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MARKET MEDIA2026-10-27
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Forex Forecast: Why NZD Could Outperform AUD and CAD
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Forex Forecast: Why NZD Could Outperform AUD and CAD
FOREX.com • 2026-10-27 23:03:57 UTC
Upcoming Australian CPI and central bank meetings from RBNZ, Bank of Canada, and the Federal Reserve could lead to significant forex volatility.
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  • Upcoming Australian CPI and central bank meetings from RBNZ, Bank of Canada, and the Federal Reserve could lead to significant forex volatility.
  • All central banks are facing similar inflation pressures, which may hinder clean directional moves in major currency pairs.
  • The Australian dollar has rebounded from 69 cents, with a potential pullback towards 70 cents before a significant move occurs.
  • The New Zealand dollar may have a better chance of a bullish move, especially if RBNZ delivers a hawkish hike.
  • The Canadian dollar has shown a decent pullback but remains above its moving average, indicating potential upside.
  • Our interpretation: The convergence of central bank policies amid rising inflation pressures suggests that the NZD could outperform the AUD and CAD due to differing monetary policy expectations, potentially leading to significant shifts in currency valuations.
READ FULL ANALYSIS
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05:00–10:00
  • The speaker indicates a potential strategy of seeking long positions if there is a downward spike in the market within the next few days or weeks.
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MARKET MEDIA2026-10-27
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USD Crosses Poised for Major Event Risk into Month End | Opening Bell w/ Michael Boutros |10/27/2026
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USD Crosses Poised for Major Event Risk into Month End | Opening Bell w/ Michael Boutros |10/27/2026
FOREX.com • 2026-10-27 14:58:30 UTC
The US dollar is gaining strength ahead of the Fed's rate decision, suggesting potential volatility in the currency market.
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  • The US dollar is gaining strength ahead of the Fed's rate decision, suggesting potential volatility in the currency market.
  • The DXY has pivoted around the 101.77 to 101.92 level, indicating a critical resistance zone that has been monitored for weeks.
  • Initial resistance for the DXY is at 102.37, aligning with a 61.8% retracement of the recent decline, while the yearly high day close is at 102.52.
  • Market expectations for a Fed rate hike are currently at 91%, with December's expectations slightly lower at around 82%.
  • The upcoming core PCE release and Q3 GDP update are anticipated to impact market sentiment and the Fed's policy outlook, especially if dissenters are present in the vote count.
  • Our interpretation: The market is positioned for potential dollar strength if the Fed's decision reflects a hawkish stance, particularly with a higher number of dissenters in the vote count.
READ FULL ANALYSIS
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05:00–10:00
  • To achieve a breakout towards 103 on the DXY, the 102.52 level must be surpassed, with initial resistance identified at 102.37.
  • The recent rally on the DXY failed at the median line, and the breach of the swing low at 111.82 indicates a shift in near-term support dynamics.
  • Testing the 2026 low day close at 111.56 suggests a significant approach to key support levels, particularly the critical 38-year retracement from the 2022 advance.
  • While near-term uptrend support has been broken, the 111.10 level remains a crucial support threshold that could influence future price movements.
  • The Eurodollar is nearing near-term support, with a close below 11.56 raising the risk of further declines towards levels of 11.30 and 11.10.
  • The ECB is anticipated to maintain rates at 2.65%, amid ongoing inflationary concerns, particularly following a weaker-than-expected French consumer sentiment report.
  • Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest that the USD's strength is contingent on breaking key resistance levels, while the Euro's trajectory may be influenced by ECB policy decisions and inflation data.
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10:00–15:00
  • Sterling is testing initial uptrend support, with a break below 33 potentially nullifying the monthly opening range bias.
  • Initial resistance for sterling is at 33.52, while the objective weekly open is at 33.72, indicating key levels to monitor for price movements.
  • The November rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE) is largely priced in, supported by strong employment and inflation data suggesting another rate hike is likely.
  • Strength in sterling may require dollar weakness, as the market anticipates the Fed's rate decision.
  • The Australian dollar has been straddling the 38.2% retracement level without significant movement, indicating uncertainty in its performance.
  • The upcoming CPI release for Australia is expected to influence the Australian dollar's trajectory, with expectations of an increase from 4% to 4.2%.
  • Our interpretation: The dynamics surrounding sterling and the Australian dollar suggest that their movements are closely tied to upcoming economic data and central bank decisions, which could lead to volatility in the forex market.
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15:00–20:00
  • The 1618 extension off the yearly high for Euro Aussie is at 160.44, while the 618 retracement off the 2022 lows is at 5914.
