INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-09-14
OPEN SOURCECHANNELKitco NEWS
One Fed Hike Isn't The Mistake, Five Could Break The Economy | David Rosenberg
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One Fed Hike Isn't The Mistake, Five Could Break The Economy | David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg indicates that the 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed 5% for the first time since 2023, signaling a notable shift in market expectations.
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00:00–05:00
- David Rosenberg indicates that the 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed 5% for the first time since 2023, signaling a notable shift in market expectations.
- Rosenberg expresses doubt regarding the accuracy of the recent jobs report, suggesting that the reported 162,000 jobs created is likely to be revised downward due to historical data adjustments.
- He questions the legitimacy of the 0.3% increase in core CPI for August, citing discrepancies in the underlying data, including negative trends in hotel and motel rates.
- Rosenberg warns that if the Federal Reserve acts on potentially flawed data, it risks making a significant policy error that could impact economic stability.
- Despite the questionable data, the market is currently pricing in over a 90% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike, reflecting a strong reaction to the recent economic indicators.
- Rosenberg notes that the surge in oil prices, with diesel exceeding six dollars, adds complexity to the inflation narrative, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.
- Our interpretation: The interplay between rising commodity prices and the Fed's response to potentially unreliable economic data could lead to significant volatility in U.S. dollar liquidity and interest rate expectations.
INSTRUMENTS
USDCAD
The discussion on Fed policy and economic data impacts the USD, which is relevant for USD pairs.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike and its implications.
EURUSD
The Fed's policy decisions can influence the USD, impacting its value against the euro. Also: The block discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike and its implications.
GBPUSD
The Fed's actions can influence the USD, which is relevant for GBPUSD. Also: The block discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike and its implications.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike and its implications.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike and its implications.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike and its implications.
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05:00–10:00
- Core inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's target for five years, raising doubts about the efficacy of current rate hikes in addressing historical inflation issues.
- Current inflation metrics are influenced by external factors such as geopolitical tensions and tariffs, complicating the clarity of economic conditions.
- Nominal wage growth is declining despite assertions of a tight labor market, indicating a potential disconnect between employment conditions and inflationary pressures.
- The inflation observed is largely attributed to rising oil prices, with minimal evidence of widespread pass-through effects in other sectors of the economy.
- Data reveals that 45% of the components in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) were either stagnant or declining, suggesting a broader trend of stagnation or deflation across various goods and services.
- Our interpretation: The current economic landscape suggests that while oil prices may drive short-term inflation, the deceleration in wage growth and the mixed signals from CPI data could lead to a reassessment of U.S. monetary policy, impacting dollar liquidity and interest rate expectations.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The Fed's monetary policy impacts the USD, which in turn affects the EUR/USD exchange rate.
USDCAD
The discussion on inflation and rate hikes can influence USD/CAD dynamics.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and inflation metrics, which directly relate to the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and inflation metrics, which directly relate to the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and inflation metrics, which directly relate to the USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and inflation metrics, which directly relate to the USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and inflation metrics, which directly relate to the USD.
WTICOUSD
Rising oil prices are mentioned as a factor in inflation, which can impact WTI crude oil prices.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- Labor costs are the primary driver in the overall price structure of the economy, yet this aspect is overlooked in the current inflation narrative.
- Decelerating nominal wages combined with price shocks lead to negative real wages and reduced consumer spending, which in turn squeeze corporate profit margins.
- The speaker characterizes rising energy prices as a tax on the private sector, suggesting that this cost squeeze will become evident in forthcoming economic data.
- The anticipated Fed rate hike is perceived as an attempt to reinforce anti-inflation credibility, though its actual impact on inflation may be limited.
- Markets have already factored in a 4.5% funds rate for the next year, despite previous projections from the most hawkish FOMC member being lower.
- Our interpretation: The interplay of rising energy costs and a potential Fed rate hike could pressure corporate profit margins and consumer spending, leading to a deceleration in inflation and influencing the strength of the dollar as the market reassesses the implications of tighter monetary policy amid cooling wage growth.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The block discusses inflation and monetary policy, which are central to EURUSD dynamics.
USDCAD
The Fed's actions and expectations can influence USD against CAD.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Fed's monetary policy, which directly impacts USD.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike and its implications for the economy.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike and its implications for the economy.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike and its implications for the economy.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike and its implications for the economy.
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15:00–20:00
- The economy is currently growing at approximately one and a half to two percent, indicating it is not expanding at its potential.
- The market is reacting in a knee-jerk manner, pricing in about a hundred basis points of tightening over the next 12 months, which may not accurately reflect inflationary pressures.
- The current situation is compared to 2008, suggesting that the Fed's potential rate hikes could mirror the ECB's mistake of raising rates just before the financial crisis.
- Markets have front-run the Fed's actions, now pricing in not just one but potentially two rate hikes this year, despite the economy's current state.
- If the Fed raises rates multiple times, it could destabilize the economy, as the total AI boom relies on low financing costs and significant energy requirements.
- Our interpretation: The combination of rising energy costs and potential Fed rate hikes could pressure corporate profit margins and consumer spending, leading to a deceleration in inflation and influencing the strength of the dollar.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The block discusses the Fed's actions which directly influence the USD.
USDCAD
The Fed's monetary policy decisions are relevant to USD movements.
USDCHF
The discussion on Fed rate hikes directly impacts USD valuation.
AUDUSD
The block discusses potential Fed rate hikes and their implications for the economy.
GBPUSD
The block discusses potential Fed rate hikes and their implications for the economy.
NZDUSD
The block discusses potential Fed rate hikes and their implications for the economy.
USDJPY
The block discusses potential Fed rate hikes and their implications for the economy.
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20:00–25:00
- A slowdown in capital spending plans could alleviate some pressure on general interest rates.
- The current 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury is attractive, especially compared to the stronger economy and higher inflation seen in October 2023.
- Fiscal gridlock following the November midterms could lead to reduced aggregate demand, which may benefit the bond market.
- The Treasury's influence on interest rates primarily comes from its control over the supply of bonds, rather than demand, which is managed by the Fed.
- In late 2023, the Treasury's announcement to flood the market with bills while reducing longer-dated Treasury issuance led to a significant drop in the 10-year Treasury yield.
- Our interpretation: The combination of fiscal gridlock and the Treasury's supply management could create conditions for a bond market recovery, potentially leading to lower yields and improved investor sentiment.
INSTRUMENTS
SPX500USD
The analysis of Treasury yields and economic conditions suggests broader implications for the stock market.
US2000USD
The commentary on fiscal gridlock and its potential effects on aggregate demand can impact small-cap stocks.
US30USD
The discussion on Treasury yields and fiscal gridlock suggests a bond market recovery, impacting broader market indices.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and Treasury yields.
EURUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and Treasury yields.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and Treasury yields.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and Treasury yields.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and Treasury yields.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and Treasury yields.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and Treasury yields.
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25:00–30:00
- The Treasury primarily influences interest rates through its control over bond supply, unlike the Fed, which manages demand through the overnight rate.
- The Fed's influence on long-term interest rates is limited, as it does not control the 10-year Treasury yield.
- A shift in Treasury issuance strategy away from longer-dated securities contributed to a bull flattening of the Treasury curve in late 2023.
- Slowing corporate debt issuance, driven by reduced capital spending from major AI companies, may negatively affect demand growth and the broader economy.
- Upcoming fiscal changes, including the cessation of fiscal stimulus, are expected to significantly reshape the economic landscape and bond market dynamics.
- Our interpretation: Elevated bond yields, combined with a strategic shift in Treasury issuance and declining corporate debt growth, may signal a potential reversal in yield trends, prompting investors to refocus on bonds and possibly leading to a repricing of equities.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The Fed's monetary policy and its impact on yields are crucial for the USD, which directly affects the EURUSD pair.
USDCAD
The discussion on Treasury yields and Fed policy directly impacts the USD, making this FX pair relevant.
USDJPY
The Fed's influence on interest rates and bond yields is significant for the USD, affecting the USJPY pair.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and bond yields, which directly relates to the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and bond yields, which directly relates to the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and bond yields, which directly relates to the USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rates and bond yields, which directly relates to the USD.
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30:00–35:00
- The net short position in the market is nearing a record high, indicating a potential for a short covering rally if yields decline.
- A decrease in yields by 20 basis points to 4.80% could provoke significant reactions from short sellers, potentially driving yields down to 4.5%.
- Gold has demonstrated resilience, trading around $4,253, and despite the dollar's strength and rising real interest rates, it has not traded lower as expected.
- The primary demand for gold continues to come from global central banks, which are persistent buyers, suggesting stable demand amid market volatility.
- The guest expresses doubts about the long-term strength of the US dollar, indicating that current fiscal policies and potential political gridlock may lead to a prolonged bear market for the dollar.
- Our interpretation: The combination of high net short positions in the market and persistent central bank demand for gold may create conditions for a significant market shift, potentially leading to a reassessment of asset valuations.
INSTRUMENTS
US30USD
The discussion on yields and market positioning suggests a broader impact on US equities.
AUDUSD
The discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications for the US dollar.
EURUSD
The discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications for the US dollar.
GBPUSD
The discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications for the US dollar.
NZDUSD
The discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications for the US dollar.
USDCAD
The discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications for the US dollar.
USDCHF
The discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications for the US dollar.
USDJPY
The discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications for the US dollar.
XAUUSD
Gold's resilience amid market volatility and central bank demand is a key focus.
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35:00–40:00
- The portfolio includes foreign bonds, currencies, commodities, gold, and international equity, with a focus on emerging markets and Japan.
- The guest maintains a long position in base materials, including gold and rare earths, while expressing a bearish outlook on the cyclical services sector.
- They do not own gold miners but hold gold bullion, alongside investments in energy infrastructure and aerospace defense.
- The speaker emphasizes a favorable supply-demand outlook for commodities, despite a bearish view on the overall economy.
- The guest cautions that aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could adversely affect the Treasury component of their portfolio and the commodity sector.
- Our interpretation: The investment strategy is designed to capitalize on a long-term downtrend in the US dollar, focusing on tangible assets and commodities expected to benefit from supply deficits, while hedging against potential negative impacts from aggressive monetary tightening.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The Fed's monetary policy decisions influence the EUR/USD exchange rate significantly.
