Real Vision — Finance Briefing
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-07-02
OPEN SOURCECHANNELReal Vision
Why Bitcoin Still Can’t Catch a Bid?| Trading The Markets w/ Kris Bullock & Bijan Maleki
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11 intervals • swipe left
Why Bitcoin Still Can’t Catch a Bid?| Trading The Markets w/ Kris Bullock & Bijan Maleki
The block primarily promotes the Monarch personal finance app, highlighting its features and a promotional offer.
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00:00–05:00
- The block primarily promotes the Monarch personal finance app, highlighting its features and a promotional offer.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- Liquidity remains in a contraction phase, with only a slight bounce observed in the monthly rate of change.
- The VIX has stabilized around 15-16, which is a positive sign for previously volatile stock markets.
- Real rates have leveled off after tightening, contributing to a more stable market environment.
- Bitcoin closed below a significant support resistance line for the first time but has since recovered above it.
- Despite a bullish divergence on the RSI, Bitcoin's momentum has weakened, suggesting potential continued downward pressure.
- The speaker anticipates that Bitcoin may experience significant price fluctuations in the coming weeks, with a possibility of prices dropping into the fifties.
- Our interpretation: The current market conditions indicate that Bitcoin's price may remain under pressure due to ongoing liquidity contraction and weakening momentum, which could lead to further volatility.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is directly discussed in terms of price pressure and market conditions.
AUDUSD
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
EURUSD
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
GBPUSD
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
NZDUSD
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
USDCAD
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
USDCHF
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
USDDKK
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
USDJPY
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
USDNOK
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
USDPLN
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
USDSEK
The discussion on liquidity contraction and its effects on Bitcoin indicates a strong link to USD dynamics.
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10:00–15:00
- Bitcoin's recent price action has been under pressure, with a bottoming flag signal appearing but requiring confirmation through subsequent candle closures above a specific level.
- The current trend for Bitcoin is characterized by red candles and a downward trajectory, indicating a bearish outlook on both daily and weekly timeframes.
- The strengthening dollar negatively impacts non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold, suggesting an inverse correlation between the dollar's value and Bitcoin's price.
- Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing significant outflows, with total Bitcoin held in ETFs dipping below that held in treasuries, marking a concerning trend for institutional interest.
- While tech stocks are performing well, Bitcoin and similar assets are struggling due to their lack of yield and revenue generation, making them more sensitive to dollar strength.
- Our interpretation: The current market conditions suggest that Bitcoin's price may remain under pressure due to ongoing liquidity contraction and weakening momentum, which could lead to further volatility.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is directly discussed as being under pressure due to market conditions.
AUDUSD
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
EURUSD
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
GBPUSD
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
NZDUSD
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
USDCAD
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
USDCHF
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
USDDKK
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
USDJPY
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
USDNOK
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
USDPLN
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
USDSEK
The discussion highlights the strengthening dollar's impact on Bitcoin.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- The capitulation of institutional investors aligns with the necessary conditions for confirming the market's bottom during the bear phase.
- The Clarity Act's delay until 2027 introduces additional uncertainty in the crypto market, as its passage is anticipated to facilitate institutional investment.
- Even if the Clarity Act is passed, it may not lead to an immediate influx of liquidity or a swift transition to a bull market for Bitcoin.
- While Bitcoin faces downward pressure, assets like hyperliquid are exhibiting a neutral trend, suggesting a sideways movement rather than outright negativity.
- Our interpretation: The current market dynamics indicate that Bitcoin's price may continue to experience pressure due to liquidity constraints and a lack of momentum, potentially leading to increased volatility.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is directly discussed in the context of price pressure and market dynamics.
AUDUSD
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
EURUSD
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
GBPUSD
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
NZDUSD
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
USDCAD
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
USDCHF
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
USDDKK
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
USDJPY
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
USDNOK
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
USDPLN
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
USDSEK
The discussion on liquidity constraints and the strong dollar indicates a direct impact on USD.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- Venice recently completed a funding round, achieving a billion-dollar valuation and generating 20 to 30 million in new investments, which is a positive sign for its long-term viability.
- Despite being one of the better performers in the crypto space, Venice is currently cooling off after a strong run, indicating a potential short-term correction.
- Is characterized as a speculative asset, lacking the real-world adoption necessary to sustain its recent rally despite its fundamental strengths.
- Arrow is noted as a solid performer, benefiting from its partnership with Coinbase and maintaining a position above the track line, indicating relative strength compared to other assets.
- Useless experienced a breakdown but quickly rebounded above its track line, demonstrating resilience despite the current red candle.
- Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest that speculative assets like Near may struggle to maintain momentum without increased adoption, while established partnerships like Arrow's with Coinbase could provide a buffer against broader market volatility.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is directly discussed as facing pressure and needing catalysts.
ETHUSD
Ethereum is relevant as a major altcoin in the crypto market.
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25:00–30:00
- Bitcoin Cash has shown signs of a reversal, indicated by a bottoming candle and a subsequent higher close, suggesting potential resilience.
- Ethereum is currently exhibiting weakness, with red signals prevailing and no significant bottoming or reversal indicators present.
- Solana is demonstrating relative strength, having moved above its track line with three consecutive green dots and a green candle, indicating a positive technical outlook.
- The speaker advises patience in the current market, recommending against heavy investments in major cryptocurrencies due to anticipated anemic performance over the next few months.
- While some altcoins are showing strength, the overall market sentiment remains weak, with many assets not appearing favorable at this time.
- Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest a cautious approach to major cryptocurrencies, as the absence of strong bullish signals and the potential for continued weakness in Bitcoin and Ethereum may lead to further speculative pressure, impacting overall market liquidity and investor sentiment.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is directly discussed as being under pressure in the current market.
SOLUSD
Solana is noted for showing relative strength compared to other cryptocurrencies.
AUDUSD
The discussion on liquidity and market sentiment suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
EURUSD
The discussion on liquidity and market sentiment suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
GBPUSD
The discussion on liquidity and market sentiment suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
NZDUSD
The discussion on liquidity and market sentiment suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDCAD
The discussion on liquidity and market sentiment suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDCHF
The discussion on liquidity and market sentiment suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDDKK
The discussion on liquidity and market sentiment suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDJPY
The discussion on liquidity and market sentiment suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDNOK
The discussion on liquidity and market sentiment suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDPLN
The discussion on liquidity and market sentiment suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
FULL
30:00–35:00
- Sweet's price action shows consistent downward signals and lacks confirmed reversal patterns, resembling Ethereum's current trend.