  • If Euro Aussie settles below 5914 on a weekly close basis, there is risk for further downside, potentially targeting the 2017 high week close at 5712.
  • Current bearish momentum is supported by divergence along the lows, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.
  • A close below 5914 would keep the bears in control, suggesting a significant shift in market sentiment.
  • The level to watch for resistance if the market heads lower is the low day close from the previous Wednesday, which converges with slope support.
  • Our interpretation: The current bearish momentum in Euro Aussie, driven by a potential close below 5914, suggests a risk of further declines in the currency pair, which could reflect broader weakness in both the Euro and Australian Dollar.
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20:00–25:00
  • A momentum drop below 30 could trigger a market decline.
  • Initial resistance for the euro is set at 5914, with bearish validation at the low day close from the 14th.
  • The euro is currently influencing market dynamics as key events from the Fed, ECB, and PCE figures approach within the next 48 hours.
  • For the Kiwi dollar, initial resistance is at 5726, while support is identified at 5676, with an anticipated rate hike by the RBNZ later tonight.
  • Caution is advised in trading, as any movement above 5997 would confirm a breakout of the objective weekly high.
  • Our interpretation: The upcoming central bank meetings and economic data releases are likely to induce volatility in the FX markets, particularly impacting the euro and Kiwi dollar. A failure to maintain levels below 5914 could lead to a shift in sentiment, affecting the USD's strength and prompting a reassessment of rate expectations.
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25:00–30:00
  • A daily close below 4010 is necessary to validate a continued downside for the dollar CAD.
  • Initial resistance for the dollar CAD is identified at 4083, which is the 382 retracement of the advance and converges on the 75% parallel.
  • A close above 4140 would indicate potential resumption of upward movement, as this level corresponds to the objective high week close for the year.
  • The upcoming Bank of Canada rate decision is expected to result in a 25 basis point hike, adding significant event risk to the dollar CAD.
  • The convergence of the October low day close and the July low day close at 40.12 to 40.14 is critical, as slipping below this level could trigger a resumptive move.
  • The dollar yen has encountered resistance at the 50% retracement from the January high week close, indicating a pivotal point for potential price action.
  • Our interpretation: The interplay of key resistance levels and the upcoming central bank decisions could lead to heightened volatility in the dollar CAD and dollar yen, influencing trading strategies in the forex market.
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30:00–35:00
  • The dollar-yen setup is currently the least favored among US dollar majors, suggesting a cautious approach to trading this pair.
  • A critical resistance level for the Swiss franc is identified at 83.17, corresponding to the 618 retracement of the decline from the yearly high, indicating potential upward pressure if breached.
  • A close above 4103 in gold is essential to indicate a more significant near-term bullish trend, as this level aligns with key resistance from previous price action.
  • The speaker cautions that trading ahead of major event risks, particularly with the month-end close approaching, may lead to increased volatility and adjustments in positions across the market.
  • Our interpretation: The upcoming month-end close and potential volatility may impact trading strategies, particularly in the USD and gold markets, as traders adjust positions in response to event risks and key resistance levels.
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35:00–40:00
  • The risk for gold remains weighted to the downside while below the 41 level, indicating potential for further declines.
  • Key support for gold is identified at the yearly low, specifically between 3942 and 3951, where a larger reaction is expected if reached.
  • Bitcoin is currently holding support at 7942, with significant resistance at the May high day close and the August swing high of 81447.
  • A close below 7942 and specifically 78 571 for Bitcoin could indicate a fundamental shift in momentum, suggesting an accelerated drop.
  • The upcoming interest rate decision is emphasized as a critical factor that could significantly impact market dynamics.
  • Our interpretation: The proximity of the interest rate decision and the month-end close may lead to increased volatility, prompting traders to adjust positions in response to key support and resistance levels.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-10-27
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FOMC Preview: Will Warsh Tee Up a December Hike? | Daily Market Update, October 27 2026
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FOMC Preview: Will Warsh Tee Up a December Hike? | Daily Market Update, October 27 2026
FOREX.com • 2026-10-27 12:51:17 UTC
Traders are pricing in a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged during the upcoming FOMC meeting.
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  • Traders are pricing in a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged during the upcoming FOMC meeting.
  • The Federal Reserve is not expected to change interest rates, with an expectation of about one and a half voters dissenting in favor of an immediate rate hike.
  • The press conference following the FOMC meeting will be crucial, particularly if Chairman Warsh characterizes inflationary pressures as widespread.
  • Traders are projecting an 80% chance of a rate hike by December, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy.
  • The euro is experiencing weakness due to a poor French consumer confidence number, despite Moody's decision not to downgrade France's debt rating.