USDCAD
The discussion of Fed rate hikes and their impact on the economy directly relates to USD/CAD dynamics.
AUDUSD
The block discusses aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which directly impacts the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which directly impacts the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which directly impacts the USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which directly impacts the USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which directly impacts the USD.
XAUUSD
The block discusses gold's resilience and its role as a hard asset amidst economic uncertainty.
BCOUSD
The discussion of commodities includes a favorable supply-demand outlook, which can affect base commodities.
FULL
40:00–45:00
- David Rosenberg states that Rosenberg Research has developed a diversified portfolio reflecting their research, catering to clients across various sectors including currencies, commodities, and equities.
- The portfolio is structured to maintain low to moderate risk while investing in currencies, commodities, fixed income, and equities.
- Rosenberg reports a 60% return on the portfolio over the past three and a half years, initially starting with only himself as the unit holder.
- He highlights the need for a genuinely diversified investment option for Canadians, noting a scarcity of such vehicles in the market.
- Rosenberg recognizes that most investors prefer a stable portfolio that can endure market fluctuations without the necessity of predicting every economic change.
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45:00–50:00
- David Rosenberg clarifies that the model portfolio is intended for long-term investment, catering to those with a market cycle perspective rather than short-term trading.
- He emphasizes the importance of rebalancing and taking profits, asserting that realizing gains is crucial for successful investing.
- The portfolio is constructed based on comprehensive research across all four asset classes, aligning with their highest conviction investment views.
- David Jarvis, the portfolio manager, stresses the significance of focusing on long-term investment theses rather than reacting to short-term market fluctuations.
- Jarvis notes that while some investment theses may yield quick gains, it is wise to take profits and explore new opportunities when they arise.
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50:00–55:00
- David Rosenberg believes the US dollar is likely to experience devaluation over the next five to ten years.
- Countries are actively seeking to minimize their exposure to US investments through various strategies, including pension plans.
- Investors are encouraged to maintain a minimum investment horizon of six months to a year, as the fund will adapt and rebalance according to macroeconomic shifts.
- Short-term fluctuations in the US dollar should be regarded as noise and should not dictate investment strategies.
- Our interpretation: The anticipated devaluation of the US dollar may lead to increased volatility in global markets, prompting investors to reassess their exposure to US assets and consider diversifying into alternative investments.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The block's implications for the US dollar's future directly influence the EUR/USD exchange rate.
USDCAD
The discussion on US dollar devaluation is relevant for USD/CAD as it reflects broader market sentiment.
USDCHF
The block's focus on the US dollar's devaluation directly impacts USD/CHF dynamics.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the anticipated devaluation of the US dollar.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the anticipated devaluation of the US dollar.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the anticipated devaluation of the US dollar.
USDJPY
The block discusses the anticipated devaluation of the US dollar.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-09-13
OPEN SOURCECHANNELKitco NEWS
Rate-Hike Odds Went From 48% to 88% in One Month | This WeeK
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Rate-Hike Odds Went From 48% to 88% in One Month | This WeeK
The market currently estimates an 88.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, marking the first increase since July 2023.
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00:00–05:00
- The market currently estimates an 88.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, marking the first increase since July 2023.
- Ran Neuner argues that raising interest rates in response to high oil prices is ineffective, as inflation is driven by the oil supply shock rather than an overheating economy.
- Brien Lundin warns that a sustained campaign of rate hikes cannot be afforded, as debt servicing costs are already exceeding national defense spending.
- Ron Paul states that the debt and malinvestment must eventually be liquidated, indicating that there is no painless way to address the economic issues at hand.
- Gold prices tend to drop when Kevin Warsh discusses potential rate hikes, but they quickly recover as smart money re-enters the market.
- Our interpretation: The Federal Reserve's potential rate hike, driven by inflation linked to energy prices, could lead to significant market volatility, as rising rates and high debt servicing costs may pressure equities and create a risk-off sentiment.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, impacting USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, impacting USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, impacting USD.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike and its implications.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike and its implications.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike and its implications.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike and its implications.
XAUUSD
The block mentions gold prices in relation to interest rate expectations.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- Kevin Warsh highlighted that inflation is not convincingly slowing and reaffirmed the Federal Reserve's firm 2% inflation target.
- Following the latest inflation data, market expectations for a rate hike jumped from approximately 70% to 88.7% in a single morning, indicating a significant shift in sentiment.
- Warsh noted that current financial conditions are not restrictive, implying that monetary policy remains supportive despite rising inflation pressures.
- Three guests on the program contended that the Federal Reserve may not be able to raise rates without exacerbating existing economic challenges, particularly given the current debt levels.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-09-12
OPEN SOURCECHANNELKitco NEWS
Gold Must Hold This Level Before the Fed, or $4,000 Comes Back Into Play | Gary Wagner
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Gold Must Hold This Level Before the Fed, or $4,000 Comes Back Into Play | Gary Wagner
Gary Wagner identifies a critical support level for gold futures at approximately $4,350, with major support just below $4,000, indicating potential price vulnerability.
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00:00–05:00
- Gary Wagner identifies a critical support level for gold futures at approximately $4,350, with major support just below $4,000, indicating potential price vulnerability.
- Following a 0.4% increase in August inflation, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike has surged to nearly 89%, which has contributed to fluctuations in gold prices.
- Wagner observes that the correlation between gold and the US dollar has become more nuanced, influenced by the dollar's role in gold pricing dynamics.
- The recent spike in crude oil prices is expected to elevate inflation, which traditionally supports a bullish outlook for gold.
- Market expectations for a September rate hike have shifted dramatically from 48% to 88.7%, reflecting rapid changes in trader sentiment and positioning.
- Wagner emphasizes that the current market dynamics are influenced by multiple factors, complicating the traditional analysis of gold price movements.
- Our interpretation: The interplay between rising inflation, increased rate hike expectations, and the evolving relationship between gold and the dollar suggests that gold's price trajectory will be closely tied to future monetary policy decisions and inflation trends.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold prices are directly discussed, with critical support levels identified.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations and inflation, which directly relates to the USD.
EURUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations and inflation, which directly relates to the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations and inflation, which directly relates to the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations and inflation, which directly relates to the USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations and inflation, which directly relates to the USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations and inflation, which directly relates to the USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations and inflation, which directly relates to the USD.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned as having resistance levels, indicating its relevance to the commodities market.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- The probability of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting increased from around 60% to 86-87% within a week.
- The Federal Reserve typically does not make rapid changes in market sentiment regarding interest rates, as bills and bonds have remained stable for an extended period.
- Geopolitical scenarios and a favorable global economy are currently influencing the Fed's decision-making on rate hikes.
- Crude oil prices significantly impact inflation, as petroleum is embedded in various products beyond just fuel.
- Gold's price has fluctuated, reaching a low just below $4,000 after hitting an all-time high in January, with current support identified at approximately $4,350.
- Our interpretation: The interplay of rising inflation, heightened rate hike expectations, and the evolving relationship between gold and the dollar suggests that gold's price trajectory will be closely linked to future monetary policy decisions.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The block discusses inflation and Fed policy, which directly affects the USD, making EUR/USD relevant.
USDCHF
The block's focus on Fed rate expectations directly impacts the USD, making USD/CHF relevant.
USDJPY
The discussion of the Fed's rate hike expectations directly influences USD, making USD/JPY relevant.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations, which directly relates to the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations, which directly relates to the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations, which directly relates to the USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations, which directly relates to the USD.
XAUUSD
The block discusses gold prices in relation to Fed policy, making XAU/USD relevant.
XAGUSD
The block mentions silver's volatility, which is relevant to XAG/USD.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- Gary Wagner identifies major support for gold just below $4,000 and a key level at $4,350 for December futures.
- $18 billion flowed into gold ETFs in August, marking the second biggest month ever, with holdings reaching a record 4,189 tonnes.
- Wagner notes that the price of crude oil significantly influences inflation expectations and, consequently, gold prices.
- He compares current market conditions to those in 2011-2012, indicating that while past corrections took years, current corrections may unfold in months.
- Wagner questions whether the recent accumulation of gold is due to investors seeking long positions after a decline from record highs.
- Our interpretation: The interplay of rising inflation, heightened rate hike expectations, and the evolving relationship between gold and the dollar suggests that gold's price trajectory will be closely linked to future monetary policy decisions.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The block discusses the relationship between gold and the US dollar, which is relevant for EUR/USD.
USDCAD
The discussion of inflation and rate hikes in the US directly impacts the USD, making USD/CAD relevant.
USDCHF
The block's focus on US monetary policy impacts the USD, making USD/CHF relevant.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations, which directly relates to the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations, which directly relates to the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations, which directly relates to the USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations, which directly relates to the USD.
XAGUSD
The block mentions silver's volatility and resistance levels, making XAG/USD relevant.
XAUUSD
The block discusses gold prices and their support levels, making XAU/USD relevant.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- Gold has found support just below $4,000 following a significant price correction.
- Consumer sentiment has declined to 47.8, with households anticipating 4.6% inflation next year, exceeding previous estimates.
- The GLD ETF experienced its largest monthly inflow ever, reflecting strong retail interest in gold accumulation.
- Silver has demonstrated a series of lower highs and has found support around $56, indicating potential price stabilization.
- The speaker advocates for investors to allocate 10% to 15% of their portfolios to precious metals as a hedge against market volatility.
- Our interpretation: The interplay of rising inflation expectations and fluctuating consumer sentiment suggests that gold and silver may serve as effective hedges against economic uncertainty. As the Fed navigates rate decisions amidst these pressures, the demand for precious metals could increase, impacting their prices and the broader commodities market.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold is discussed as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned as having potential price stabilization.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and inflation expectations.
EURUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and inflation expectations.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and inflation expectations.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and inflation expectations.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and inflation expectations.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and inflation expectations.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and inflation expectations.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- The gold-silver ratio has risen from 65 to 68 in two days, indicating stronger performance for silver.
- During significant price increases, silver typically outperforms gold by 80%, but it is more volatile and has less liquidity.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of allocating 10% of a portfolio to precious metals as a hedge against inflation and market volatility.
- The speaker recalls that silver was once referred to as 'poor man's gold' and mentions accumulating more silver than gold due to its lower price point.