- A bullish divergence on the RSI for Sweet suggests that downward pressure is easing, but the overall outlook remains weak.
- Tron has seen a significant decline, reversing from a previous upward trend and returning to its lows, indicating a risk-off sentiment.
- XRP is setting lower lows and appears to be gaining strength to the downside, reflecting a deteriorating market position.
- B&B is breaking down from its sideways range, although it shows some signs of exhaustion and potential bullish divergence.
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35:00–40:00
- XRP has not significantly broken out of its historical trading range since 2017, indicating persistent resistance levels.
- Circle's stablecoin has recently shown a downtrend, with a red candle appearing for the first time in its history on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
- Circle's price is influenced by the broader crypto market, indicating that despite its viable business model, its performance is tied to market sentiment and trends.
- The speaker expresses uncertainty about Circle as an investment, noting that its price movements are erratic and often reflect the overall crypto market rather than its financial fundamentals.
- The speaker emphasizes that while Circle has a solid product market fit, its price is currently trapped in a meme coin narrative, complicating its investment appeal.
- Our interpretation: The persistent resistance levels for XRP and the downtrend in Circle's stablecoin highlight the challenges in the current crypto market, suggesting that investors may need to reassess their positions in these assets.
INSTRUMENTS
XRPUSD
XRP is directly discussed in terms of its trading range and resistance levels.
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40:00–45:00
- Coinbase has outperformed Circle, recovering from an earlier dip and showing an upward trend, suggesting it may be a more favorable investment for stablecoin exposure.
- Coinbase benefits from multiple revenue streams, including institutional holdings, ETFs, Treasury yields, trading fees, and custody services, making it less dependent on stablecoins compared to Circle.
- Despite experiencing a 66% drawdown from its peak, Coinbase's diversified revenue model may help mitigate volatility, although it remains correlated with the overall performance of the crypto market.
- Coinbase's extensive involvement in various aspects of crypto, including stablecoins and prediction markets, positions it as a significant player within the crypto ecosystem.
- Our interpretation: Coinbase's diversified revenue streams and recovery trajectory suggest it may serve as a more stable investment option in the volatile crypto market, potentially attracting investors seeking lower risk exposure.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is mentioned as being under pressure and a key focus in the discussion.
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45:00–50:00
- Coinbase's performance has largely tracked sideways with Bitcoin since 2022, indicating a higher beta to Bitcoin's price movements.
- In 2023 and 2024, when Bitcoin was gaining, Coinbase also kept pace with its percentage gains, suggesting a correlation between the two assets.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Coinbase-Bitcoin chart to determine whether holding Coinbase is more advantageous than holding Bitcoin directly.
- A significant trend reversal has occurred in the Canton cryptocurrency, which had been trending upwards but recently broke down before reaching its previous high, indicating potential volatility.
- The recent downturn in Canton was unexpected, as it had been showing a cup and handle pattern, suggesting a need for further investigation into the underlying causes.
- Our interpretation: The correlation between Coinbase and Bitcoin suggests that investors may consider Coinbase as a leveraged play on Bitcoin's price movements, but recent volatility in Canton highlights the risks associated with crypto investments.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is directly discussed as a key asset under pressure.
AUDUSD
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
EURUSD
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
GBPUSD
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
NZDUSD
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDCAD
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDCHF
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDDKK
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDJPY
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDNOK
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDPLN
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDSEK
The discussion on liquidity and rates suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
FULL
50:00–55:00
- The speaker indicates a potential black swan event could occur within the next one to four months, possibly marking the final low of the current bear market.
- This observation is consistent with historical market cycles, where such events have acted as catalysts for significant price movements.
- The speaker presents the potential black swan event as a buying opportunity, suggesting that lower prices could be capitalized on.
- There is a warning about the negative impact of a major company collapse, such as FTX, on investor confidence and overall market stability.
- Our interpretation: A black swan event could create a significant buying opportunity for investors, but the risk of market destabilization from major company failures remains a critical concern.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is directly discussed as being under pressure and a potential buying opportunity.
AUDUSD
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
EURUSD
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
GBPUSD
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
NZDUSD
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDCAD
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDCHF
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDDKK
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDJPY
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDNOK
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDPLN
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDSEK
The discussion on liquidity and market conditions suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-06-30
OPEN SOURCECHANNELReal Vision
Everyone Wrong About The Dollar? with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays LIVE @10am ET
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Everyone Wrong About The Dollar? with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays LIVE @10am ET
The block primarily promotes the Monarch personal finance app, offering a discount for the first year.
FULL
00:00–05:00
- The block primarily promotes the Monarch personal finance app, offering a discount for the first year.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- The memory markets have experienced notable volatility, with indications of an approaching market top that the speaker considers unsubstantiated.
- A significant breakthrough in biotech healthcare stocks has occurred, marking the first advancement in depression treatments in 50 years, which has positively influenced the speaker's financial position.
- The U.S. dollar has reached its highest value against the Japanese yen since 1986, reflecting a stronger performance than previously expected.
- The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, with Iran seeking to enhance its leverage and control over the region, while the U.S. responds to perceived past humiliations.
- Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, oil prices have remained stable, with continued flows of oil, although not at pre-war levels, suggesting a shift in shipping routes.
- Our interpretation: The current strength of the dollar against the yen, coupled with stable oil prices, indicates a potential reassessment of U.S. monetary policy and its implications for dollar liquidity and market positioning.
INSTRUMENTS
USDJPY
The block directly analyzes the USD/JPY exchange rate, indicating its relevance.
AUDJPY
The block highlights the U.S. dollar's performance against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to JPY.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to USD.
EURJPY
The block highlights the U.S. dollar's performance against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to JPY.
EURUSD
The block discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to USD.
GBPJPY
The block highlights the U.S. dollar's performance against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to JPY.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to USD.
USDDKK
The block discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to USD.
USDNOK
The block discusses the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct connection to USD.
