2026-06-18 12:39 UTC
Scenario evidence 8 markers Open evidence Close evidence
Rebound topped at 232.28 and failed to extend, leaving the most recent major lower high that started the current downswing.
Evidence Swing high followed by immediate multi-day decline; price never regained this high afterward.
Deep intraday break to 199.34 was rejected, showing responsive demand at the lower edge of the current range.
Evidence Very large lower wick with close back near the upper part of the day’s range after undercutting prior support.
The day after the flush, sellers regained control and closed near the low, showing the 2026-06-09 bounce was not accepted as a durable reversal.
Evidence Bearish body, close near session low, and failure to hold above the prior day’s recovery area.
Strong rebound candle reached 212.71 but stalled below the larger breakdown zone, defining the failed retest high of the current swing.
Evidence Wide bullish body into resistance, followed immediately by two bearish sessions that erased the breakout attempt.
Current candle extends the rejection from 2026-06-15 and closes in the lower quarter of its range, keeping pressure on nearby support.
Evidence Second consecutive bearish close below VWAP and below the prior day’s close, with price back near the 199-203 support band.
High volume accompanied a sharp undercut and recovery, signaling active two-way trade and demand absorption near 199.
Evidence 180.96M volume with extreme lower wick and close well off the low.
The rebound into 212.45 had decent participation, so buyers did show up; however it was not strong enough to reclaim the larger supply zone.
Evidence 149.94M volume on a wide bullish body closing near the high.
Price is falling again, but volume is below both 20-day and 60-day averages, so the latest leg lower is pressuring support without full capitulation.
Evidence 128.36M volume, about 0.74x 20-day average and 0.80x 60-day average.
Transaction ticket SHORT Open ticket Close ticket
- Entry
- 204.65
- Current
- 204.65
- SL
- 212.72
- TP
- 199.50
Bearish structure remains intact after a failed rebound, with price pressing key support and no technical reclaim of resistance yet.
OPEN SHORT
Open short because bearish lower-high structure remains intact and price is pressing support after a failed rebound; use support-failure thesis with risk above failed rebound supply.
Price
204.65
PnL
0.00%
Side
SHORT
Open short because bearish lower-high structure remains intact and price is pressing support after a failed rebound; use support-failure thesis with risk above failed rebound supply.
OPEN SHORT
Open short because bearish lower-high structure remains intact and price is pressing support after a failed rebound; use support-failure thesis with risk above failed rebound supply.
Flat state requires an entry. The stronger technical side is bearish: the 2026-06-15 rebound failed at 212.7107, the last two sessions rejected that bounce, and 2026-06-17 closed at 204.65 below VWAP and near the lower quarter of the range while leaning on the 199.34-203.44 support band. Although support has shown demand before and downside volume is not expanding aggressively, the dominant Stage2 AT regime is failed rebound / breakdown continuation, so the forced-entry choice favors short over long while price remains below 208.34-212.71 supply and below the 205.19 pivot.
Stop is above the failed rebound high/supply at 212.7107. Take profit is set just above the 199.34 support trigger to monetize a likely test/break area while respecting that support has previously produced demand.
- Stage2 AT dominant regime is 'failed breakout / breakdown from lower high'.
- 2026-06-15 rebound peaked at 212.7107 and was identified as a lower-high rebound peak / failed retest high.
- 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-17 immediately rejected that rebound, erasing the breakout attempt.
- Latest candle on 2026-06-17 closed 204.65, below VWAP 206.1298, below the prior close, and in the lower quarter of its range.
- Price is back near the 199.34-203.44 demand band, with Stage2 noting pressure on support rather than confirmed capitulation.
Watch for a break below 199.34 to confirm support failure, or a reclaim of 208.34-212.7107 to weaken/negate the short thesis.