- Gold has historically served as an inflation hedge, with more investors recognizing its value as an insurance policy.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- Investors are advised to incrementally accumulate gold through smaller dollar value purchases rather than making large investments at once.
- Silver's resistance level is identified at approximately $71.40, which traders should monitor as prices increase.
- The speaker highlights the significance of dollar-cost averaging in precious metals investments to reduce the effects of purchasing at elevated prices.
- Silver is noted for its higher volatility compared to gold, often experiencing sharper price fluctuations.
- The speaker is optimistic that gold and silver will achieve new all-time highs, with potential future prices for gold projected between $6,000 and $7,000.
FULL
30:00–35:00
- Gary Wagner indicates that fundamental market events can sway gold prices, creating bullish or bearish sentiment.
- Wagner identifies a critical support level for gold at approximately $4,350, with significant support just below $4,000.
- He notes that gold's recent breach of the $4,350 level required a recovery by the next trading session, highlighting market volatility.
- Wagner stresses the necessity of monitoring key price levels, which remain valid until chart indicators suggest otherwise.
- He advises traders to consider the implications of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on market dynamics.
- Our interpretation: The Federal Reserve's decision, alongside current technical support levels for gold, may lead to heightened volatility in gold and silver prices, prompting investors to reassess their allocations in precious metals.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold prices are directly discussed with specific support levels mentioned.
AUDUSD
The Federal Reserve's decision is discussed, indicating a direct impact on the USD.
EURUSD
The Federal Reserve's decision is discussed, indicating a direct impact on the USD.
GBPUSD
The Federal Reserve's decision is discussed, indicating a direct impact on the USD.
NZDUSD
The Federal Reserve's decision is discussed, indicating a direct impact on the USD.
USDCAD
The Federal Reserve's decision is discussed, indicating a direct impact on the USD.
USDCHF
The Federal Reserve's decision is discussed, indicating a direct impact on the USD.
USDJPY
The Federal Reserve's decision is discussed, indicating a direct impact on the USD.
XAGUSD
Silver prices are mentioned with resistance levels, indicating potential market movements.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-09-09
OPEN SOURCECHANNELKitco NEWS
Ron Paul: The People Ought To Own The Gold, Not The Government
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Ron Paul: The People Ought To Own The Gold, Not The Government
Ron Paul recalls his grandmother's words about war, stating that the people do not start wars, but governments do.
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00:00–05:00
- Ron Paul recalls his grandmother's words about war, stating that the people do not start wars, but governments do.
- The Treasury has increased its bond buyback plan from $2 billion to as much as $6 billion, yet yields have still risen.
- Ron Paul suggests that the current bond-buying strategy could potentially lead to another round of quantitative easing.
- He expresses skepticism about the government's ability to manage monetary policy effectively, indicating that they are trying to obscure the truth about the money supply.
- Paul warns that the government's actions may be designed to create chaos, prompting the public to seek government intervention for stability.
- Our interpretation: The Treasury's aggressive bond buyback strategy, which may signal a return to quantitative easing, could lead to increased market volatility and rising yields, impacting the dollar's value and potentially triggering inflationary pressures across asset classes.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The implications of the Treasury's actions on the dollar are relevant for EUR/USD dynamics.
USDCHF
The discussion on bond buybacks and monetary policy directly relates to USD movements.
USDJPY
The bond buyback strategy is likely to influence USD dynamics in the FX market.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Treasury's bond buyback program and its implications for monetary policy.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Treasury's bond buyback program and its implications for monetary policy.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Treasury's bond buyback program and its implications for monetary policy.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Treasury's bond buyback program and its implications for monetary policy.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- The Treasury Secretary's assertion of 'I am the house now' reflects a significant shift in the government's self-perception regarding its role in the market.
- Dr. Paul expresses doubt about the effectiveness of the government's monetary policy, suggesting it has operated without accountability for years, potentially leading to economic instability.
- He warns that increased government involvement in private enterprises, such as the Pentagon acquiring stakes in oil companies, exemplifies a troubling form of corporatism that could compromise market integrity.
- Dr. Paul draws parallels to historical railroad bailouts during the Civil War, noting that companies that declined government assistance tended to survive, while those that accepted it often faced bankruptcy.
- The current monetary system appears to be evolving into one where the government not only regulates but also owns portions of the market, raising concerns about economic freedom and efficiency.
- Our interpretation: The trend of government intervention, particularly through bond purchases and equity stakes in private companies, may lead to resource misallocation and increased market volatility, affecting asset classes like equities and bonds, while also heightening inflationary pressures that could impact the dollar's value.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The implications of US monetary policy changes can influence the EUR/USD exchange rate.
GBPUSD
The discussion on US monetary policy can also impact the GBP/USD exchange rate.
USDCAD
The discussion on bond buybacks and inflation directly relates to USD movements.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Treasury's bond buyback program and its implications for the dollar.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Treasury's bond buyback program and its implications for the dollar.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Treasury's bond buyback program and its implications for the dollar.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Treasury's bond buyback program and its implications for the dollar.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- The speaker critiques the current administration's overt acknowledgment of an imperial mindset, as evidenced by its aggressive trade control measures, including tariffs and sanctions.
- The guest raises concerns about the lack of transparency regarding gold holdings at Fort Knox, indicating that the reported figures may be unreliable and advocating for public ownership of gold rather than government control.
- The speaker warns that the ongoing financial bubble could represent the largest in history, with potential repercussions for personal liberties and overall economic stability.
- While the U.S. maintains a significant share of international transactions as a reserve currency, the speaker suggests that this dominance is vulnerable to rapid changes, particularly due to China's strategic actions in the gold market.
- Our interpretation: The discussion highlights a potential shift in the dollar's reserve status, driven by increasing skepticism about U.S. financial practices and the transparency of government-held assets, which could impact dollar liquidity and U.S. rate differentials in the global market.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The discussion on the dollar's status as a reserve currency impacts its value against the euro.
GBPUSD
The commentary on the dollar's liquidity and reserve status is relevant for GBPUSD as well.
USDCHF
The block discusses the dollar's reserve status, which directly relates to USD currency pairs.
AUDUSD
The discussion highlights concerns about the dollar's reserve status and government financial practices.
NZDUSD
The discussion highlights concerns about the dollar's reserve status and government financial practices.
USDCAD
The discussion highlights concerns about the dollar's reserve status and government financial practices.
USDJPY
The discussion highlights concerns about the dollar's reserve status and government financial practices.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- Ron Paul expresses concern that some monetary policies in China appear more effective than those implemented by the U.S. government.
- He emphasizes that true patriotism includes the responsibility to criticize government actions when they are misguided.
- Paul observes a positive trend in education, noting that it is becoming less influenced by government control.
- A recent poll reveals that 89% of respondents feel they cannot trust the government due to concerns about fraud.
- Reflecting on his congressional experience, Paul notes a significant shift in awareness regarding the gold standard since he began his political career.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- Brent crude has surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since July, reflecting a 65% increase this year.
- The 30-year mortgage rate has climbed to 6.85%, the highest level in over a year, potentially affecting housing affordability.
- Rising oil prices and mortgage rates are linked to geopolitical conflicts, contributing to inflationary pressures on American households.
- The current economic climate necessitates a liquidation of debt, which could lead to significant turmoil if not managed effectively.
- There is a growing public awareness regarding government spending and foreign conflicts, suggesting a shift in political sentiment.
- Our interpretation: The increase in oil prices and mortgage rates, driven by geopolitical tensions, may intensify inflationary pressures, prompting a reevaluation of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and increasing volatility in the housing market.
INSTRUMENTS
WTICOUSD
The block highlights a significant increase in oil prices, which directly impacts WTI crude oil.
AUDUSD
The block discusses rising oil prices and mortgage rates, which are linked to inflation and monetary policy.
EURUSD
The block discusses rising oil prices and mortgage rates, which are linked to inflation and monetary policy.
GBPUSD
The block discusses rising oil prices and mortgage rates, which are linked to inflation and monetary policy.
NZDUSD
The block discusses rising oil prices and mortgage rates, which are linked to inflation and monetary policy.
USDCAD
The block discusses rising oil prices and mortgage rates, which are linked to inflation and monetary policy.
USDCHF
The block discusses rising oil prices and mortgage rates, which are linked to inflation and monetary policy.
USDJPY
The block discusses rising oil prices and mortgage rates, which are linked to inflation and monetary policy.
BCOUSD
Rising oil prices can also influence the price of other energy commodities like Brent crude.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- Ron Paul discusses a conversation with his grandmother about her fear of inflation, which shaped his understanding of monetary value.
- He highlights the importance of moral character and an honest monetary system in restraining debt and corporatism.
- Paul recalls his grandmother's instinct to retain land as a hedge against inflation, influenced by her experiences in Germany.
- He asserts that it is governments, not individuals, that initiate wars, a lesson imparted by his grandmother during his childhood.
FULL
30:00–35:00
- The speaker identifies the military as the largest welfare recipient in the country, questioning whether defense contracts will be prioritized over social welfare in economic downturns.
- The speaker critiques the concept of 'affordability,' asserting that the core issue lies in the devaluation of currency rather than the mere inability to purchase goods.
- The speaker warns of a potential 'crack up boom,' indicating a risk of systemic financial collapse due to current economic conditions.
- Recent data indicates that 89% of global central bank reserve managers expect to increase their gold holdings, reflecting a potential shift in monetary policy strategies.
- Our interpretation: The looming economic liquidation and the risk of a crack up boom could lead to heightened inflationary pressures, prompting central banks to adjust their monetary policies and increasing demand for gold as a safeguard against currency devaluation.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The mention of increased gold holdings by central banks indicates a direct relevance to gold prices.
AUDUSD
The discussion on the devaluation of currency and its implications for inflation indicates a direct link to USD.
EURUSD
The discussion on the devaluation of currency and its implications for inflation indicates a direct link to USD.
GBPUSD
The discussion on the devaluation of currency and its implications for inflation indicates a direct link to USD.
NZDUSD
The discussion on the devaluation of currency and its implications for inflation indicates a direct link to USD.
USDCAD
The discussion on the devaluation of currency and its implications for inflation indicates a direct link to USD.
USDCHF
The discussion on the devaluation of currency and its implications for inflation indicates a direct link to USD.