  • The chart of the day focuses on the EUR/USD pair, which appears to be range-bound with support near the 11150 zone and resistance closer to 11270.
  • Our interpretation: The upcoming FOMC meeting, along with the uncertainty surrounding GDP data and core PCE inflation measures, suggests that the Fed may adopt a cautious stance on rate hikes, potentially strengthening the dollar and impacting the EUR/USD exchange rate.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-10-27
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Fed, DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, Gold Weekly Technical Outlook with Michael Boutros: 10/26/2026
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Fed, DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, Gold Weekly Technical Outlook with Michael Boutros: 10/26/2026
FOREX.com • 2026-10-27 01:57:45 UTC
Michael Boutros notes that this week features significant event risk, including the FOMC meeting and key inflation data releases.
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  • Michael Boutros notes that this week features significant event risk, including the FOMC meeting and key inflation data releases.
  • The DXY has been trading within a narrow range around 101.92 and 101.94, reflecting limited market movement.
  • Current market expectations indicate a 90% probability that the Fed will maintain rates during the upcoming meeting.
  • The core PCE print, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is projected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month, which may affect market dynamics.
  • The DXY rebounded last week from the objective monthly open at 101.46, indicating potential support as traders seek further clarity.
  • Our interpretation: The forthcoming FOMC meeting and the expected core PCE data release represent a pivotal moment for the USD, as the Fed's approach to interest rates could significantly impact dollar liquidity and foreign exchange markets, especially if inflation trends upward.
READ FULL ANALYSIS
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05:00–10:00
  • The DXY is currently testing initial resistance at 101.92, aligning with the September highs, indicating a critical level for potential upward movement.
  • A break above 102.37 could signal a recovery for the DXY, with key targets at 102.20 and 102.37 that traders should monitor closely.
  • Failure to maintain levels above the objective monthly open of 101.46 may trigger a deeper decline, with a soft target set at 101.26.
  • The euro dollar's pivotal range for establishing a directional bias is identified between 112.75 and 111.10, with momentum indicators reflecting the lowest levels since January 2025.
  • Current market dynamics suggest the DXY is in a holding pattern as it approaches significant event risk later this week, which could influence its trajectory.
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10:00–15:00
  • The euro is currently at support, indicating a potential for a rebound if conditions remain stable.
  • The upcoming ECB commentary is crucial, particularly in light of civil unrest in Europe and fiscal concerns.
  • Yields are declining from their highs, with notable divergence between French and German yields being a key macroeconomic topic.
  • The daily chart for the euro dollar shows a defined range, with resistance at 112.75 and support at 111.10.
  • A close below the objective low day close could lead to a retest of the pivotal support level at 111.10.
  • Traders are advised to stay nimble due to significant event risks, including the Fed rate decision and ECB updates, which may affect market dynamics.
  • Our interpretation: The current market conditions suggest that a break below 111.10 could trigger further downside pressure on the euro, while maintaining levels above 112.75 may provide a pathway for recovery.
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15:00–20:00
  • The British pound rebounded from a key support level at 131.94, representing a 38.2% retracement from last year's low.
  • It has been trading within a significant yearly range, with resistance levels identified at 3648 and 3684.
  • The recent rally in the sterling was driven by an outside weekly reversal that broke the October opening range high.
  • A major resistance level at 3406 coincides with the 50% retracement of the decline from August and the objective yearly moving average.
  • Concerns arise regarding a potential larger setback if the price closes below the 3352 level, which has served as significant support.
  • Our interpretation: If the British pound fails to maintain support around 3352, it could lead to broader bearish sentiment, influencing GBP rates and prompting a reassessment of UK monetary policy expectations ahead of upcoming rate decisions.
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20:00–25:00
  • If the British pound closes below 3352, it poses a risk for a retest of 133, aligning with the 25% parallel of the near-term upslope.
  • Momentum for the British pound has dipped below 50 for the first time in weeks, indicating a loss of upward momentum.
  • The monthly opening range breakout executed a late month high on October 22nd, suggesting caution against a purely bullish bias.
  • Strength in the dollar above 101.92 to 101.94 could lead to a setback for the British pound.
  • Losses for sterling should be limited to 133, which is near the monthly opening range highs.
  • Our interpretation: If the dollar strengthens, it may pressure the GBP/USD pair, particularly if the pound fails to maintain support at 3352, indicating potential volatility in currency markets.
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25:00–30:00
  • The upcoming CPI release on Tuesday night in the United States is anticipated to show inflation increasing from 4% to 4.2%, which is a key indicator ahead of the Fed meeting.