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10:00–15:00
- The U.S. dollar has reached its highest value against the Japanese yen since 1986.
- There is a notable disconnect between the hawkish rhetoric of central banks and the declining market pricing of inflation.
- Rising real interest rates, which typically support a stronger dollar, are currently observed.
- The Federal Reserve's recent projections reflect a more hawkish stance due to previous underestimations of inflation.
- Current data suggests that inflation may be transitory, casting doubt on its persistence.
- Our interpretation: The strength of the U.S. dollar is driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot amidst declining inflation expectations, potentially leading to increased dollar liquidity and impacting global trade dynamics.
INSTRUMENTS
USDJPY
The block directly analyzes the U.S. dollar's strength against the Japanese yen.
AUDJPY
The block mentions the U.S. dollar's strength against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct FX relationship.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and its implications for inflation and interest rates.
EURJPY
The block mentions the U.S. dollar's strength against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct FX relationship.
EURUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and its implications for inflation and interest rates.
GBPJPY
The block mentions the U.S. dollar's strength against the Japanese yen, indicating a direct FX relationship.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and its implications for inflation and interest rates.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and its implications for inflation and interest rates.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and its implications for inflation and interest rates.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and its implications for inflation and interest rates.
USDDKK
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and its implications for inflation and interest rates.
USDNOK
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and its implications for inflation and interest rates.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- Recent monetary policy has shifted from rate cuts to hikes, suggesting a potential forecasting error.
- Kevin Warsh has stated that the FOMC should respond to market signals rather than dictate them.
- Inflation markets are declining rapidly, prompting speculation on whether Warsh will adjust his stance.
- Warsh's upcoming panel in Portugal is anticipated to be significant for the European Central Bank's inflation outlook.
- Core inflation data from Spain appears soft, indicating a possible easing trend in the Eurozone.
- Our interpretation: The swift change in U.S. monetary policy, coupled with declining inflation signals, may lead to a stronger dollar as market expectations for interest rates adjust, influencing foreign exchange rates and risk asset valuations.
INSTRUMENTS
USDCHF
The block's discussion on U.S. monetary policy directly impacts USD.
EURUSD
The block discusses inflation trends in the Eurozone, impacting EUR.
AUDUSD
The U.S. monetary policy changes can impact AUD through commodity links. Also: The block discusses U.S. monetary policy changes and inflation signals.
GBPUSD
The U.S. monetary policy changes can also impact GBP through relative strength. Also: The block discusses U.S. monetary policy changes and inflation signals.
NZDUSD
The block discusses U.S. monetary policy changes and inflation signals.
USDCAD
The block discusses U.S. monetary policy changes and inflation signals.
USDDKK
The block discusses U.S. monetary policy changes and inflation signals.
USDJPY
The discussion on U.S. monetary policy impacts the USD, affecting JPY as well. Also: The block discusses U.S. monetary policy changes and inflation signals.
USDNOK
The block discusses U.S. monetary policy changes and inflation signals.
USDPLN
The block discusses U.S. monetary policy changes and inflation signals.
USDSEK
The block discusses U.S. monetary policy changes and inflation signals.
EURCHF
The block mentions the European Central Bank's inflation outlook.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- Job creation in leisure and hospitality saw a significant boost due to the World Cup, with ongoing hiring in June.
- The speaker predicts job numbers will be softer than the previous month, potentially dropping below 100K, which is below consensus expectations.
- A de-acceleration in tax indicators during June suggests a weaker job market than previously anticipated.
- Popular trades, such as being long the dollar, may experience a reversal as market participants adjust their positions ahead of the vacation season.
- Our interpretation: The expected softening in job numbers and inflation data could prompt a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy, potentially weakening the dollar and leading to a reallocation of investments towards other currencies, such as the Japanese yen.
INSTRUMENTS
USDJPY
The block discusses the potential weakening of the dollar and buying of the Japanese yen.
AUDJPY
The interpretation suggests a potential reallocation towards the Japanese yen as the dollar weakens.
AUDUSD
The block discusses expected softening in job numbers and inflation data, which can influence Fed policy.
EURJPY
The interpretation suggests a potential reallocation towards the Japanese yen as the dollar weakens.
EURUSD
The block discusses expected softening in job numbers and inflation data, which can influence Fed policy.
GBPJPY
The interpretation suggests a potential reallocation towards the Japanese yen as the dollar weakens.
GBPUSD
The block discusses expected softening in job numbers and inflation data, which can influence Fed policy.
NZDUSD
The block discusses expected softening in job numbers and inflation data, which can influence Fed policy.
USDCAD
The block discusses expected softening in job numbers and inflation data, which can influence Fed policy.
USDCHF
The block discusses expected softening in job numbers and inflation data, which can influence Fed policy.
USDDKK
The block discusses expected softening in job numbers and inflation data, which can influence Fed policy.
USDNOK
The block discusses expected softening in job numbers and inflation data, which can influence Fed policy.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- Andreas indicates that there are no signs of a slowdown in AI, despite discussions surrounding the token expenditure index and DRAM spot price.
- He clarifies that the decline in the token expenditure index does not signal a red flag for the AI trade, as it reflects a shift towards Chinese open-source models rather than an overall decrease in volume.
- Andreas notes that memory pricing has accelerated since the last quarter, despite previous market volatility.
- He points out that demand for memory is being front-loaded due to concerns over potential shortages linked to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran war.
- The speaker observes significant volatility in popular retail trades in memory, indicating active trading behavior among investors.
- Our interpretation: The sustained demand for memory, influenced by geopolitical factors and shifts towards Chinese models, may lead to continued price volatility in the memory sector, affecting technology stocks as investors reassess their strategies.
INSTRUMENTS
AUDJPY
The strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen is mentioned, indicating a direct relationship.
AUDUSD
The discussion on AI demand and geopolitical tensions suggests potential impacts on U.S. economic conditions.
EURJPY
The strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen is mentioned, indicating a direct relationship.
EURUSD
The discussion on AI demand and geopolitical tensions suggests potential impacts on U.S. economic conditions.
GBPJPY
The strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen is mentioned, indicating a direct relationship.
GBPUSD
The discussion on AI demand and geopolitical tensions suggests potential impacts on U.S. economic conditions.