USDJPY
The discussion on the devaluation of currency and its implications for inflation indicates a direct link to USD.
FULL
35:00–40:00
- The destruction of currency represents a significant tax burden, suggesting that policy should focus on addressing this issue.
- The guest questions whether borrowing from retirement savings to afford homes genuinely resolves affordability or simply compromises future financial security.
- The speaker critiques government-built housing, likening it to a 'chicken coop' and implying it is an inadequate solution that fails to address the need for reform.
- The current economic situation is described as potentially the largest challenge the world has faced, with an acknowledgment of a difficult dependency on monetary policy.
- The speaker reflects on the tumultuous 1970s when Americans regained the right to own gold after 42 years, noting the subsequent adjustment period was complex and prolonged.
FULL
40:00–45:00
- Ron Paul discusses the implications of restoring the gold standard, suggesting that if the government set the gold price at $7,000, it would likely be consumed too quickly without reforming the underlying monetary system.
- He recalls the pivotal moment on August 15, 1971, when Nixon announced the dollar would no longer be redeemable for gold, which significantly influenced his decision to run for Congress.
- Paul advocates for a greater understanding of natural law and emphasizes the need for honesty in monetary policy, expressing a desire for more people to recognize these principles.
- He shares an experience of attending a lecture by Mises, noting the value of the ideas presented despite the challenges posed by language barriers.
FULL
45:00–50:00
- Dr. Paul expresses a desire for the movement promoting understanding of money and liberty to expand significantly.
- He reflects on the 42 years during which Americans were prohibited from owning gold, noting the recent discussions about legal tender in various states.
- Dr. Paul underscores the critical role of education in understanding money and liberty.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-09-08
OPEN SOURCECHANNELKitco NEWS
Gold Drops Every Time Warsh Speaks, Then Buyers Bring It Back | Brien Lundin
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Gold Drops Every Time Warsh Speaks, Then Buyers Bring It Back | Brien Lundin
Brien Lundin explains that while high gold prices can improve profit margins and make previously uneconomic mining projects viable, they do not fix the underlying quality of the deposits.
FULL
00:00–05:00
- Brien Lundin explains that while high gold prices can improve profit margins and make previously uneconomic mining projects viable, they do not fix the underlying quality of the deposits.
- The current bull market in gold is unique, with characteristics that differ from previous cycles, particularly in how optionality plays are now becoming economic.
- Major gold producers are currently net debt-free and building cash reserves, which may lead them to invest in larger projects as the next phase of the bull market.
- The first 18 months of the bull market saw only gold prices rising, while silver and mining stocks lagged, indicating a need for broader market participation to properly value these assets.
- Analysts from major investment banks are becoming increasingly bullish on gold, suggesting a shift in market sentiment that could attract more generalist investors.
- Our interpretation: The current dynamics in the gold market suggest that while high prices may attract investment, the underlying quality of mining projects remains critical, and without broader market participation, valuations may not fully reflect potential.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The block discusses gold prices directly, indicating a strong relevance to XAU/USD.
XCUUSD
The mention of copper prices suggests a connection to XCU/USD.
AUDUSD
The discussion on gold prices and Federal Reserve comments suggests a connection to USD.
EURUSD
The discussion on gold prices and Federal Reserve comments suggests a connection to USD.
GBPUSD
The discussion on gold prices and Federal Reserve comments suggests a connection to USD.
NZDUSD
The discussion on gold prices and Federal Reserve comments suggests a connection to USD.
USDCAD
The discussion on gold prices and Federal Reserve comments suggests a connection to USD.
USDCHF
The discussion on gold prices and Federal Reserve comments suggests a connection to USD.
USDJPY
The discussion on gold prices and Federal Reserve comments suggests a connection to USD.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- At $4,400 gold, major producers are able to maximize output without negatively affecting prices due to thick profit margins.
- Production costs are anticipated to rise alongside output increases, yet profit margins are expected to remain at historically high levels.
- China's central bank has been actively purchasing gold, acquiring approximately 650,000 ounces in August, the largest monthly total in nearly three years.
- While China has been a price-sensitive buyer historically, their recent gold purchases indicate a strategy of dollar-cost averaging to build reserves.
- The dynamics of gold buying have shifted, with Western investors causing short-term price volatility, while central bank purchases provide underlying market support.
- Our interpretation: The consistent buying by central banks, especially from China, signals a strategic move towards gold as a stable reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, potentially increasing demand pressure on gold prices. Rising production costs and possible supply constraints may further enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency risks.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The block highlights significant gold purchases by China, impacting gold prices directly.
AUDUSD
The block discusses gold as a stable reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, which can influence USD demand.
EURUSD
The block discusses gold as a stable reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, which can influence USD demand.
GBPUSD
The block discusses gold as a stable reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, which can influence USD demand.
NZDUSD
The block discusses gold as a stable reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, which can influence USD demand.
USDCAD
The block discusses gold as a stable reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, which can influence USD demand.
USDCHF
The block discusses gold as a stable reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, which can influence USD demand.
USDJPY
The block discusses gold as a stable reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainties, which can influence USD demand.
XCUUSD
The discussion of copper prices indicates a broader commodities market impact.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- The current bullish environment for base metals, particularly copper, suggests that investors may find profitable opportunities across the commodity sector.
- Copper's essential applications and long lead times for new supply, which can take 15 to 20 years, make it a compelling investment.
- Many previously uneconomic copper deposits are now viable due to rising prices, but development will still face significant permitting and logistical challenges.
- While operating margins can absorb challenges like difficult metallurgy and high strip ratios, the overall viability of mining projects remains contingent on individual circumstances.
- Our interpretation: The strong demand for copper, driven by sectors such as AI and infrastructure, indicates a potential supply-demand imbalance that could sustain price increases and influence inflation expectations.
INSTRUMENTS
XCUUSD
The block discusses the strong demand for copper and its investment viability.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- At gold prices between $4,000 and $5,000 an ounce, many mining projects become economically viable, allowing for the recovery of costs and management mistakes.
- High gold prices can help overcome many production-related issues, but permitting challenges remain insurmountable regardless of price.
- Management mistakes can still be detrimental, leading to significant operating margin losses, even in a high-price environment.
- The current market allows explorers to acquire mining expertise, enabling them to bring projects into production despite potential initial mistakes.
- Excessive share dilution can erode shareholder value, making it crucial for investors to monitor the share structure of junior mining companies.
- Our interpretation: The resurgence of previously uneconomic mining projects due to high gold prices may mask underlying risks, particularly related to management and share dilution, which could impact long-term investment viability.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The block discusses gold prices directly, which is central to the analysis.
XCUUSD
The mention of copper prices indicates a broader commodities discussion.
AUDUSD
The discussion on gold prices and their economic implications suggests a connection to USD through commodity pricing.
EURUSD
The discussion on gold prices and their economic implications suggests a connection to USD through commodity pricing.
GBPUSD
The discussion on gold prices and their economic implications suggests a connection to USD through commodity pricing.
NZDUSD
The discussion on gold prices and their economic implications suggests a connection to USD through commodity pricing.
USDCAD
The discussion on gold prices and their economic implications suggests a connection to USD through commodity pricing.
USDCHF
The discussion on gold prices and their economic implications suggests a connection to USD through commodity pricing.
USDJPY
The discussion on gold prices and their economic implications suggests a connection to USD through commodity pricing.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- The imposition of unprecedented sanctions on Russia has prompted countries to increase their gold reserves as a hedge against potential dollar weaponization.
- Investors had an 18-month window to acquire silver and mining stocks before the market experienced significant movement.
- Junior mining management teams have adapted to market conditions by raising funds when opportunities arise, even if it means accepting lower valuations.
- Many exploration companies are now able to drill viable projects that were previously on hold due to funding constraints, allowing them to follow up on past discoveries.
- Good drill results are currently met with positive market reactions, contrasting with earlier periods where they often led to selling pressure.
- Our interpretation: The recent surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, has created a favorable environment for mining equities, particularly in the exploration sector, suggesting potential upside for junior mining stocks as they demonstrate value through successful drilling results while also highlighting the risk of speculative pressures.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The block discusses the surge in gold prices due to geopolitical tensions.
XAGUSD
The block mentions silver as an investment opportunity alongside gold.
XCUUSD
The discussion includes copper prices and their potential future movements.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold, which is often priced in USD.
EURUSD
The block discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold, which is often priced in USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold, which is often priced in USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold, which is often priced in USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold, which is often priced in USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold, which is often priced in USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on gold, which is often priced in USD.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- The Gold Council indicates that royalties, which represent the government's share of each ounce produced, have surged by 85% year on year, surpassing the 70% increase in gold prices.
- Since 2021, royalties have doubled as a percentage of production costs, rising from 6% to 12%.
- In favorable market conditions, governments tend to renegotiate agreements to capture a larger share of miners' profits, which they often view as excessive gains.
- The speaker favors investments in North America due to the relative safety of its jurisdictions, while also recognizing that some international projects, such as those in Kazakhstan, can be promising.
- Despite the risks associated with mining in Africa, the speaker notes that there are still viable projects worth considering on a case-by-case basis.
FULL
30:00–35:00
- Today's record copper prices may be perceived as discounts in the near future, highlighting the importance of understanding current market dynamics.
- Geopolitical factors often drive commodity price increases, but prices typically revert to previous trends once temporary issues, such as tariffs, are resolved.
- Government interest in securing supplies of critical minerals is rising, potentially leading to substantial financial support for projects that might not be economically viable otherwise.
- The national average for diesel prices has reached a record high, which could significantly impact mining operations that rely heavily on diesel fuel.
- High diesel prices could compress mining margins, as seen in previous cycles where rising oil prices limited miners' leverage to gold prices.
- Our interpretation: The interplay between rising operational costs and fluctuating commodity prices may create a challenging environment for miners, necessitating careful evaluation of project viability and investment strategies.
INSTRUMENTS
XCUUSD
The block discusses the current and future pricing dynamics of copper.
FULL
35:00–40:00
- Despite rising capital expenditures (capex) and operational expenditures (op-ex) due to increased diesel prices, gold prices are significantly outpacing these costs, resulting in expanding margins.
- Gold prices could potentially rise even if mining shares decline, as inflation affecting metal prices may negatively impact the profitability of mining companies.