  • The Australian dollar is currently positioned at the 75% parallel, with losses ideally limited to the median line at 69.84 to maintain a bullish outlook.
  • A drop below 69.84 would invalidate the monthly opening range break for the Australian dollar, suggesting a potential shift to a bearish bias.
  • Initial resistance for the Australian dollar is identified at the 200-day moving average, approximately between 70.50 and 70.53, aligning with the upper parallel in the coming days.
  • The speaker emphasizes the necessity of planning trades and reacting to market movements, particularly with significant upcoming events such as rate decisions and inflation data.
  • Our interpretation: A stronger dollar could pressure the Australian dollar, especially if it fails to hold above the critical support level of 69.84, indicating potential volatility in the currency markets.
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30:00–35:00
  • The daily chart indicates a key support level at 140.10, with the 50% retracement of the August rally at 140.16.
  • A break below 140 could signal a resumption of the downtrend, with the next support level identified at 39.50, corresponding to the 618 retracement of the rally.
  • If the price surpasses 140.46, it may suggest a potential shift in the near-term downtrend, indicating a larger swing higher.
  • The upcoming Bank of Canada meeting is significant, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike that could influence USD/CAD dynamics.
  • A daily close below 40.10 would maintain downside pressure, while a close above 40.83 could indicate a more constructive path for the asset.
  • Our interpretation: A stronger dollar could exert pressure on the Canadian dollar, particularly if it fails to hold above the critical support level of 140.10, suggesting potential volatility in the currency markets.
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35:00–40:00
  • A single week close above the 5808 level has been significant resistance for several weeks.
  • The 50% retracement of the decline from the yearly high is at 5808 and 5843, consistently acting as resistance.
  • The Fed is unlikely to raise rates before midterm elections, reflecting political considerations in monetary policy.
  • Despite high inflation, the Fed is expected to maintain rates this month, with a potential hike in December seen as likely.
  • The last rate dot plot indicated a majority expectation for one to two rate hikes before year-end, with December having an 82% chance of a hike.
  • Recent strong employment data, including weekly jobless claims exceeding expectations, suggests a robust labor market that could influence Fed decisions.
  • Our interpretation: The Fed's cautious stance on rate hikes, influenced by political factors and strong employment data, may delay monetary tightening despite ongoing inflation pressures, potentially supporting the dollar and affecting currency markets.
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40:00–45:00
  • A break below the 530 level in bond yields would indicate a larger correction is underway.
  • The 10-year yield encountered significant resistance at 522-529, a level not seen since 2007.
  • Support for the 10-year yield is positioned between 480-485, aligning with a 38.2% retracement of the yearly range.
  • Dollar Yen closely tracks yields, with recent resistance suggesting a potential directional shift.
  • The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current rate, but there are growing expectations for a rate hike in the coming months due to rising inflationary pressures.
  • Our interpretation: The interplay between declining bond yields and the anticipated BOJ rate decision may lead to a weaker dollar against the yen, influencing FX rates and broader market liquidity.
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45:00–50:00
  • For dollar yen to continue its downtrend, rallies must be capped at 5790, with a close below 5660 or 5666 confirming the trend's resumption.
  • A target for the downtrend in dollar yen is set at 5523, coinciding with the May low, August low, and the 618 retracement of the September rally.
  • Dollar Swissi is currently in a constructive phase but is nearing multi-year downtrend resistance, which poses a risk of a larger pullback if it falls below the 82 level.
  • The support level for dollar Swissi is firmly at 82, which has been tested and held, suggesting a potential rebound from this point.
  • To signal the end of the downtrend for dollar Swissi, it must break above the upper parallel around 8285 to 8280.
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50:00–55:00
  • A downside move below 82 in the Swiss franc would open levels around 81.56, which is the September opening range high.
  • Key support levels for the Swiss franc are identified at 81.20 to 81.24, corresponding to the August high close and the 61.8% retracement of the rally off the lows from August.
  • The recent uptrend in the DXY has been strong, with a rally of 4.4% from last month's low, suggesting potential for a pullback but not a definitive reversal.
  • If bond yields continue to drop, it could limit the upside potential for the DXY, indicating a correlation rather than a direct causation.
  • The DXY's momentum remains constructive, with the RSI above 60, typically supporting uptrends.
  • Our interpretation: If bond yields decline further, it may lead to limited upside for the DXY, potentially exerting downward pressure on the dollar against other currencies, especially if risk-off sentiment emerges in equity markets.
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55:00–60:00
  • A drop below 1849 on a weekly closing basis could signal a larger washout within the uptrend for the peso.