NZDUSD
The discussion on AI demand and geopolitical tensions suggests potential impacts on U.S. economic conditions.
USDCAD
The discussion on AI demand and geopolitical tensions suggests potential impacts on U.S. economic conditions.
USDCHF
The discussion on AI demand and geopolitical tensions suggests potential impacts on U.S. economic conditions.
USDDKK
The discussion on AI demand and geopolitical tensions suggests potential impacts on U.S. economic conditions.
USDJPY
The strength of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen is mentioned, indicating a direct relationship. Also: The discussion on AI demand and geopolitical tensions suggests potential impacts on U.S. economic conditions.
USDNOK
The discussion on AI demand and geopolitical tensions suggests potential impacts on U.S. economic conditions.
FULL
30:00–35:00
- Apple's supply chain security in China may enable the company to utilize local suppliers if permitted by the Trump administration.
- There is uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's stance on allowing Apple to use Chinese memory chips, with predictions leaning towards a likely 'no' response.
- The speaker highlights the delicate balance between preventing memory chip shortages and the potential impact on consumer products, noting recent price increases for iPhones and iPads.
- The current situation regarding technology trades was forecasted during the Iran War, attributed to a front-loading of demand for memory chips.
- The second half of the year is expected to be significantly influenced by demand for AI semiconductors, impacting sectors such as consumer electronics and automotive.
- Our interpretation: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Iran War, are likely to exacerbate supply chain issues in the semiconductor market, leading to inflationary pressures in consumer electronics and potential volatility in tech stocks as demand for AI-related products continues to rise amidst supply constraints.
INSTRUMENTS
AAPL
Apple is directly discussed in relation to its supply chain and product pricing.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-06-28
OPEN SOURCECHANNELReal Vision
Why Investors Say Sentiment Looks Wrong in Crypto & Macro Markets Right Now
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Why Investors Say Sentiment Looks Wrong in Crypto & Macro Markets Right Now
Ram Ahluwalia observes that despite ongoing geopolitical risks and negative sentiment, earnings growth is anticipated to surpass 20% year-over-year, indicating a potential continuation of the bull market.
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00:00–05:00
- Ram Ahluwalia observes that despite ongoing geopolitical risks and negative sentiment, earnings growth is anticipated to surpass 20% year-over-year, indicating a potential continuation of the bull market.
- Seth Ginns points out the swift recovery of altcoins, with some assets gaining between 15% to 80% over short timeframes, reflecting bullish market conditions.
- Jeff Dorman asserts that the current market rally is largely fueled by robust earnings growth, which he describes as a significant earnings boom, with both revenues and margins on the rise.
- Dorman notes that only a limited number of crypto tokens possess equity-like traits, such as strong revenues and cash flows, which are crucial for their price increases.
- The discussion indicates that recent geopolitical events, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, have not had lasting effects on market performance, with earnings growth remaining the primary driver.
- Our interpretation: The prevailing market dynamics suggest that strong earnings momentum, especially in the context of AI-driven productivity, may sustain bullish sentiment in equities and select crypto assets, while geopolitical tensions seem to exert minimal long-term influence on market fundamentals.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
The discussion centers on the crypto market dynamics and investor sentiment.
ETHUSD
The overall positive sentiment in the crypto market may also benefit Ethereum.
ADAUSD
The discussion of altcoin rebounds suggests potential interest in ADA.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- Productivity gains from AI are contributing to lower costs and increased revenues, which are essential for an earnings boom.
- There is a stark cost disparity between proprietary AI models like Fable, which charge $50 per million tokens, and more affordable open-source alternatives.
- Current productivity improvements from AI are challenging to quantify, yet anecdotal evidence suggests widespread increases in individual productivity compared to previous years.
- The IPO market is experiencing a resurgence, highlighted by the SpaceX IPO, which may lead to a rise in public companies and positively affect public market dynamics.
- Retail investors are increasingly influencing IPOs, with platforms like Robinhood and E-Trade evolving to enable retail participation in underwriting processes.
- Our interpretation: The robust activity in the IPO market, driven by retail investor engagement and successful listings like SpaceX, may indicate a broader recovery in public market sentiment, potentially enhancing liquidity and creating a favorable environment for equities.
INSTRUMENTS
SP500
The discussion on the IPO market and retail investor engagement indicates a broader recovery in public market sentiment.
DOWJONES
The overall positive sentiment in the IPO market can influence broader market indices.
NASDAQ100
The discussion on AI and productivity gains suggests a favorable outlook for tech stocks.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- SpaceX's valuation is currently driven by retail sentiment, reflected in its price-to-sales ratio of 133 times, which is viewed as excessive.
- The company faces competition in its business lines, particularly with Starlink, which could affect its future growth and valuation.
- The trading dynamics of SpaceX resemble those in the crypto market, where low-float, high-FDV tokens often see significant price volatility shortly after their IPOs.
- Skepticism around companies like Tesla has evolved, suggesting that investors should approach SpaceX's valuation with caution.
- While Elon Musk is recognized as a remarkable entrepreneur, the distinction between entrepreneurial success and sound investment is critical for SpaceX.
- Our interpretation: The speculative environment surrounding SpaceX's IPO highlights how retail sentiment can drive valuations, potentially leading to increased volatility in tech equities and a reassessment of growth expectations in sectors like AI and space exploration.
INSTRUMENTS
TSLA
Tesla is mentioned as a company with evolving skepticism around its valuation.
SP500
The discussion of retail sentiment and IPO dynamics can influence broader market indices.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- Concerns arise regarding the quality of investors participating in the SpaceX IPO, with casual investors discussing the stock in informal settings.
- The distinction between a successful company and a sound investment is emphasized, suggesting that while SpaceX may be successful, its current valuation is questionable.
- AI is identified as a critical factor influencing GDP growth, underscoring its significant role in current market dynamics.
- Our interpretation: The speculative environment surrounding SpaceX's IPO, driven by retail sentiment, may lead to increased volatility in tech equities and necessitate a reassessment of growth expectations in sectors like AI and space exploration.
INSTRUMENTS
TSLA
The discussion around SpaceX's IPO and its speculative nature relates to Tesla due to Elon Musk's involvement.