- Current margins in gold mining are considerably larger than those observed during the 2008 to 2011 period, despite the rise in diesel prices.
- Major gold producers now have the potential to offer returns similar to junior exploration companies, with estimates suggesting three to five times potential upside if valued appropriately.
- The speaker acknowledges personal investment mistakes, noting a tendency to hold onto investments longer than advisable due to emotional attachment to company narratives.
- Our interpretation: The current dynamics suggest that while gold prices are high, the risks associated with operational costs and market sentiment could lead to a reevaluation of mining investments, particularly for junior miners.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The block discusses gold prices directly, indicating a strong relevance to XAU/USD.
AUDUSD
The discussion on gold prices and inflation suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
EURUSD
The discussion on gold prices and inflation suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
GBPUSD
The discussion on gold prices and inflation suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
NZDUSD
The discussion on gold prices and inflation suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDCAD
The discussion on gold prices and inflation suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDCHF
The discussion on gold prices and inflation suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
USDJPY
The discussion on gold prices and inflation suggests a connection to USD dynamics.
FULL
40:00–45:00
- A significant market correction was anticipated even without the influence of the Iran war, suggesting an overheated market environment.
- Investors were advised to take profits during the market peak, particularly when silver prices reached $118.
- The upcoming conference in New Orleans will feature diverse perspectives from thought leaders on critical topics, including the bond market and Federal Reserve policies.
- The market is currently mispricing Federal Reserve policy, particularly regarding the likelihood of multiple rate hikes by Kevin Warsh, which may not be sustainable given existing debt levels.
- The cost of servicing national debt is already surpassing expenditures on national defense, indicating a precarious fiscal situation.
- Our interpretation: The mispricing of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations could lead to significant volatility in gold and other commodities, as rising debt servicing costs may restrict the Fed's capacity for aggressive monetary tightening, impacting investor sentiment and asset valuations.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The block discusses gold prices and their volatility in relation to Federal Reserve policy.
AUDUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and rate hike expectations.
EURUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and rate hike expectations.
GBPUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and rate hike expectations.
NZDUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and rate hike expectations.
USDCAD
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and rate hike expectations.
USDCHF
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and rate hike expectations.
USDJPY
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and rate hike expectations.
FULL
45:00–50:00
- Gold prices typically decline when Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh makes hawkish statements, as markets react to potential rate hikes.
- Despite initial drops, smart money, including some from China, quickly re-enters the market, driving gold prices back up.
- The long-term uptrend in gold prices remains intact, indicating significant opportunities in the current market.
- Gold prices are projected to exceed $5,000 by year-end, suggesting a strong upward trend without the need for a speculative rally.
- Investors are advised to buy on dips and sell during excessive rallies to optimize returns in the current market environment.
- Our interpretation: The fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by Federal Reserve commentary, reflect a complex interaction between monetary policy expectations and market sentiment, with resilient demand from smart money indicating potential upward pressure on gold and mining stocks.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold prices are directly discussed in relation to market reactions to Fed statements.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements, which directly relate to USD.
EURUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements, which directly relate to USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements, which directly relate to USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements, which directly relate to USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements, which directly relate to USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements, which directly relate to USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements, which directly relate to USD.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-09-07
OPEN SOURCECHANNELKitco NEWS
50 Years in Gold, but Never Seen This Many Scams | Jeffrey Christian #Gold #Investing #Scams #Silver
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50 Years in Gold, but Never Seen This Many Scams | Jeffrey Christian #Gold #Investing #Scams #Silver
There is a significant increase in innovation in the gold and silver markets globally, particularly in India and China.
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00:00–05:00
- There is a significant increase in innovation in the gold and silver markets globally, particularly in India and China.
- India is recognized as the largest private holder of gold and silver, with ongoing market innovations despite government restrictions.
- The rise of the gold market has been accompanied by a notable increase in scams and fraudulent activities, reaching unprecedented levels.
- Many operations in the market are unregulated and deemed untrustworthy, raising concerns about potential scandals when these operations collapse.
- Our interpretation: The current surge in scams and unregulated activities poses a risk to market stability, suggesting that investors may need to reassess their strategies and due diligence in the precious metals sector.
INSTRUMENTS
XAGUSD
The block discusses the silver market alongside gold.
XAUUSD
The discussion centers on the gold market and its innovations.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-09-04
OPEN SOURCECHANNELKitco NEWS
Gold Stopped Following The Rules | This Week In Focus
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Gold Stopped Following The Rules | This Week In Focus
The market currently assigns a 50% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike, while the likelihood of a rate cut stands at zero, indicating a shift towards more tightening by year-end.
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00:00–05:00
- The market currently assigns a 50% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike, while the likelihood of a rate cut stands at zero, indicating a shift towards more tightening by year-end.
- Jim Bullard, former president of the St. Louis Fed, observes that the committee is divided on rate decisions, with the real economy performing well but inflation remaining elevated.
- Gold has increased by over 10% recently, yet it remains approximately 20% below its record high of $5,600 set in January.
- Bullard indicates that foreign central banks are diversifying their holdings away from US Treasuries and into gold, which may reflect a diminishing confidence in the Fed's credibility.
- Phil Streible from Blue Line Futures points out that both gold and silver are encountering resistance levels, with gold fluctuating around its 200-day moving average.
- Our interpretation: The divergence in central bank strategies and the rising interest in gold suggest a potential shift in market dynamics, where gold may serve as a hedge against perceived risks in US monetary policy.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold's price movement is directly discussed in relation to monetary policy.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications.
EURUSD
The Fed's rate decisions can impact the EUR/USD exchange rate indirectly. Also: The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications.
USDCAD
The discussion of US monetary policy can indirectly influence CAD through capital flows. Also: The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their implications.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- The current market conditions indicate a potential for a small pullback, presenting an opportunity for clients to re-enter the market.
- Gold incurs a holding cost when cash yields exceed 3.5%, impacting its price dynamics as higher interest rates increase this cost.
- Raising interest rates may be a policy error, as it fails to address supply-driven inflation stemming from geopolitical tensions and external disruptions.
- Current inflation is primarily supply-driven, influenced by tariffs and oil supply disruptions due to ongoing conflicts, rather than demand-driven factors.
- The economic landscape is shifting towards stagflation, characterized by rising inflation and declining growth, which historically favors gold as an asset class.
- Our interpretation: The interplay between rising inflation from supply shocks and potential Fed rate hikes suggests a complex environment for gold, while the narrowing yield curve indicates a slowing growth outlook that may pressure the dollar and influence monetary policy decisions.
INSTRUMENTS
EURUSD
The block discusses Fed rate expectations which directly impact USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses Fed rate expectations which directly impact USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses Fed rate expectations which directly impact USD.
AUDUSD
The block discusses potential Fed rate hikes and their implications.
GBPUSD
The block discusses potential Fed rate hikes and their implications.
NZDUSD
The block discusses potential Fed rate hikes and their implications.
USDCAD
The block discusses potential Fed rate hikes and their implications.
XAUUSD
The block discusses gold's price dynamics in relation to interest rates.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- The labor market is currently in equilibrium, with net unemployment rates close to the natural rate, indicating overall health.
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated support for holding rates if inflation continues to ease, suggesting a shift in rate expectations.
- Concerns were raised about the long end of the bond market pricing in the US's overall fiscal position, with projections of public debt reaching 120% to 150% of the economy.
- Politicians generally advocate for lower nominal interest rates, complicating the Fed's decision-making process.
- Silver faces a structural supply issue, as 70% of its production is a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, limiting its responsiveness to price increases.
- While gold ETF flows have turned positive this year, silver ETF flows remain down 7%, reflecting differing investor sentiment between the two metals.
- Our interpretation: The divergence in ETF flows between gold and silver, alongside structural supply constraints in silver, suggests a potential shift in investment strategies favoring gold amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
INSTRUMENTS
USDCAD
The discussion on US monetary policy and inflation can influence USD/CAD dynamics.
EURUSD
The Fed's stance on rates can influence the EUR/USD exchange rate.
AUDUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve rate expectations and inflation, which directly impacts the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve rate expectations and inflation, which directly impacts the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve rate expectations and inflation, which directly impacts the USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses Federal Reserve rate expectations and inflation, which directly impacts the USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses Federal Reserve rate expectations and inflation, which directly impacts the USD.
XAUUSD
The positive ETF flows for gold suggest increased demand amid economic uncertainties.
XAGUSD
The structural supply issues in silver may impact its market dynamics.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- John Feneck emphasizes that tungsten is an essential metal for defense applications, including tanks and Tomahawk missiles, and currently faces a supply deficit of 18 to 24 months.
- There is no futures market or ETF tracker for tungsten, necessitating investment in tungsten equities for exposure to this metal.
- The U.S. is experiencing a disconnect regarding the need for critical minerals, as permitting for new mines and refineries is lacking, complicating the supply chain.
- Gold prices can rise independently of mining shares, suggesting potential operational issues or hedging strategies affecting specific mining companies.
- John Feneck critiques Barrick Gold's performance compared to competitors, while highlighting Newmont and Agnico as more reliable investments in the gold mining sector.
- Our interpretation: The lack of a futures market for tungsten and the ongoing supply deficit may drive investors to seek direct equity exposure, while the disconnect in critical mineral permitting could exacerbate supply challenges, impacting overall market dynamics.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold prices are directly discussed in relation to market dynamics.
AUDUSD
The discussion on gold prices and Fed rate expectations indicates a connection to USD.
EURUSD
The discussion on gold prices and Fed rate expectations indicates a connection to USD.
GBPUSD
The discussion on gold prices and Fed rate expectations indicates a connection to USD.
NZDUSD
The discussion on gold prices and Fed rate expectations indicates a connection to USD.
USDCAD
The discussion on gold prices and Fed rate expectations indicates a connection to USD.
USDCHF
The discussion on gold prices and Fed rate expectations indicates a connection to USD.
USDJPY
The discussion on gold prices and Fed rate expectations indicates a connection to USD.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- The speaker stresses the need for investors to define a core position and a tradable position, recommending a maximum and minimum amount to maintain investment discipline.
- The fund manager cautions against relying on margin for investments, emphasizing the importance of consulting financial advisors to safeguard retirement savings.
