2026-06-18 12:39 UTC
Scenario evidence 8 markers Open evidence Close evidence
Push to a fresh local high completed the upside breakout attempt and set the reference high for later failure.
Evidence Printed the 20/60-day high at 114.91 after a multi-day grind higher.
Large bearish expansion confirmed loss of breakout acceptance and started the downside displacement.
Evidence Wide-range selloff from 114.07 to 112.93 with close near the lower part of the bar.
First major flush into 111.86 established the key support that buyers defended for the rebound.
Evidence Made the recent swing low at 111.861 after several down days.
Rebound stalled under 113.55 and printed absorption/indecision rather than clean acceptance through resistance.
Evidence Small real body with long lower wick after rallying back into the broken support area.
Latest candle rejects the rebound and keeps the market under the retest zone, favoring another test lower unless reclaimed fast.
Evidence Bearish body took price from 113.335 to 112.712, closed below VWAP, with range above 20-day average.
Breakdown came with active participation, not a drift lower.
Evidence 247995 volume on a wide bearish range as the breakout failed.
Heavy volume into the 111.86 low suggests aggressive supply met responsive buying, creating the bounce point.
Evidence 307275 volume, one of the stronger recent readings, at the recent swing low.
Buyers answered the 06-09 flush with a strong reversal candle on even higher volume, proving support is still active.
Evidence Bullish conviction close near the high with 313094 volume, exceeding the prior day.
Transaction ticket SHORT Open ticket Close ticket
- Entry
- 112.71200
- Current
- 112.71200
- SL
- 113.62000
- TP
- 111.95000
Bearish retest structure remains in force: failed breakout, breakdown, rebound stall into 113.25-113.55 supply, then a fresh bearish rejection candle below VWAP. Demand exists at 111.86, but sellers have near-term control while price stays below the retest zone.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on the bearish retest failure below overhead supply, targeting a move back into the 111.86 support area while invalidating on reclaim above the supply zone.
Price
112.71200
PnL
0.00%
Side
SHORT
Open short on the bearish retest failure below overhead supply, targeting a move back into the 111.86 support area while invalidating on reclaim above the supply zone.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on the bearish retest failure below overhead supply, targeting a move back into the 111.86 support area while invalidating on reclaim above the supply zone.
Flat book requires an entry, and the stronger technical side is short. Stage2 AT shows a failed early-June breakout, a sharp markdown, then a rebound that stalled exactly into broken support turned supply at 113.25-113.55. The latest candle on 2026-06-16 is a bearish rejection from that retest, closing at 112.712 below VWAP after opening at 113.335, which confirms sellers defended the retest zone. Although 111.86 support has shown responsive demand, immediate control remains with sellers unless price reclaims 113.25-113.55. Under the forced-entry rule while flat, the bearish side has clearer confirmation than the bullish side.
Initial short risk is set above the broken-support-turned-supply zone and above the latest rejection high to avoid noise inside the retest area. Take profit is set just above the 111.86 defended support to front-run likely demand.
- Dominant regime is 'failed breakout / distribution rollover' with action context explicitly labeled 'Bearish retest after failed upside acceptance.'
- The overhead supply / polarity retest zone is 113.25-113.55, and the rebound stalled there rather than accepting back above it.
- 2026-06-15 printed indecision/absorption under resistance with high 113.544 and only a tiny body, showing the rebound was losing momentum into supply.
- 2026-06-16 then confirmed rejection: open 113.335, high 113.393, low 112.45, close 112.712, a bearish body closing below VWAP 113.1021.
- The latest bearish candle had range 0.943 with body 0.623 and above-average participation, matching the Stage2 note that downside pressure was reasserted.
Watch for continuation through 112.57 toward 111.86 support, or invalidation via reclaim back above 113.25-113.55, especially above 113.393/113.55.