NASDAQ100
The overall discussion on tech equities and investor sentiment impacts the broader tech index.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-06-23
OPEN SOURCECHANNELReal Vision
Is The Oil Still Flowing? w/ Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays
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Is The Oil Still Flowing? w/ Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays
Monarch is a personal finance app offering a 50% discount on the first year with promo code REALVISION, focusing on tracking finances, investments, and spending.
FULL
00:00–05:00
- Monarch is a personal finance app offering a 50% discount on the first year with promo code REALVISION, focusing on tracking finances, investments, and spending.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- The host discusses ongoing negotiations between Iran and the US, noting Iran's announcement to potentially withdraw from talks due to hostilities involving Israel.
- Despite these tensions, the host mentions that there has been positive news flow from the negotiations, although improvements are not expected to be straightforward.
- Following a recent memorandum of understanding, oil flow data indicated that oil was moving close to pre-war levels during Friday and Saturday.
- On Sunday, only one major oil cargo, approximately three to three and a half million barrels, departed the region.
- While the Strait of Hormuz is not fully normalized, the host confirms that oil is at least partially flowing, indicating some resilience in the market amid geopolitical tensions.
- Our interpretation: The geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and Israel, along with the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, may lead to fluctuations in oil supply, impacting inflation expectations and prompting central banks to adjust their monetary policies in response to changing energy prices.
INSTRUMENTS
WTI
The discussion centers on oil supply and geopolitical tensions affecting oil flow.
BRENT
Brent is closely related to WTI and is affected by similar geopolitical factors.
AUDUSD
The block discusses oil supply and geopolitical tensions, which can influence inflation and monetary policy.
EURUSD
The block discusses oil supply and geopolitical tensions, which can influence inflation and monetary policy.
GBPUSD
The block discusses oil supply and geopolitical tensions, which can influence inflation and monetary policy.
NZDUSD
The block discusses oil supply and geopolitical tensions, which can influence inflation and monetary policy.
USDCAD
The block discusses oil supply and geopolitical tensions, which can influence inflation and monetary policy.
USDCHF
The block discusses oil supply and geopolitical tensions, which can influence inflation and monetary policy.
USDDKK
The block discusses oil supply and geopolitical tensions, which can influence inflation and monetary policy.
USDJPY
The block discusses oil supply and geopolitical tensions, which can influence inflation and monetary policy.
USDNOK
The block discusses oil supply and geopolitical tensions, which can influence inflation and monetary policy.
USDPLN
The block discusses oil supply and geopolitical tensions, which can influence inflation and monetary policy.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- There is an unreported flow of oil from Abu Dhabi to the US, suggesting actual exports exceed official data.
- Approximately 25% of a war premium remains in oil prices, which have been declining since early April but are still above pre-war levels.
- Energy prices have transitioned from a rising trend to a rapid decline, with jet fuel prices in Singapore nearly halving since their peak in early April.
- Certain fertilizer products, such as urea in the US Gulf, are trading below pre-war levels, countering earlier concerns about shortages.
- Current high levels of oil shorts in futures reflect a bearish sentiment towards oil, indicating reduced risk appetite in that market.
- Our interpretation: The decline in energy prices, alongside ongoing disinflation across various sectors, suggests easing inflationary pressures that may prompt central banks to reassess interest rates and currency valuations.
INSTRUMENTS
WTI
The block discusses oil supply and pricing dynamics directly.
AUDUSD
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
EURUSD
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
GBPUSD
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
NZDUSD
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
USDCAD
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
USDCHF
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
USDDKK
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
USDJPY
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
USDNOK
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
USDPLN
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
USDSEK
The block discusses inflation and energy prices, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- The European Central Bank has maintained its position on interest rate hikes despite a decline in energy prices, indicating a commitment to its monetary policy.
- The Federal Reserve has revised its inflation projections downward but does not foresee a significant drop in inflation, even with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The speaker expresses a strong belief in betting against the inflation forecasts of both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, particularly noting that the ECB's mild inflation scenario anticipates an oil price of $88 per barrel, which exceeds current market levels.
- A positive liquidity channel is expected, with a substantial increase in liquidity projected over the next four to five weeks, which may bolster asset prices.
- The current sideways growth environment could prompt a shift towards more cyclical sectors, such as industrials, as liquidity conditions improve.
- Exports from South Korea in the memory sector have surged by 60-65% year over year, reflecting robust demand and increasing spot prices for DRAM, which may benefit companies like Micron.
- Our interpretation: The interplay between declining inflation expectations and stable liquidity conditions suggests a potential for asset price support, while central banks' persistent inflation forecasts may keep monetary policy tight, influencing the USD liquidity and rate differential channels.
INSTRUMENTS
MU
Micron is mentioned as benefiting from increased demand and rising DRAM prices.
AUDUSD
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed.
EURUSD
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed. Also: The European Central Bank's stance on interest rates despite energy price declines is highlighted.
GBPUSD
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed.
NZDUSD
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed.
USDCAD
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed.
USDCHF
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed.
USDDKK
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed.
USDJPY
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed.
USDNOK
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed.
USDPLN
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed.
USDSEK
The Federal Reserve's inflation projections and interest rate outlook are discussed.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- Sterling assets have underperformed during the recent downturn, suggesting potential buying opportunities if the new prime minister acknowledges fiscal realities.
- Finium Therapeutics, which specializes in LSD and psilocybin products for mental health treatment, saw a 55% increase in its stock price following positive phase three results.
- There is optimism regarding micro trades in the health sector, particularly in companies innovating treatments for mental health disorders.
- Our interpretation: The potential for recovery in sterling assets and the strong performance of health sector stocks may indicate shifting investor sentiment towards riskier assets as fiscal policies evolve.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- MicroStrategy's next major refinance date is in 2028, indicating no immediate pressure on its balance sheet.
- Concerns exist regarding MicroStrategy's leveraged model, which could create a negative feedback loop if refinancing occurs in a hostile market environment.
- There are currently no indications that MicroStrategy will need to sell Bitcoin to meet obligations in the near term, based on the refinancing calendar.
- The macro regime has shifted towards lower inflation, which has yet to be fully recognized by central banks.
- Traders are advised to shift their focus from energy products to opportunities arising from the inflation regime shift.