- The speaker advocates for a diversified investment strategy that includes ETFs, mining stocks, futures, and physical assets, as each serves a distinct purpose.
- During significant market events, such as the Ukraine conflict, much of the price action in metals occurred at night when traditional markets were closed, highlighting potential liquidity challenges.
- The speaker predicts a sector rotation from technology and AI towards value stocks by March, indicating a potential shift in investor focus towards companies like Newmont and Barrick.
- Our interpretation: The expected shift from tech to value stocks, combined with rising demand for capital goods driven by AI infrastructure, may strain capital allocation, impacting funding for mining operations and influencing commodity prices.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The discussion on gold prices and investor sentiment directly relates to XAU/USD.
XCUUSD
The mention of capital goods and infrastructure investment suggests a potential impact on copper demand.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Fed's rate expectations, which directly impacts the USD.
EURUSD
The block discusses the Fed's rate expectations, which directly impacts the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Fed's rate expectations, which directly impacts the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Fed's rate expectations, which directly impacts the USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Fed's rate expectations, which directly impacts the USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Fed's rate expectations, which directly impacts the USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Fed's rate expectations, which directly impacts the USD.
BCOUSD
The block discusses inflation and capital goods, which can influence broader commodity prices.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- The United States holds approximately 261 million ounces of gold, recorded at a statutory price of around $42.22 per ounce, a figure that only Congress can amend.
- A former Federal Reserve Bank president indicated that adjusting the gold valuation to market prices would more accurately reflect its true worth, as the current book value does not align with market realities.
- Gold prices fluctuated between $4,280 and just under $4,500 during the week, while silver remained stable in the mid-60s and platinum ranged from $1,320 to $1,460.
- Historically, September has been a weaker month for gold, contrasting with August, which has seen gold prices rise in 13 out of the last 15 years.
- Upcoming economic data, including employment reports and consumer price indices, is anticipated to significantly influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
- Our interpretation: The potential for a shift in Federal Reserve policy, influenced by upcoming economic data, could create volatility in gold and other precious metal prices, as market participants adjust their expectations.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The block discusses gold prices and their fluctuations in relation to monetary policy.
AUDUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and economic data that influence the USD.
EURUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and economic data that influence the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and economic data that influence the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and economic data that influence the USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and economic data that influence the USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and economic data that influence the USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses Federal Reserve policy and economic data that influence the USD.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-09-03
OPEN SOURCECHANNELKitco NEWS
'Scarcity Season' Has Begun: Ran Neuner Is Long Gold, Silver And Bitcoin
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'Scarcity Season' Has Begun: Ran Neuner Is Long Gold, Silver And Bitcoin
From March 2022 to October 2023, five-year real yields in the U.S. increased by over 4%, yet gold only rose by 7%, defying expectations of a 55% decline based on historical correlations.
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00:00–05:00
- From March 2022 to October 2023, five-year real yields in the U.S. increased by over 4%, yet gold only rose by 7%, defying expectations of a 55% decline based on historical correlations.
- Gold's historical relationship with real rates has shifted; it now shows minimal reaction to rising real rates but experiences significant gains when they decline.
- The U.S. national debt has exceeded $40 trillion, with annual debt repayments projected to surpass $1.5 trillion, financed at an average rate of approximately 3.5%.
- The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stands at 4.75%, which is anticipated to substantially raise U.S.
- The U.S. is effectively increasing its money supply, contributing to the debasement of the dollar and creating a favorable environment for scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
- During the same period, Bitcoin appreciated nearly 25% while gold saw a 10% increase, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics favoring cryptocurrencies.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- Bond vigilantes are traders who oppose a country's fiscal policy and can influence it by buying or short selling bonds.
- Scott Besson is actively engaging with the bond market, proposing to print money and repurchase long-term debt to enhance money circulation.
- Inflation is anticipated to rise as more money enters circulation, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with oil prices around $99 per barrel.
- Bitcoin has recently exited a prolonged bear market and is currently about 40% below its all-time highs, indicating a potential recovery in its value.
- Bitcoin's price movements are somewhat correlated with gold, suggesting it may serve as a higher beta asset in response to changes in monetary policy.
- Our interpretation: The current economic environment, characterized by increased money supply and geopolitical tensions, may drive investors towards scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin, potentially leading to significant price movements.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold is highlighted as a scarce asset in the context of inflation and geopolitical tensions.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned as a lagging asset that may follow gold's price movements.
BCOUSD
The discussion on oil prices and inflation suggests a connection to broader commodity markets.
AUDUSD
The discussion on inflation and money circulation directly relates to USD dynamics.
EURUSD
The discussion on inflation and money circulation directly relates to USD dynamics.
GBPUSD
The discussion on inflation and money circulation directly relates to USD dynamics.
NZDUSD
The discussion on inflation and money circulation directly relates to USD dynamics.
USDCAD
The discussion on inflation and money circulation directly relates to USD dynamics.
USDCHF
The discussion on inflation and money circulation directly relates to USD dynamics.
USDJPY
The discussion on inflation and money circulation directly relates to USD dynamics.
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is discussed as a potential recovery asset in the context of inflation and monetary policy.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- The current market environment does not necessitate a significant event for change; it revolves around authorities combating market pressures.
- Scott Best, with a strong background under notable financial figures, is focused on reducing the long end of the yield curve but lacks effective tools beyond verbal commitments.
- Increasing money circulation through treasury buybacks is expected to lead to inflation, enhancing the value of scarce assets.
- The speaker is significantly invested in gold, silver, platinum, and Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin is poised for a bull market following a prolonged bear phase.
- Bitcoin's price movements are characterized by sharp and rapid changes, suggesting that missing market opportunities could result in substantial losses.
- The 200-week moving average serves as a crucial indicator for Bitcoin, with historical data showing that purchasing near this level typically offers a favorable risk-return profile.
- Our interpretation: The combination of increased money supply and the focus on scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin may lead to significant price movements as investors seek to hedge against inflation.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is explicitly mentioned as a key investment in the context of inflation and scarcity.
XAUUSD
Gold is highlighted as a significant investment in the context of inflation and scarcity.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned as a lagging asset that could benefit from the same inflationary pressures.
AUDUSD
The block discusses inflation and monetary policy, which are closely tied to the USD.
EURUSD
The block discusses inflation and monetary policy, which are closely tied to the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses inflation and monetary policy, which are closely tied to the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses inflation and monetary policy, which are closely tied to the USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses inflation and monetary policy, which are closely tied to the USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses inflation and monetary policy, which are closely tied to the USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses inflation and monetary policy, which are closely tied to the USD.
XPDUSD
Platinum is mentioned as part of the speaker's investment strategy.
XPTUSD
Palladium is included in the speaker's investment strategy.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- Raising interest rates in response to high oil prices is ineffective for addressing inflation, which is primarily driven by supply shocks rather than an overheating economy.
- The market may not be accurately pricing the potential disconnect between Scott Besson and Kevin Warsh, who have historical ties and differing approaches to interest rate management.
- The annualized PCE inflation rate is currently at 2.9%, indicating a slight decline that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
- Liquidity in the market is expected to stem from the Treasury's actions of printing money and buying back its own bonds, rather than from interest rate cuts.
- Historical patterns show that every time the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, there has been intervention to bring it back down, suggesting a consistent market manipulation strategy.
- Our interpretation: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran, combined with high oil prices, are likely to sustain inflationary pressures, which may lead to a disconnect in market expectations and increased volatility in asset classes such as equities and commodities.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The discussion on inflation and geopolitical tensions directly impacts gold as a safe-haven asset.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned as lagging behind gold, indicating potential future price movements.
AUDUSD
The block discusses inflation and interest rates, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
EURUSD
The block discusses inflation and interest rates, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
GBPUSD
The block discusses inflation and interest rates, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
NZDUSD
The block discusses inflation and interest rates, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
USDCAD
The block discusses inflation and interest rates, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
USDCHF
The block discusses inflation and interest rates, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
USDJPY
The block discusses inflation and interest rates, which are closely tied to USD dynamics.
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is mentioned in the context of scarcity and inflation, linking it to the broader economic environment.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- Bitcoin has historically not traded below its electricity cost of production, currently estimated between $50,000 and $58,000.
- Short-term Bitcoin holders are now in profit for the first time in a long time, with their average entry price around $75,000.
- The speaker expresses strong confidence in Bitcoin's upward trajectory, suggesting that a 50% increase could elevate its price to between $200,000 and $220,000.
- Bitcoin's significant returns are concentrated in a small percentage of trading days, highlighting the necessity of market participation during these volatile periods.
- The speaker has been strategically accumulating Bitcoin since it was priced at $60,000, indicating a consistent buying approach across various price levels.
- Our interpretation: The current dynamics suggest that Bitcoin's price resilience is tied to its production cost and the profitability of short-term holders, which could influence market behavior and price movements in response to broader economic conditions.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is directly discussed with specific price levels and market dynamics.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- The speaker employs the crypto-fear and greed index as a trading strategy, buying during extreme fear and selling during extreme greed.
- MicroStrategy's stock has experienced significant leverage to Bitcoin, declining 75% since October, while Bitcoin itself has dropped about 50%.
- The speaker emphasizes that time in the market is more effective than timing the market, particularly given Bitcoin's volatility.
- He reflects on past mistakes, revealing a loss of over $100 million during the Terra Collapse in 2022 due to an oversized position in one asset class.
- Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin's price resilience is closely linked to its production cost and the profitability of short-term holders, which may influence future price movements.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is directly discussed in relation to its price resilience and production cost.
ETHUSD
Ethereum is a major cryptocurrency that may be influenced by Bitcoin's market dynamics.
FULL
30:00–35:00
- The guest maintains a portfolio rule limiting any single asset class to 5-7% of his holdings, with Bitcoin being an exception at a slightly higher percentage.
- He highlights the value of critics in identifying technological weaknesses, which helps prevent being trapped in an echo chamber of like-minded opinions.
- Currently, 15-20% of his overall wealth is allocated to precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.
- He likens silver to a scorpion, indicating that it remains inactive until a significant market trigger occurs, suggesting it typically lags behind gold before experiencing rapid price increases.
- The guest believes we are in a 'scarcity season' and advises against selling gold unless there is a fundamental market shift that warrants such action.
- Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest that gold and silver prices may be influenced by the ongoing scarcity narrative, with potential implications for investor behavior and asset allocation strategies, particularly in relation to the broader economic environment and interest rate expectations.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is explicitly mentioned as a key asset in the guest's portfolio.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned as part of the guest's portfolio and its market behavior is analyzed.
XAUUSD
Gold is discussed as a primary asset in the context of scarcity and market dynamics.
FULL
35:00–40:00
- The speaker maintains a bullish outlook on gold, copper, silver, and Bitcoin, viewing them as asymmetric opportunities in the current market.
- He notes that Bitcoin has been perceived negatively over the past year, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment may favor it soon.
- The speaker cautions against high leverage in trading, particularly in cryptocurrencies, where a 20% decline in Bitcoin could lead to substantial portfolio liquidations if over-leveraged.
- He categorizes gold as a non-volatile asset, indicating that leveraging it involves different risks compared to cryptocurrencies, which can experience rapid price changes.
- The speaker advises older individuals, particularly those unfamiliar with cryptocurrency, to consider allocating 5% to 10% of their portfolio to Bitcoin, and possibly to Ethereum and Solana.
- Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest that a shift in sentiment towards Bitcoin and precious metals may occur as investors reassess their portfolios in light of perceived scarcity and volatility.
INSTRUMENTS
BTCUSD
Bitcoin is explicitly mentioned as a long position.
XAGUSD
Silver is explicitly mentioned as a long position.
XAUUSD
Gold is explicitly mentioned as a long position.
XCUUSD
Copper is explicitly mentioned as a long position.
FULL
40:00–45:00
- AI agents will require a trustless payment method to transact with each other.
- Cryptocurrency is identified as the only viable option for AI agents to settle transactions.
- A significant market shift is anticipated as billions of AI agents will transact at an unprecedented pace.
- The US government has acknowledged this need, leading to the passage of the Genius Act to establish the US dollar as the primary online digital currency.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-09-02
OPEN SOURCECHANNELKitco NEWS
No ETF, No Futures Market: Why 17% Of His Money Is In This Metal
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No ETF, No Futures Market: Why 17% Of His Money Is In This Metal
Newmont achieved a record $2.2 billion in free cash flow last quarter, significantly outperforming Barrick, which generated $515 million, with only $141 million benefiting its shareholders.
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00:00–05:00
- Newmont achieved a record $2.2 billion in free cash flow last quarter, significantly outperforming Barrick, which generated $515 million, with only $141 million benefiting its shareholders.
- John Feneck of Feneck Consulting Group actively purchased mining equities weekly throughout July and August, decreasing his cash allocation from 12-14% to 8-10%.
- Feneck maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that gold could retest the $3,900 level, despite the recent volatility in the market.
- He strategically sold silver above $100, planning to repurchase it at $50, reflecting a calculated trading approach in precious metals.
- Feneck's criteria for selecting junior mining stocks include specific guidelines for sizing positions, particularly when facing a 40% decline.
- Currently, only 0.1% of global investable capital is allocated to the mining sector, indicating substantial potential for growth as investors seek safer asset classes.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- The performance gap between Newmont and Barrick is attributed to Barrick's poorer execution, as shown by their capital expenditures and free cash flow generation.
- Newmont generated $2.2 billion in free cash flow, while Barrick only generated $515 million, with just $141 million benefiting its shareholders.
- John Feneck reported being a net buyer of mining equities weekly through July and August, reducing his cash position from 12-14% to 8-10%.
- The HUI index experienced a decline of approximately 40% from March 1st to August 1st, reflecting significant volatility in the mining sector during that timeframe.
- Our interpretation: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, may lead to increased volatility in the mining sector, influencing investor sentiment and potentially driving a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The mention of gold as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical tensions directly relates to the XAU/USD pair.
AUDUSD
The discussion of geopolitical tensions and their impact on the mining sector suggests a potential influence on the USD.
EURUSD
The discussion of geopolitical tensions and their impact on the mining sector suggests a potential influence on the USD.
GBPUSD
The discussion of geopolitical tensions and their impact on the mining sector suggests a potential influence on the USD.
NZDUSD
The discussion of geopolitical tensions and their impact on the mining sector suggests a potential influence on the USD.
USDCAD
The discussion of geopolitical tensions and their impact on the mining sector suggests a potential influence on the USD.
USDCHF
The discussion of geopolitical tensions and their impact on the mining sector suggests a potential influence on the USD.
USDJPY
The discussion of geopolitical tensions and their impact on the mining sector suggests a potential influence on the USD.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- The current US labor market is weak, which may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to raise interest rates as anticipated.
- Junior mining stocks are increasing at a rate three times faster than gold, indicating strong bullish sentiment in this sector.
- Management quality is crucial in junior mining companies; if an investor is misled by a CEO, they should avoid future investments with that individual.
- The share structure and jurisdiction of a junior mining company are essential factors to evaluate when considering potential investments.
- Our interpretation: The weakness in the US labor market, combined with the Fed's potential limitations on rate hikes, could lead to heightened volatility in equities, particularly within the junior mining sector, as investors reassess risk and growth expectations based on economic indicators.
INSTRUMENTS
AUDUSD
The block discusses the US labor market and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
EURUSD
The block discusses the US labor market and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the US labor market and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the US labor market and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
USDCAD
The block discusses the US labor market and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
USDCHF
The block discusses the US labor market and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
USDJPY
The block discusses the US labor market and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- The speaker highlights the significance of understanding share structures in mining investments, particularly the presence of substantial institutional ownership to mitigate unexpected market fluctuations.
- Geopolitical factors are enhancing the attractiveness of investment in regions like Peru and Colombia, especially following recent conservative political changes.
- Investors are cautioned against engaging in speculative investments if they cannot afford potential losses, underscoring the necessity of financial prudence.
- Gold prices exceeding $4,000 are drawing interest from generalist investors and hedge funds, suggesting that strong performance in the gold market can stimulate investment interest.
- Our interpretation: The rising interest in gold and the geopolitical shifts in South America may lead to increased volatility and opportunities in the mining sector as investors reassess risk and potential returns.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
The block discusses rising gold prices, which directly relates to XAU/USD.
XAGUSD
The mention of silver prices indicates potential interest in XAG/USD as well.
AUDUSD
The discussion on gold prices suggests a connection to USD as a safe-haven currency.
EURUSD
The discussion on gold prices suggests a connection to USD as a safe-haven currency.
GBPUSD
The discussion on gold prices suggests a connection to USD as a safe-haven currency.
NZDUSD
The discussion on gold prices suggests a connection to USD as a safe-haven currency.
USDCAD
The discussion on gold prices suggests a connection to USD as a safe-haven currency.
USDCHF
The discussion on gold prices suggests a connection to USD as a safe-haven currency.
USDJPY
The discussion on gold prices suggests a connection to USD as a safe-haven currency.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- The speaker underscores the necessity of conviction in core holdings, identifying GDX and GDXJ as central to their portfolio strategy, which they refer to as the hub.
- When facing a 30% to 40% decline in a junior mining stock, investors should evaluate if the drop is attributable to external factors rather than the company's underlying fundamentals.
- Stillwater's stock price increased from 29 cents to 37 cents following the release of a favorable mineral reserve estimate, highlighting its valuable mineral reserves.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of maintaining relationships with company management to better understand the potential for future developments and to mitigate risks associated with stock volatility.
- The discussion includes the need for investors to differentiate between core and tradable positions, suggesting that those with strong conviction in a core holding should consider holding through market fluctuations.
- Our interpretation: The emphasis on maintaining core positions and understanding company fundamentals suggests that market participants may need to reassess their strategies in light of external pressures, particularly in the context of fluctuating commodity prices and potential impacts on mining equities.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- The speaker reflects on their worst mining stock, Allied (symbol ANV), stating they would avoid any investment associated with that CEO or IR person in the future.
- Guardian Metal (symbol GMT-O-F) has uplisted to GMT-L on the New York Stock Exchange, signaling increased institutional interest.
- Kaz Resources (symbol K-A-Z-R) is noted as a development story, with cash costs for tungsten ranging from $100 to $150 per ton, while tungsten is currently trading over $2800 per ton.
- Kaz Resources is fully funded by USX and Bank, with $1.6 billion secured against an expected CAPEX of $1.1 billion.
- Western Star (symbols WSR-IF in the U.S. and WSR in Canada) is introduced as an explorer, reporting high-grade tungsten results exceeding 4% in their Nevada project.
FULL
30:00–35:00
- The speaker sold silver between $120 and $121, reducing their position by about 20%, and plans to repurchase if the price drops to $50 or $55.
- Silver was added to the critical minerals list last year, highlighting a shortage due to its increasing industrial applications.
- Many silver mining operations produce silver as a by-product, with companies like First Majestic generating only 20 to 30% silver.
- The speaker discussed meetings with the US government about tungsten, noting a disconnect between the demand for critical minerals and the slow permitting process in the US.
- There is currently a 1.5 to 2-year deficit in tungsten supply, despite its price rising from $920 to $2,800, attributed to the absence of ETFs and futures markets for tungsten.
- Our interpretation: The significant allocation of over 17% of the speaker's portfolio to tungsten equities reflects a strategic response to supply constraints and the lack of investment vehicles in the tungsten market.
INSTRUMENTS
XAGUSD
The block discusses silver trading and its market dynamics.
XCUUSD
Tungsten's supply issues may indirectly affect other metals like copper.
FULL
35:00–40:00
- The guest emphasized that the US faces a refining problem, noting that while some refineries exist, significant capital is required for building and permitting new ones.
- Tungsten is highlighted as an irreplaceable metal used in military applications, including tanks and Tomahawk missiles.
- Japan has encountered supply issues with critical minerals, particularly tungsten, due to its reliance on China, raising concerns about material availability for major companies like Samsung.
- The guest anticipates that the US will begin constructing its own refineries and smelters in the coming years to enhance the domestic supply chain for critical minerals.
- The speaker cautioned that the current market rally, especially in tech and AI, may be nearing its end, predicting a sector rotation towards value stocks as interest shifts away from momentum-driven investments.