  • Current momentum for the peso is overbought, and a break below 1849 would indicate a shift in market dynamics.
  • Gold's technical break below the 4103 level is considered damaging, with the next support identified at 3942.
  • Reclaiming the 4103 level is essential for bulls to invalidate the recent bearish break in gold.
  • The weekly charts for gold have shown clear levels being tested and broken, influencing trading strategies.
  • Our interpretation: The bearish momentum in gold, along with the potential washout in the peso, suggests that risk-off sentiment could lead to further declines in both asset classes, impacting the dollar's strength as traders reassess their positions.
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60:00–65:00
  • The next downside support level for gold is at the objective yearly lows, suggesting potential for further declines.
  • A trigger break occurred after bullish momentum, which is considered technically damaging for gold.
  • The upcoming Fed rate decision could significantly impact gold prices, particularly around the 3959-40 zone.
  • If gold slips below 3886, it could lead to a dangerous situation, with potential declines towards 3840.
  • The market is testing the objective high day close for oil at 103.12, requiring a break above that to resume the uptrend.
  • Bitcoin's recent performance shows a confirmed daily close below the 382 retracement level, raising the potential for a larger washout.
  • Our interpretation: The bearish momentum in gold and Bitcoin, coupled with the critical levels in oil, indicates a risk-off sentiment that may lead to further declines across these asset classes.
FULL
65:00–70:00
  • A significant divergence in stocks, particularly in relation to the AI market, indicates a risk for a deeper pullback.
  • Key support for the S&P 500 is identified at 7577, the May high close, while resistance is at 7817, the record high close.
  • The Nasdaq shows increased risk as it failed to push through the June high, with initial support at 28,0774 and a potential drop towards 27,100 if that level is breached.
  • The Dow has shown recovery potential, with key support at 52,905, the June high close, and resistance at 53,146, which could lead to a retest of the record high close if breached.
  • Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest that if key support levels are breached, it could trigger a broader risk-off sentiment, impacting equities and potentially leading to further declines.
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MARKET MEDIA2026-10-26
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Oil & Forex Outlook: Brent’s $5 Gap Lower, USD/JPY Under Pressure
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Oil & Forex Outlook: Brent’s $5 Gap Lower, USD/JPY Under Pressure
FOREX.com • 2026-10-26 07:05:26 UTC
Brent Crude Oil has gapped nearly $5 lower, the most significant drop since early August, suggesting a potential for a deeper correction.
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  • Brent Crude Oil has gapped nearly $5 lower, the most significant drop since early August, suggesting a potential for a deeper correction.
  • Bullish sentiment appears to be diminishing at current price levels, indicating a possible pullback in oil prices.
  • Resistance levels are nearby, and historical trends suggest that price gaps often get filled, which may allow for a rebound in the near term.
  • In the GBP/AUD market, a pullback towards a support level is observed, with potential for a bullish reversal as prices attempt to stabilize around the 50-day average.
  • The USD/JPY has broken out of a tight consolidation, indicating a bearish setup ahead of the upcoming Fed and Bank of Japan meetings.
  • Despite a slight reduction in positioning, large speculators in the dollar index remain net long, reflecting mixed sentiment in dollar pairs.
  • Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest that while there may be short-term opportunities for bulls, the overall bearish sentiment in oil and currency pairs indicates potential risks for further declines.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-10-26
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CHANNELFOREX.com
RBA November Rate Hike? One Word May Offer a Clue
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RBA November Rate Hike? One Word May Offer a Clue
FOREX.com • 2026-10-26 02:45:00 UTC
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser characterized the inflation outlook as materially worse than previously expected in August, indicating a notable change in inflation expectations.
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  • RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser characterized the inflation outlook as materially worse than previously expected in August, indicating a notable change in inflation expectations.
  • Hauser's choice of the term 'materially' aligns with Governor Michele Bullock's earlier comments on what constitutes a material miss in inflation forecasts.
  • The market is forecasting a trimmed mean inflation reading of 1% for the September quarter, suggesting a renewed acceleration in underlying inflation compared to the RBA's earlier forecast of 0.6%.
  • Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter stated that the RBA has not yet fully addressed inflation, implying that further tightening may be required.
  • Following Hauser's comments, market pricing for a November rate hike has risen to approximately 67%, with expectations for the cash rate to peak above 5%.
  • Our interpretation: The RBA's strong language on inflation, combined with increasing market expectations for rate hikes, signals a potential shift in monetary policy aimed at combating persistent inflation pressures, which could lead to heightened volatility in the AUD and affect broader FX markets.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-10-23
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S&P 500, gold, silver: where the sell-off may find support
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S&P 500, gold, silver: where the sell-off may find support
FOREX.com • 2026-10-23 17:07:53 UTC
The S&P 500 index has broken its trendline, suggesting potential further weakness if it remains below this level.