- Our interpretation: The stability of MicroStrategy's balance sheet and the shift in inflation dynamics suggest potential opportunities for investors to reassess risk exposure and explore sectors benefiting from changing macroeconomic conditions.
INSTRUMENTS
MSTR
MicroStrategy is directly discussed regarding its refinancing and Bitcoin holdings.
AUDUSD
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
EURUSD
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
GBPUSD
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
NZDUSD
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
USDCAD
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
USDCHF
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
USDDKK
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
USDJPY
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
USDNOK
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
USDPLN
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
USDSEK
The discussion on inflation dynamics suggests a potential impact on monetary policy.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-06-21
OPEN SOURCECHANNELReal Vision
The Hidden AI Trade: Land, Power, & Compute | With Mike Alfred
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The Hidden AI Trade: Land, Power, & Compute | With Mike Alfred
Mike Alfred emphasizes that many investors are neglecting the critical fundamentals of scarce land, power, and infrastructure, which are essential for AI development.
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00:00–05:00
- Mike Alfred emphasizes that many investors are neglecting the critical fundamentals of scarce land, power, and infrastructure, which are essential for AI development.
- He notes that the past few years have posed significant challenges for investors, marked by events such as the banking crisis and looming recessions that have altered market dynamics.
- Alfred highlights that AI has emerged as the only consistently profitable trade over the last three years, particularly benefiting companies like Nvidia, which have substantial exposure to AI technologies.
- He explains the transition of Bitcoin miners into infrastructure developers, stressing the necessity for high-quality, scalable infrastructure that can operate efficiently with low energy costs.
- Alfred contrasts the common belief that data center development would predominantly occur in Northern Virginia with his view that regions with abundant renewable energy, such as West Texas, are more advantageous for such developments.
- Our interpretation: The focus on scarce resources like land and power in AI infrastructure suggests a potential shift in investment strategies, where the scarcity of these assets may drive future market dynamics, particularly in the context of rising energy costs and the evolving landscape of digital assets.
INSTRUMENTS
NVDA
Nvidia is directly mentioned as a company benefiting from AI technologies.
BTCUSD
Bitcoin miners transitioning into infrastructure developers suggests a positive outlook for Bitcoin.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- The primary challenge in AI development is not chip availability but the capacity to establish robust infrastructure that operates at low costs.
- Companies like XAI and SpaceX have shifted their focus, with SpaceX now concentrating on expanding its neocloud business after finding their initial AI compute demand was not competitive.
- The demand for data centers is being driven by the convergence of sectors such as drug discovery and high-frequency trading.
- The AI sector is still in its nascent stages, with potential for significant growth following periods of contraction, similar to the internet bubble of the early 2000s.
- Companies like Anthropic are currently at the forefront of the AI industry, demonstrating positive EBITDA figures even prior to their public offering.
- Our interpretation: The emphasis on establishing scalable infrastructure and the evolving dynamics of AI investment suggest that scarcity in resources like land and power will increasingly influence market strategies and valuations.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- In Q1 of 2023, Iron's existing sites were valued at two to four times its market cap.
- Iron's stock price rose from approximately one dollar to a peak of 75 or 76 dollars in November 2023, reflecting a substantial upside potential.
- The AI infrastructure sector is divided between companies that co-locate and those, like Iron, that aim to control compute resources directly.
- There is currently insufficient compute capacity to meet demand, indicating that any additional compute resources would be quickly utilized.
- Our interpretation: The focus on building scalable infrastructure and the scarcity of resources such as land and power will increasingly shape market strategies and valuations in the AI sector.
INSTRUMENTS
NVDA
Nvidia is directly mentioned as a key player in AI infrastructure.
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is mentioned in the context of AI infrastructure and long-term value.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- SpaceX developed its own data center named Colossus, achieving notable success as recognized by Nvidia.
- CoreWeave reportedly collaborates with over 20 external providers for its physical operations, indicating a less vertically integrated model compared to others in the industry.
- The speaker cautions that companies relying on external hosting providers may encounter economic challenges and risks in service delivery due to limited control over the entire infrastructure stack.
- There is an expectation that asset-light companies will pursue infrastructure acquisitions, while infrastructure-focused companies may eventually develop their own cloud services.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-06-16
OPEN SOURCECHANNELReal Vision
Is The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays
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Is The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays
Monarch offers a personal finance app that tracks accounts, investments, and spending, with a promotional discount for the first year.
FULL
00:00–05:00
- Monarch offers a personal finance app that tracks accounts, investments, and spending, with a promotional discount for the first year.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- The signing ceremony for the US-Iran deal is scheduled for later this week in Switzerland, marking a significant geopolitical development.
- The memorandum of understanding allows Iran to sell its oil globally without sanctions for the next 60 days.
- The US administration has reportedly managed to export approximately three million barrels a day from the Persian Gulf, potentially affecting global oil supply dynamics.
- Concerns regarding the uranium question in the deal have been raised by some members of the US administration.
- Current assessments indicate that the oil market is experiencing a supply surplus, suggesting a favorable shift in the balance between supply and demand.
- Our interpretation: The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of sanctions on Iranian oil could lead to increased global oil supply, which may suppress oil prices and impact inflation expectations, thereby influencing energy equities and commodities markets.
INSTRUMENTS
WTI
The deal allows Iran to sell oil globally, directly impacting oil supply.
BRENT
The geopolitical developments affect global oil markets, including Brent.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- Over 125 million barrels have reportedly left the Strait of Hormuz since the launch of Operation Freedom, with a daily flow estimated at three million barrels.
- Both Iranian and US administrations had incentives to obscure oil flows, as Iran managed to export oil along its coastline while the US blockade could not interfere in territorial waters.
- Current estimates suggest the oil market is in a mild surplus, ranging between one and two million barrels a day, despite contrary reports.
- If sanctions on Iranian oil are lifted for the next 60 days, it could add significantly to global supply, potentially reaching close to four million barrels a day.
- The departure of the United Arab Emirates from the OPEC Plus group indicates a lack of consensus among Arab producers on supply management, which may lead to increased supply and downward pressure on oil prices.
- Our interpretation: The potential lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil, combined with the current supply surplus, suggests a risk of declining oil prices below $70, which could impact inflation expectations and energy equities as market participants adjust to the new supply dynamics.