- Our interpretation: The ongoing reliance on foreign sources for critical minerals like tungsten, combined with the US's intent to develop domestic refining capabilities, suggests a potential shift in market dynamics that could lead to increased investment in mining equities and critical mineral stocks.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold is mentioned as a potential investment and is relevant to the discussion on mining equities.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned in the context of selling above $100, indicating its relevance to the commodities market.
XCUUSD
Copper is indirectly referenced through discussions of critical minerals and supply chain issues.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-08-31
OPEN SOURCECHANNELKitco NEWS
Gold Has Rallied Into October in 13 of the Last 15 Years | Phil Streible
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Gold Has Rallied Into October in 13 of the Last 15 Years | Phil Streible
Phil Streible notes that gold fell more than 3% following the Fed Chairman's speech, reflecting market sensitivity to potential rate hikes.
FULL
00:00–05:00
- Phil Streible notes that gold fell more than 3% following the Fed Chairman's speech, reflecting market sensitivity to potential rate hikes.
- Streible points out that gold is currently approximately 20% below its all-time high, which was established prior to the war in February.
- He observes that the market has adapted to the fact that Middle East headlines have less influence on gold prices.
- Streible warns that a September rate hike would be a policy mistake by the Fed, necessitating a reversal in the near future.
- Many clients are currently positioned long in both gold and silver, while some are utilizing futures contracts for downside protection.
- Streible emphasizes the significance of resistance levels, noting that silver has struggled to maintain a close above its 100-day moving average.
- Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest that if the Fed proceeds with rate hikes, it could lead to a reassessment of gold and silver positions, particularly as inflationary pressures persist.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold's price movement is directly analyzed in relation to Fed policy.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned in the context of market positioning and resistance levels.
AUDUSD
The Fed's potential rate hike is directly discussed, impacting USD expectations.
EURUSD
The Fed's potential rate hike is directly discussed, impacting USD expectations.
GBPUSD
The Fed's potential rate hike is directly discussed, impacting USD expectations.
NZDUSD
The Fed's potential rate hike is directly discussed, impacting USD expectations.
USDCAD
The Fed's potential rate hike is directly discussed, impacting USD expectations.
USDCHF
The Fed's potential rate hike is directly discussed, impacting USD expectations.
USDJPY
The Fed's potential rate hike is directly discussed, impacting USD expectations.
FULL
05:00–10:00
- Phil Streible indicates that gold and silver are diverging from traditional inflationary pressures linked to higher energy prices.
- He notes that the market is adjusting to the reintroduction of interest rate hikes, which impacts various asset classes differently.
- Streible highlights that small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, are more adversely affected by rising borrowing costs compared to larger tech stocks in the Nasdaq.
- He asserts that gold has largely absorbed its recent sell-off, characterizing a $150 decline as a correction following a $600 increase, with 4378 identified as a key support level.
- The analysis emphasizes the need to monitor the dollar index and Treasury yields, as these are critical factors influencing gold prices.
- Our interpretation: Rising interest rates and persistent inflation expectations may lead to short-term liquidity-driven selling of gold, while it could regain its status as a safe haven if small-cap stocks continue to face pressure from high borrowing costs.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold is directly discussed as a safe haven and its price dynamics are analyzed.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned in the context of its supply dynamics and market positioning.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Fed's interest rate hikes and their impact on gold and silver prices.
EURUSD
The block discusses the Fed's interest rate hikes and their impact on gold and silver prices.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Fed's interest rate hikes and their impact on gold and silver prices.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Fed's interest rate hikes and their impact on gold and silver prices.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Fed's interest rate hikes and their impact on gold and silver prices.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Fed's interest rate hikes and their impact on gold and silver prices.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Fed's interest rate hikes and their impact on gold and silver prices.
FULL
10:00–15:00
- Bitcoin increased by 23% in August, while cocoa, sugar, and wheat rose by 20%, 19%, and 17%, respectively.
- Current inflation is not driven by demand, pointing to 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and retaliatory actions as key factors.
- Silver faces a structural deficit that cannot be quickly addressed, with 70% of its supply derived as a byproduct from copper, lead, and zinc.
- ETF flows for silver have turned positive, with an increase of 3.11 million ounces last week, signaling renewed buyer interest.
- The speaker suggests that platinum and palladium markets typically experience sharper declines than increases, indicating a strategy of shorting these assets while holding long positions in gold and silver.
- Our interpretation: The structural supply issues in silver, combined with positive ETF flows, suggest a potential upward trend in silver prices, while the volatility in platinum and palladium may present shorting opportunities for those invested in gold and silver.
INSTRUMENTS
XAGUSD
The discussion on silver's structural deficit and positive ETF flows indicates a potential upward trend in silver prices.
XAUUSD
The commentary on gold's price dynamics in relation to Fed policy suggests a connection to gold prices.
AUDUSD
The block discusses inflation and the Fed's rate decisions, which directly relate to USD.
EURUSD
The block discusses inflation and the Fed's rate decisions, which directly relate to USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses inflation and the Fed's rate decisions, which directly relate to USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses inflation and the Fed's rate decisions, which directly relate to USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses inflation and the Fed's rate decisions, which directly relate to USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses inflation and the Fed's rate decisions, which directly relate to USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses inflation and the Fed's rate decisions, which directly relate to USD.
BCOUSD
The block mentions crude oil prices rising due to geopolitical tensions, impacting oil markets.
CORNUSD
The block discusses agricultural products, indicating potential impacts on corn prices.
WHEATUSD
The mention of wheat prices rising indicates a connection to agricultural commodities.
FULL
15:00–20:00
- The 100-day moving average serves as a resistance point for silver, with the 200-day moving average at 7365 as the next target if it can close above the former.
- Position sizing is crucial in trading silver, with a recommendation not to allocate more than 10% of total worth to this volatile asset.
- Silver's high beta nature necessitates trailing stop losses as prices increase, highlighting the need for a dynamic risk management strategy.
- The upcoming September 16th meeting is significant, with the futures market currently anticipating a quarter-point rise in rates.
- Our interpretation: The resistance levels in silver, combined with the emphasis on position sizing and risk management, suggest that traders should be prepared for potential volatility and adjust their strategies accordingly.
INSTRUMENTS
XAGUSD
The block discusses silver's resistance levels and trading strategies, making it highly relevant.
XAUUSD
Gold is mentioned in relation to rate hikes and market dynamics, indicating its relevance.
AUDUSD
The block discusses the Fed's potential rate hike, which directly impacts the USD.
EURUSD
The block discusses the Fed's potential rate hike, which directly impacts the USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses the Fed's potential rate hike, which directly impacts the USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses the Fed's potential rate hike, which directly impacts the USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses the Fed's potential rate hike, which directly impacts the USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses the Fed's potential rate hike, which directly impacts the USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses the Fed's potential rate hike, which directly impacts the USD.
FULL
20:00–25:00
- The current job growth rate may be closer to zero due to changes in workforce dynamics, rather than the previously expected 100,000 to 150,000.
- A soft month in job growth does not necessarily signal a breaking point in the economy.
- Gold is expected to perform well in stagflation scenarios, where inflation rises while growth declines.
- If inflation driven by current events decreases and the Fed acknowledges a lack of firm footing, gold could potentially reach the $5,000 mark.
- A diversified investment strategy in precious metals should include ETFs, miners, futures, and physical metals to meet varying market demands.
- Our interpretation: The interplay between inflation, Fed policy, and economic growth suggests that gold's price could significantly rise if inflation pressures ease and monetary policy shifts towards rate cuts.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold is explicitly discussed as a safe-haven asset in response to inflation and Fed policy.
AUDUSD
The block discusses Fed policy and inflation, which directly relates to USD.
EURUSD
The block discusses Fed policy and inflation, which directly relates to USD.
GBPUSD
The block discusses Fed policy and inflation, which directly relates to USD.
NZDUSD
The block discusses Fed policy and inflation, which directly relates to USD.
USDCAD
The block discusses Fed policy and inflation, which directly relates to USD.
USDCHF
The block discusses Fed policy and inflation, which directly relates to USD.
USDJPY
The block discusses Fed policy and inflation, which directly relates to USD.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned in the context of precious metals and inflation dynamics.
FULL
25:00–30:00
- During the Ukraine conflict, significant price movements in metals, wheat, oil, and natural gas occurred predominantly at night, underscoring the value of futures for trading flexibility.
- The mining alpha portfolio consists of 10 carefully selected miners, with a strategy of maintaining no more than 50% cash and limiting individual positions to 10%.
- Historically, September has been a weaker month for gold, but data shows that gold has risen in October 13 out of the last 15 years.
- Current market conditions indicate a potential transition from a hawkish to a neutral or dovish Fed stance, which could catalyze a rally in gold prices.
- The speaker expresses skepticism about Bitcoin, noting a lack of personal transaction experience and concerns regarding associated fraud and crime.
- Our interpretation: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine, may increase volatility in commodity markets, prompting the Fed to reconsider its hawkish stance in light of inflationary pressures, which could create a favorable environment for gold and silver as safe-haven assets.
INSTRUMENTS
XAUUSD
Gold is highlighted as a safe-haven asset in the context of geopolitical tensions.
XAGUSD
Silver is mentioned in relation to its supply dynamics and market conditions.
AUDUSD
The Fed's potential shift from a hawkish to a neutral stance is discussed.
EURUSD
The Fed's potential shift from a hawkish to a neutral stance is discussed.
GBPUSD
The Fed's potential shift from a hawkish to a neutral stance is discussed.
NZDUSD
The Fed's potential shift from a hawkish to a neutral stance is discussed.
USDCAD
The Fed's potential shift from a hawkish to a neutral stance is discussed.
USDCHF
The Fed's potential shift from a hawkish to a neutral stance is discussed.
USDJPY
The Fed's potential shift from a hawkish to a neutral stance is discussed.
FULL
30:00–35:00
- Phil Streible highlights the necessity of a structured daily routine for effective market analysis, advocating for a neutral stance without bias.
- He utilizes average true range for position sizing and emphasizes the importance of selecting suitable contracts for trading.
- Streible notes the successful implementation of a December 65-70 call spread on silver when prices were in the mid-50s, showcasing the utility of options in trading strategies.
- He advises against anchoring predictions around whole numbers, suggesting potential price targets of 100 for silver and 5000 for gold, while acknowledging that prices will continue to rise until they reach a stopping point.
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