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  • The S&P 500 index has broken its trendline, suggesting potential further weakness if it remains below this level.
  • Key support for the S&P 500 is identified between 7,620 and 7,630; a break below this could lead to a deeper correction towards 7,500.
  • Gold has fallen below the psychologically significant $4,000 level and is at risk of reaching its June low of 3,942 if selling pressure persists.
  • Resistance for gold is now observed between 4,073 and 4,106, which may act as a barrier if retested after the recent break.
  • Silver has dipped into a long-term support area between $50 and $55 after breaking its July low of 54.77, marking a critical technical zone for potential reversal.
  • Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest that if the S&P 500 and gold continue to breach key support levels, it could trigger further selling pressure, impacting investor sentiment and positioning.
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MARKET MEDIA2026-10-23
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CHANNELFOREX.com
USD/CAD Plunges 7th Straight Day, Gold Slams $4K | Opening Bell with Michael Boutros | 10/23/2026
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USD/CAD Plunges 7th Straight Day, Gold Slams $4K | Opening Bell with Michael Boutros | 10/23/2026
FOREX.com • 2026-10-23 14:59:49 UTC
The US dollar has exhibited a narrow weekly trading range of just 0.6%, with the DXY fluctuating between 101.77 and 101.92 for the past three weeks, indicating a downside risk due to lack of momentum.
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  • The US dollar has exhibited a narrow weekly trading range of just 0.6%, with the DXY fluctuating between 101.77 and 101.92 for the past three weeks, indicating a downside risk due to lack of momentum.
  • Current interest rate expectations for the upcoming week's decision show a 90% probability of maintaining rates, while December's rate hike expectations have decreased from 90% to 80%, reflecting uncertainty in economic data.
  • The Euro is also experiencing range-bound trading, requiring a close above 112.75 to signal a potential breakout, while the support level at 1182 remains critical.
  • The British pound has been trading below resistance for four consecutive days, with the 33.52 level needing to hold as support to facilitate a potential upward movement.
  • Oil prices have risen approximately 2% due to geopolitical tensions involving Houthi attacks and Saudi Arabia, contributing to volatility in the broader market context.
READ FULL ANALYSIS
FULL
05:00–10:00
  • The 34.06 level for the British pound serves as a significant pivot point, representing the 52-week moving average and a key Fibonacci retracement level.
  • A close above the 34.06 level could trigger a move up of 70 pips, while remaining below this level keeps the pound vulnerable.
  • The bullish invalidation level for the British pound is at 33.52, aligning with both the May low and the current week's low.
  • For the Australian dollar, the critical level remains at 69.37, which is the objective June low and has provided strong support.
  • The Australian dollar has consistently failed to close below the 69.37 level, indicating ongoing consolidation.
  • Caution is advised for new topside exposure in the Australian dollar due to the proximity of the 200-day moving average and uptrend resistance.
  • Our interpretation: The British pound's ability to hold above 34.06 is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum, while the Australian dollar's stability at 69.37 suggests a potential breakout if resistance levels are overcome.
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10:00–15:00
  • The 40 16 to 40 10 range is critical as it marks the July low day close and represents a 50% retracement from the advance off the August low.
  • The market is currently on a seven-day decline, a pattern not observed recently, with a similar occurrence noted in July.
  • A close below the 40 level would indicate significant downside potential, suggesting a bearish outlook for the USD/CAD.
  • Resistance is established at 40 83, and as long as the market remains below 40 16 to 40 10, a test of the September high day close and the October 2025 low day close is anticipated.
  • Next support levels are identified at 39 42 and 39 49, with the 200-day moving average at 38 82 acting as a potential barrier for further declines.
  • Our interpretation: The ongoing decline in USD/CAD, coupled with the critical resistance levels, indicates a bearish trend that could be exacerbated by broader dollar liquidity conditions and potential shifts in US rate expectations.
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15:00–20:00
  • The pivot at 5743 for dollar yen is critical, with a confirmed close below the yearly open needed to signal a resumption of the downtrend.
  • The next major pivot zone for dollar yen is at 5523, aligning with the 618 retracement of the advance from the September low.
  • Divergence on the four-hour chart shows that while price has made a lower low, the oscillator is not confirming a new extreme.
  • For dollar Swiss, critical support remains between 82 and 82.14, a significant pivot since last week's decline.
  • A close above the 75% parallel in dollar Swiss could lead to a recovery, with resistance at the weekly range high of 82.70.