INSTRUMENTS
WTI
The block discusses the potential increase in Iranian oil supply and its impact on prices.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- The speaker criticizes the European Central Bank for raising interest rates just before a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating poor timing.
- The European Central Bank forecasts a growth rate of 0.8% for the Eurozone in 2026, despite experiencing negative growth in the first quarter.
- To align with its growth projections, the European Central Bank would require three quarters of approximately 0.5% growth, which the speaker views as overly optimistic.
- The speaker suggests that central banks, including the European Central Bank, may need to reconsider their inflation concerns due to recent oil price developments.
- The resolution in the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in a notable decline in oil prices, potentially affecting inflation expectations and central bank strategies.
- Our interpretation: The recent resolution in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the European Central Bank's questionable timing on interest rate hikes, indicates a potential shift in inflation dynamics. As oil prices decrease, central banks may be pressured to reassess their inflation outlook, which could lead to adjustments in interest rate strategies and impact equities and commodities markets.
INSTRUMENTS
BRENT
The resolution in the Strait of Hormuz is linked to a decline in oil prices.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- The export curve and subsequent decline in statements have reduced the risk of a left tail scenario for companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, indicating these models may now be too big to fail.
- The combined revenue projections for Anthropic and OpenAI reflect a shift in market sentiment, as government involvement may provide a safety net, alleviating concerns among portfolio managers.
- SpaceX's IPO marked the largest in history, with a notable price increase of 15-20% on its first trading day, showcasing strong market demand for growth stocks.
- Total IPO proceeds this year are projected to reach approximately $300 billion, which, while significant, is relatively modest in historical context when adjusted for inflation.
- Our interpretation: Recent developments in the AI sector, particularly regarding export restrictions and potential government support, suggest a shift in risk dynamics that could foster a more favorable environment for growth stocks and tech IPOs.
INSTRUMENTS
AAPL
The discussion highlights the potential for growth in the AI sector, which includes companies like Anthropic and OpenAI.
MSFT
Microsoft's involvement with OpenAI positions it as a key player in the AI growth narrative.
TSLA
Tesla's innovation in technology aligns with the broader growth narrative in the tech sector.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- The current IPO season is characterized as extreme but not reaching record highs, indicating a resemblance to the year preceding a cycle peak.
- Concerns arise regarding a potential shift in market activity towards cheaper models ahead of the IPOs of certain tech companies, as major firms like Microsoft have curtailed their cloud spending.
- There is a notable year-on-year growth of nearly 90% in South Korean exports for the first 10 days of the month, although this figure may be less dramatic when adjusted for workday variations.
- Despite the record nominal IPO achieved recently, there remains potential for a market rally, supported by a favorable liquidity outlook expected to persist until August.
- The oil market is currently experiencing a surplus, a development that was not widely anticipated a few months ago, with future trends contingent on whether China resumes its purchasing activities.
- Our interpretation: The dynamics in the IPO market and the oil surplus suggest a potential reallocation of capital, with tech investments facing scrutiny while commodity markets hinge on China's demand recovery.
INSTRUMENTS
MSFT
Microsoft's cloud spending cuts are directly mentioned, impacting its market outlook.
KOSPI
The significant growth in South Korean exports suggests a positive macro outlook for the region.
WTI
The oil market surplus and China's purchasing activities are discussed, affecting oil prices.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-06-14
OPEN SOURCECHANNELReal Vision
Why This El Niño Could Be Different with Shawn Hackett & Ash Bennington
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Why This El Niño Could Be Different with Shawn Hackett & Ash Bennington
A super El Niño is characterized by sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific exceeding normal levels by two degrees Celsius or more.
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00:00–05:00
- A super El Niño is characterized by sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific exceeding normal levels by two degrees Celsius or more.
- Since 1850, only seven super El Niños have occurred, highlighting their rarity and potential impact.
- The current super El Niño may mirror the severe agricultural disruptions experienced during 1877-1878.
- Not all super El Niños result in increased weather volatility, but this one is believed to carry heightened risks for global food supplies.
- If current models and media forecasts hold true, significant repercussions for food prices, inflation, and geopolitical stability could arise.
- Our interpretation: The potential for substantial agricultural disruption from this super El Niño may lead to increased volatility in food-related markets, prompting investors to reassess risk exposure in commodities and inflation-sensitive assets.
INSTRUMENTS
WHEAT
The discussion centers on agricultural disruptions due to the super El Niño.
CORN
Corn is also a key agricultural commodity likely to be impacted by the same weather disruptions.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans are another critical crop that could be affected by the super El Niño's impact on agriculture.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- The 1877-1878 El Niño caused widespread drought across Asia, impacting countries such as India, China, and Australia simultaneously.
- This drought was notable for its extensive geographical reach, affecting the entire Asian continent rather than isolated regions, which amplified its effects.
- During this period, significant famines occurred due to insufficient food supply, with rice and wheat prices surging by 600%.
- While modern technology may alleviate some famine effects, the risk of substantial food supply disruptions remains a concern.
- The highest sea surface temperature anomaly recorded during the 1877-1878 El Niño was 2.7 degrees above normal, contributing to its severe impact.
- Our interpretation: A similar El Niño event today could lead to significant agricultural disruptions, impacting food prices and inflation, which may in turn affect geopolitical stability and economic conditions across Asia and beyond.
INSTRUMENTS
WHEAT
The discussion highlights potential agricultural disruptions due to El Niño, which can significantly affect wheat supply.
CORN
Corn is also a staple crop that could be affected by agricultural disruptions from El Niño.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans are another key agricultural product that may face supply challenges due to the discussed El Niño effects.
GOLD
Increased food prices and inflation concerns can drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- The duration of the sea surface temperature anomaly will significantly influence the severity of the situation, with a longer duration potentially leading to more severe impacts.
- Sea surface temperatures may reach levels comparable to those seen in 1877, with peak anomalies expected to be in the upper twos.
- The current negative state of the Indian Ocean dipole could allow for a broader impact across Asia, similar to the conditions in 1877.
- High concentrations of Arabian Peninsula sand in the atmosphere could suppress moisture and further impact the monsoon season in India and China.
