2026-06-18 12:39 UTC
Scenario evidence 8 markers Open evidence Close evidence
Final push to 275.44 marked the last major high before persistent lower highs and lower lows took control.
Evidence Price peaked and then sold off for more than two weeks without recovering that high.
Large bearish displacement accelerated the loss of prior support and confirmed supply in control.
Evidence Wide bearish body, close near the low, range expansion, and volume surge to 17.79M.
Flush to 196.9 drew aggressive response buying, creating the first meaningful demand reaction after the breakdown.
Evidence Long lower wick, close back near the upper part of the range, and the highest volume in the window at 25.06M.
The first bounce into 205-212 met overhead supply and could not close strong, warning the rebound was only a retest.
Evidence Very small body with a dominant upper wick after the climactic bounce.
Price rejected the rebound area and undercut the 06-12 low zone, putting the market back into active markdown.
Evidence Bearish conviction candle, close near session low, below VWAP, with volume 1.43x the 20-day average.
Volume expanded materially on the breakdown, confirming urgency from sellers rather than a quiet drift lower.
Evidence 17.79M volume with a wide spread down candle.
Extreme volume at the flush low shows capitulation and responsive buying, but not yet durable accumulation.
Evidence 25.06M volume, long lower wick, and close back above VWAP.
Heavy volume returned on the failure of the bounce, confirming sellers defended the retest rather than exhausting.
Evidence 10.73M volume, 95th percentile vs 60 days, on a wide bearish close near the low.
Transaction ticket SHORT Open ticket Close ticket
- Entry
- 196.28
- Current
- 196.28
- SL
- 211.99
- TP
- 186.00
ADBE is in a bearish breakdown-retest-failure regime. The reflex bounce failed beneath 205.65-211.99 and the latest daily candle reasserted supply near the lows on strong volume.
OPEN SHORT
Open short because the dominant D1 structure is bearish and the 06-17 candle confirmed a failed rebound retest back into active markdown near the lows.
Price
196.28
PnL
0.00%
Side
SHORT
Open short because the dominant D1 structure is bearish and the 06-17 candle confirmed a failed rebound retest back into active markdown near the lows.
OPEN SHORT
Open short because the dominant D1 structure is bearish and the 06-17 candle confirmed a failed rebound retest back into active markdown near the lows.
No position is open and this forced-entry bucket must choose a side. The stronger technical side is short: the 06-11 breakdown established bearish control, the 06-12 bounce was only reactive, the 06-15 rebound into 205.65-211.99 was rejected, and 06-17 closed with bearish conviction near the low on elevated volume while undercutting the prior climactic low zone. That combination favors continuation lower unless price reclaims the failed-rebound supply band.
Using the failed rebound supply high 211.99 as the hard stop because a reclaim above that level would negate the immediate retest-failure thesis. Take profit is set at 186.0 for downside continuation beyond the currently pressured low zone.
- 06-11 was a breakdown expansion candle with wide bearish body, close near the low, and volume surge to 17.79M, confirming supply control.
- 06-12 produced a climactic flush to 196.9 with responsive buying, but Stage2 explicitly notes it did not produce enough follow-through to reverse trend.
- 06-15 showed failed rebound behavior with a dominant upper wick into 205.65-211.99, identifying that band as overhead supply.
- 06-17 was a bearish conviction candle: open 204.02, high 206.4999, low 195.02, close 196.28, closing near the session low and below VWAP 200.3867.
- 06-17 volume was 10.73M, described as elevated/95th percentile and renewed supply confirmation, showing sellers defended the retest rather than exhausted.
Watch for acceptance below 195.02-196.9 to confirm continuation; a reclaim back above 205.65 and especially 211.99 would weaken the short thesis.