  • The upcoming Fed and ECB rate decisions are likely to introduce volatility, necessitating caution in trading due to the associated event risk.
  • Our interpretation: The current market dynamics suggest that the dollar's performance may be influenced by upcoming central bank decisions, potentially leading to increased volatility and shifts in trading strategies.
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20:00–25:00
  • The near-term uptrend indicated by the monthly opening range break suggests a potential late-month high, although there is a risk of a pullback due to resistance levels.
  • Gold has confirmed a break below the monthly opening range lows, with critical support identified at 40103 and 4096; breaching these levels could lead to further downside.
  • Initial support for gold is at 4007; a close below this level could shift focus to lower targets around 3942 and 3956, which represent significant yearly lows.
  • Oil is rebounding amid escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly discussions of potential military actions between Israel and the US, which are influencing market dynamics.
  • The high day close for oil is currently being tested at 10312; a close above this level could indicate a resumption of the July uptrend, with targets set at 10678.
  • Our interpretation: The interplay of geopolitical tensions and potential military actions may heighten volatility in oil prices, which could impact inflation expectations and influence central bank monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates and currency valuations.
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25:00–30:00
  • Bitcoin is currently trading within a critical range, with support identified at 81,447 and a necessary breakout above 89,916 to confirm a bullish trend.
  • The uptrend support for Bitcoin remains intact; however, a clear breakout above 85,400 is essential for trend resumption.
  • The recently released S&P PMI figures indicate manufacturing services are in line with expectations at 57.9, suggesting limited volatility from this data.
  • The opening bell for Monday has been canceled, with a reminder for viewers to participate in the weekly technical outlook session on Monday at 8:30 AM Eastern.
  • Our interpretation: The current stability in Bitcoin's support levels and the S&P PMI figures may lead to cautious trading behavior as market participants await clearer signals for trend direction.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-10-23
OPEN SOURCE
CHANNELFOREX.com
Crude Oil's Surge Raises Stagflation Fears | Daily Market Update, October 23 2026
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Crude Oil's Surge Raises Stagflation Fears | Daily Market Update, October 23 2026
FOREX.com • 2026-10-23 12:50:50 UTC
Brent crude oil prices have surged to 114 and WTI crude oil has surpassed 100, driven by ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and escalating fears of US-Iran military conflict.
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  • Brent crude oil prices have surged to 114 and WTI crude oil has surpassed 100, driven by ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and escalating fears of US-Iran military conflict.
  • The rising energy prices, coupled with increasing interest rates, are beginning to impact both the US and global economies, as evidenced by the 10-year US Treasury yield declining to approximately 5%.
  • Recent Eurozone PMIs fell short of expectations, while UK PMIs slightly exceeded them, indicating a divergence in economic performance across these regions.
  • The upcoming US PMIs are projected to be around 58.4, significantly higher than European figures, suggesting stronger economic growth prospects in the US.
  • Today's chart highlights Brent crude oil's bullish trend since early August, indicating potential for further price increases as long as it remains above the 108 support level.
  • Our interpretation: The combination of rising oil prices and interest rates signals potential stagflation risks, which could lead to a reassessment of US dollar strength and interest rate expectations in the near term.
INFO
MARKET MEDIA2026-10-22
OPEN SOURCE
CHANNELFOREX.com
USD/JPY Breakout Tests Support- Gold Bears Charge | Opening Bell with Michael Boutros | 10/22/2026
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USD/JPY Breakout Tests Support- Gold Bears Charge | Opening Bell with Michael Boutros | 10/22/2026
FOREX.com • 2026-10-22 15:16:01 UTC
Michael Boutros indicates that the US dollar index (DXY) is currently straddling between support and resistance levels around 177, 101, and 92.
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  • Michael Boutros indicates that the US dollar index (DXY) is currently straddling between support and resistance levels around 177, 101, and 92.
  • Recent jobless claims figures were reported at 194,000, which is better than the expected 200,000, reflecting a low fire rate in the United States.
  • There is an 85% probability priced in for an interest rate hike next week, which may affect market dynamics.
  • The euro is nearing a critical support level at 1156, which must hold for any potential recovery to gain traction.
  • Momentum for the euro has dipped below 50 for the first time this week, indicating potential downward pressure on the currency.
  • Our interpretation: The current positioning of the DXY and the euro's critical support level suggests that traders should closely monitor upcoming economic indicators, particularly the interest rate decision and inflation data, as these could lead to significant market movements.
READ FULL ANALYSIS
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05:00–10:00
  • A short position is being taken to a key support zone, indicating potential for downside movement, with resistance noted at 1275, the 2023 high.