- While historical famines resulted in millions of deaths, modern infrastructure may mitigate the severity of food shortages, though high prices are still expected.
- Our interpretation: A similar El Niño event today could lead to significant agricultural disruptions, impacting food prices and inflation, which may in turn affect geopolitical stability and economic conditions across Asia and beyond.
INSTRUMENTS
WHEAT
The discussion on agricultural disruptions and food prices directly relates to wheat supply and demand.
CORN
Corn is also a staple crop that could be affected by the same agricultural disruptions discussed.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans are another key agricultural product that could face supply challenges.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- A strong El Niño combined with a neutral Indian Ocean dipole can lead to a very active Western Pacific typhoon season, which tends to draw moisture from Asia and transport it to the Arctic.
- If the Western typhoon season is very active, it could exacerbate moisture loss in Asia, potentially impacting agricultural outputs.
- Our interpretation: The interplay of these climatic factors could lead to substantial agricultural disruptions, influencing food prices and inflation, which may affect geopolitical stability and economic conditions across Asia and beyond.
INSTRUMENTS
WHEAT
The discussion on agricultural disruptions directly relates to wheat production.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-06-08
OPEN SOURCECHANNELReal Vision
Panic or No Panic? with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays
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Panic or No Panic? with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays
Promotes the Monarch personal finance app, offering a discount for the first year.
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00:00–05:00
- Promotes the Monarch personal finance app, offering a discount for the first year.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- The job report released early in the morning significantly triggered market movements, contradicting earlier expectations of a weaker labor market.
- Substantial upward revisions to the previous month's job report have undermined the narrative of a weak labor market, impacting Federal Reserve policy considerations.
- The NASDAQ experienced one of its historically worst Fridays, rolling back to levels seen in mid to late May, indicating a shift in market momentum.
- The current market structure has changed, suggesting that momentum players, particularly CTAs, will struggle to buy from here, leading to a more selective market environment.
- The concept of a VaR shock is raised, indicating that some funds may need to reduce their risk exposure due to increased implied volatility following the job report.
- Our interpretation: The recent job report and its upward revisions signal a stronger labor market, which may lead to tighter monetary policy as the Federal Reserve faces pressure to adjust rates in response to rising inflation expectations. This could result in increased volatility in equities and a shift in investor sentiment towards more cautious risk-taking, particularly in growth sectors.
INSTRUMENTS
NASDAQ100
The NASDAQ index is directly mentioned as experiencing significant market movements.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- Transitioning from a low volatility environment to a more unstable one is likely to force levered players to take short positions through June.
- Concerns arise for momentum players and funds operating under a risk-weighted mandate, as they may need to adjust their risk exposure due to increased market volatility.
- Fundamental players might view current market conditions as an opportunity to buy the dip, influenced by the pricing of tokens and hardware.
- The job market is currently creating approximately 175,000 jobs per month, exceeding initial expectations and potentially leading to a drop in the unemployment rate.
- The leisure and hospitality sectors have shown improvement in job numbers, partly due to the upcoming World Cup, which may account for around 50,000 jobs this month.
- Kevin Warsh is under pressure to address inflation and job growth ahead of his press conference, making it unlikely for the Federal Reserve to maintain an easing bias in June.
- Our interpretation: The stronger-than-expected job growth and sector-specific improvements may compel the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, increasing market volatility and shifting investor sentiment towards caution.
INSTRUMENTS
DOWJONES
The discussion of job growth and market volatility is relevant to the overall economic outlook.
SP500
Increased market volatility and caution among investors can impact the broader equity market.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- The labor market has rebounded significantly, but further improvements are unlikely, indicating a potential flatlining of unemployment rates in the latter half of the year.
- Kevin Warsh faces pressure to address inflation and job growth concerns, which may complicate the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining low interest rates.
- The SpaceX IPO is oversubscribed, targeting around $75 billion in proceeds, which could affect market liquidity as funds are allocated for this event.
- Major tech companies, including Alphabet and Meta, are raising significant capital through the equity market, potentially leading to liquidity constraints.
- The current liquidity situation is concerning, especially with upcoming IPOs and equity raises that may have already strained available market resources.
- Our interpretation: The combination of strong job growth and significant capital raises by major firms may compel the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, increasing market volatility.
INSTRUMENTS
GOOGL
Alphabet is also highlighted for raising significant capital in the equity market.
META
Meta is mentioned as a major tech company raising significant capital.
SP500
The discussion on major tech companies impacts the broader market sentiment.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- Over $100 billion is typically withdrawn from private markets each month, with recent SpaceX and Alphabet sales accounting for approximately $110 to $115 billion.
- To sustain this level of cash flow, there must be significantly less activity in private markets or liquidity must be drawn from other already liquid markets.
- The ongoing transition of IPOs from private to public markets is likely to further reduce liquidity in private markets.
- The price of AI tokens is critical for balancing demand and supply in data centers, with rising token prices indicating increasing demand.
- A negative rate of change in token pricing could lead to a downturn in the data center market, impacting hardware trades and overall market sentiment.
- Our interpretation: The combination of substantial capital raises from major firms and the dynamics of AI token pricing may compel the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, increasing market volatility.
INSTRUMENTS
GOOGL
Alphabet is mentioned as a major player in the capital raises affecting liquidity.
SP500
The discussion on IPOs transitioning from private to public markets suggests broader market implications.
BTCUSD
The block discusses AI token pricing, which is relevant to the broader crypto market.
ETHUSD
The dynamics of token pricing are critical for the crypto market, including Ethereum.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- The cease-fire in the Middle East is fragile but alive, reflecting cautious optimism about the peace process.
- Concerns arise that renewed official involvement from the US could disrupt current trends in oil and fertilizer prices.
- Fertilizer prices are currently lower than expected despite supply damage, while oil prices remain manageable and not destructive to demand.
- Everything related to the Hormuz crisis is down, including oil and fertilizer prices, while risk assets are up, indicating a shift in market dynamics.
- The speaker asserts that the war is over, which could influence market perceptions moving forward.
- Our interpretation: Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel and Iran, may lead to fluctuations in energy prices, impacting inflation expectations and potentially affecting equities and commodities as market participants reassess risk in light of any renewed conflict.
INSTRUMENTS
WTI
The discussion on oil prices directly relates to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
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