2026-06-18 12:39 UTC
Scenario evidence 7 markers Open evidence Close evidence
Sharp probe to 557 was rejected intraday and closed back near the upper half of the range, marking responsive demand at the recent low.
Evidence Lower-wick rejection candle at the current 20-day low area.
Strong rebound day lifted price back toward the broken 600 area, starting the retest sequence after the 557 defense.
Evidence Wide bullish body from 579 area into 593 with close above VWAP.
Push above 600 stalled quickly; the upper wick shows supply into the retest rather than clean acceptance.
Evidence High at 605.81 with notable upper wick and lighter volume than the prior rebound day.
Large bearish conviction candle fully reversed the retest and closed near the low, confirming the bounce above 600 failed.
Evidence Body consumed most of the day range, close near session low, below VWAP, with above-average volume.
Volume expanded on the spring-style low test, showing buyers were active enough to reject the breakdown attempt.
Evidence Reversal from 557 came with solid participation and strong lower wick.
The move through 600 lacked strong volume expansion, weakening the case for sustained upside acceptance.
Evidence Volume was notably lighter than surrounding sessions despite testing 605.81.
Expanded volume on the bearish reversal confirms active supply and validates the failed breakout/retest narrative.
Evidence Volume rose above 20-day average on the widest down day of the recent sequence.
Transaction ticket SHORT Open ticket Close ticket
- Entry
- 567.58
- Current
- 567.58
- SL
- 592.00
- TP
- 548.00
Failed breakout regime remains dominant. Strong bearish reversal from 600-606 and expanded sell volume favor downside continuation, but nearby 557 support prevents a strong rating.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on failed-breakout continuation pressure while price sits near the lower edge of support after a high-volume bearish rejection from 600-606.
Price
567.58
PnL
0.00%
Side
SHORT
Open short on failed-breakout continuation pressure while price sits near the lower edge of support after a high-volume bearish rejection from 600-606.
OPEN SHORT
Open short on failed-breakout continuation pressure while price sits near the lower edge of support after a high-volume bearish rejection from 600-606.
Flat book and forced-entry rule require a position. The stronger technical side is short because the 600-606 retest failed, 06-17 printed a wide bearish conviction candle on expanded volume, and price fully retraced the rebound back into the 557.01-570.6 support band. Support at 557 can still bounce, so the short is tactical rather than strong-conviction trend expansion; risk is placed above the nearest reclaim area and target is set just above the next key downside decision zone.
Stop loss is placed at the lower edge of the failed-retest supply zone; a move back above 592 would materially weaken the short thesis. Take profit is set below the 557.01 spring low to capture a confirmed support failure while respecting that support may initially react.
- 06-17 candle was a bearish conviction bar: open 592.002, high 593.81, low 566.19, close 567.58, with body 24.422 on range 27.62 and close near the session low.
- 06-17 volume expanded to 20,478,308.93, identified in the snapshot as supply confirmation and above surrounding sessions.
- 06-16 push to 605.81 showed weak acceptance above 600, with a notable upper wick and lighter volume than 06-15.
- The 06-15 to 06-16 rebound into 600-606 was fully retraced on 06-17, confirming failed breakout/retest structure.
- Current price 567.58 is back inside the 557.01-570.6 support band, meaning downside pressure is active and a break of 557 would reopen continuation lower.
Watch whether price breaks 557.01 decisively for continuation or instead reclaims 570-576 and starts negating the breakdown pressure.