  • Sterling has shown strong resistance at 3406, a 50% retracement from August highs, and is currently threatening an outside reversal candle.
  • Support for sterling does not appear until the 3340s, with the median line around 3350 being crucial for near-term price action.
  • The Australian dollar's rally failed at the 38.2% retracement level, suggesting that a drop below 69.82 could lead to a neutral stance.
  • The dollar CAD has broken the objective monthly opening range, with the July low day close being a significant level for further price action.
  • Our interpretation: The current resistance levels and support zones across these currency pairs indicate that traders should closely monitor upcoming economic data, particularly PMI releases, as they could influence market volatility and positioning.
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10:00–15:00
  • Initial resistance for dollar CAD is identified at 40.83, aligning with the 38.2% retracement level.
  • A close above 41.40 is required to support the next upward movement in dollar CAD.
  • If dollar CAD closes below 40.16, significant support is lacking until around 39.42, which includes the September high and October low day closes.
  • The break of the monthly opening range is highlighted as a crucial pivot zone for dollar CAD, suggesting potential volatility.
  • Momentum for dollar CAD is weakening ahead of the 60 level, raising concerns for bullish positions.
  • Our interpretation: The dynamics in dollar CAD indicate that failing to maintain levels above 40.16 could lead to bearish sentiment, prompting a test of lower support around 39.42, reflecting broader market caution ahead of key economic data.
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15:00–20:00
  • The speaker highlights a critical pivot zone for the Kiwi between 5712 and 5726, which aligns closely with the monthly opening range lows.
  • A momentum drop below 50 on the four-hour chart could signal a potential pullback, with the weekly open at 5652 identified as a key level to watch.
  • A close below 5666 in dollar yen would represent a significant break of the monthly opening range, potentially leading to a deeper decline in the currency pair.
  • Current price action in dollar yen is testing pivotal support levels around 5668 to 5666, which have been under discussion for several weeks.
  • If dollar yen breaks below 5666, it could pave the way for a steeper drop, with the next target identified around 5522.
  • Our interpretation: The ongoing testing of support levels in dollar yen suggests that a decisive break could trigger a shift in market dynamics, particularly in the USD/JPY rate channel, indicating potential for further downside if bearish momentum persists.
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20:00–25:00
  • Yields are currently at their lowest levels since June, which may lead to a deeper drop in the dollar-yen pair if key support at 5666 is breached.
  • The pound-yen is testing critical support levels around 209.44; a break below this level would invalidate the recent uptrend.
  • Recent price action in the pound-yen has shown a reversal, with momentum failing to exceed 1170.75, indicating bearish pressure.
  • A drop below the recent low in the pound-yen could suggest a deeper pullback towards levels around 208 or 207.
  • The major pivot zone for dollar-Swiss is identified at 82.82-82.14, and a reaction at this level is crucial for future price movements.
  • Our interpretation: The ongoing testing of support levels in dollar-yen and pound-yen suggests that decisive breaks could trigger significant shifts in market dynamics, particularly indicating potential for further downside if bearish momentum persists.
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25:00–30:00
  • Initial resistance for dollar-Swiss is identified at 82.70, with bearish invalidation dropping to 83.12 if that slope is broken.
  • A significant technical development would occur if dollar-Swiss falls below 82, potentially leading to a decline towards 81.20.
  • Gold is threatening a break of major support, with a critical level at 4096; a daily close below this would validate a bearish scenario.
  • If gold closes below 4096, the next significant levels to monitor are 4007 and 3942, which represent key swing lows.
  • The current setup in gold is critical, converging with a 786 retracement and two equal legs off the highs from August.
  • Our interpretation: The ongoing testing of support levels in dollar-Swiss and gold suggests that decisive breaks could trigger significant shifts in market dynamics, particularly indicating potential for further downside if bearish momentum persists.
FULL
30:00–35:00
  • Oil prices remain vulnerable to a downside break as long as they stay below the weekly open at 101.72.
  • A close below 95.52 in oil could lead to further declines towards key pivot levels at 92.30 and 91.78.
  • Bitcoin has yet to confirm a close above the resistance level of 83,916, which has been tested multiple times since early October.
  • If Bitcoin closes below 81,447, it risks revisiting monthly lows, suggesting a potential bearish trend.
  • Upcoming PMI figures from the UK, US, and Eurozone, along with Michigan consumer confidence updates, are likely to impact market dynamics.
  • Our interpretation: The current testing of critical support levels in oil and Bitcoin indicates that sustained breaks could lead to significant shifts in market sentiment and potential downside risks.
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