-302 supply band.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on AAPL because the daily chart still favors a breakdown-retest failure: price rejected the 300.48-302.07 supply zone and closed back below 300 at 295.95.
Price
295.95
PnL
0.00%
Side
SHORT
Open short on AAPL because the daily chart still favors a breakdown-retest failure: price rejected the 300.48-302.07 supply zone and closed back below 300 at 295.95.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on AAPL because the daily chart still favors a breakdown-retest failure: price rejected the 300.48-302.07 supply zone and closed back below 300 at 295.95.
Flat position and forced-entry rule require a new trade. The stronger technical side is short, not long, because the dominant Stage2 regime is a breakdown retest, the 06-08 failed breakout and 06-09 breakdown were both confirmed by heavy volume, and the latest 06-17 candle rejected the broken-support/supply band at 300.48-302.07 with a weak close near the lower part of the range and below VWAP. Support at 287.38-291.13 is real, so downside is not risk-free, but current evidence still favors a retest failure before any confirmed reclaim. Therefore the AT-only decision is to initiate a short against the rejected supply zone.
Stop is placed above the 302.07 rejection high to invalidate the retest-failure thesis if reclaimed. Target is placed just above the 287.38 support zone because that area has already shown absorption and could trigger a bounce.
- Stage2 AT dominant regime is explicitly 'breakdown retest'.
- 06-08 failed breakout reversal: high 317.4, close 301.54, extreme volume 77.95M, large upper wick, close near session low.
- 06-09 breakdown confirmation: wide bearish conviction candle from 300.275 to 290.55 on 70.11M volume.
- 06-17 failed reclaim: price opened 300.845, reached 302.07, then closed 295.95 near the lower fifth of the range and below VWAP 297.1015.
- Immediate overhead supply is defined at 300.48-302.07 and was rejected on the latest candle.
Watch for either continuation down toward 287.38 support or a bullish invalidation via reclaim and acceptance above 302.07.