2026-06-18 12:39 UTC
Scenario evidence 8 markers Open evidence Close evidence
Follow-through selling pressed into the 358 area after the late-May support failure, confirming the prior breakdown sequence.
Evidence Close at 358.99 after a heavy selloff from 380.34 on 2026-05-29 and 361.85 on 2026-06-02; this established the lower support band later reclaimed.
Deep undercut to 346.36 was rejected intraday and closed near the high, showing aggressive demand absorption at the low.
Evidence Very large lower wick, close near top of range, and the lowest swing low in the recent decline.
Price pushed back above the 366 area after the spring low, signaling that the prior breakdown zone was being reclaimed.
Evidence Recovery close at 369.35 after the 346.36 reversal, with price back into the prior breakdown band.
The rebound extended into 376 but stalled below the larger lower-high structure, marking the first real supply response after the reclaim.
Evidence High at 376.00 into the underside of the late-May/early-June damage zone.
Latest session reversed sharply from the prior rebound and closed near the low, showing rejection from overhead supply and putting the reclaim under pressure.
Evidence Bearish body >50% of range, close in bottom 17% of range, below VWAP, after failing to hold above 369-372.
Heavy volume confirmed urgency on the breakdown leg into the support band.
Evidence 55.44M volume, one of the highest readings in the recent window, with price closing near the lows.
High participation on the spring low supports the idea of capitulation followed by demand absorption.
Evidence 35.54M volume with a long lower wick and strong close off 346.36.
The rejection candle is bearish, but volume was below 20-day average, so downside pressure is visible without full expansion confirmation yet.
Evidence 24.54M volume, only 0.77x 20-day average, while price still closed weakly near the session low.
Transaction ticket SHORT Open ticket Close ticket
- Entry
- 363.79
- Current
- 363.79
- SL
- 376.60
- TP
- 347.20
Bearish-leaning breakout retest failure: rebound from capitulation low remains structurally possible, but the latest daily candle shows rejection from supply and pressure on reclaimed support.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on the failed rebound retest: price was rejected from 372.1-376.0 supply and closed weakly back near the 358.1-362.0 support band, favoring a reclaim failure test lower.
Price
363.79
PnL
0.00%
Side
SHORT
Open short on the failed rebound retest: price was rejected from 372.1-376.0 supply and closed weakly back near the 358.1-362.0 support band, favoring a reclaim failure test lower.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on the failed rebound retest: price was rejected from 372.1-376.0 supply and closed weakly back near the 358.1-362.0 support band, favoring a reclaim failure test lower.
Flat account with forced-entry rule requires a position. Technical evidence leans bearish over bullish here: the rebound from 346.36 stalled at 376.00, the latest candle reversed sharply from 372.33 to close at 363.79 near the session low, and price failed to hold above 369-372. Although 358.08-362.02 support has not fully broken and bearish volume was not extreme, the immediate momentum and location favor a short over a long because entry is occurring after visible rejection from overhead supply, with nearby invalidation above that supply zone.
Stop is set just above the 372.08-376.00 supply zone to avoid noise while invalidating the rejection thesis if reclaimed. Take profit is set just above the 346.36 spring low/demand zone to exit before likely support response.
- 06/16 rebound high reached 376.00 and stalled directly into the 372.08-376.00 overhead supply zone.
- 06/17 candle opened 369.125, traded up to 372.33, then sold off to close 363.79 near the low 362.02, showing failed follow-through after the rebound.
- Latest candle had a bearish body greater than 50% of its range and closed in the bottom 17% of the range.
- Latest close was below VWAP (363.79 vs 365.0182 VWAP), confirming weak session control.
- Stage2 marks 358.08-362.02 as the key reclaimed support/polarity band now under pressure.
Watch for a decisive break below 358.08 to confirm downside continuation, or a reclaim back above 372.08 to invalidate the short thesis.