Intel / North America
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Raisina Dialogue 2026 II Day 3 - Live II Risks, Rivalries and Resilience
Summary
The global economy faces significant challenges as mechanisms for prosperity are increasingly weaponized for economic coercion. Policymaking is now focused on economic resilience and security due to disruptions from trade breakdowns and energy price volatility, particularly influenced by China's actions. The panel discusses the implications of these shifts and the potential for a fragmented world order.
Economic integration, which took decades to establish, may take a similarly long time to resolve current fragmentation challenges. The emergence of new partnerships between private sector and non-state actors indicates a shift towards a multipolar economic landscape, but the complexities of existing power dynamics and regulatory frameworks must be addressed.
The establishment of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) aims to create a new rules-based order among like-minded nations following the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. However, China's attempts to internationalize its currency have faced challenges, leading to a pivot towards a digital currency strategy.
The European Commission's approach to economic security encompasses three pillars: promote, protect, and partner. Current debates focus on local content rules and foreign direct investment conditions, highlighting the complexities of balancing economic security with free trade principles.
Perspectives
Discussion on economic security and global interdependence.
Proponents of Economic Resilience Strategies
- Advocate for new partnerships between private sector and non-state actors to enhance economic security
- Emphasize the importance of the CPTPP in establishing a rules-based order
- Highlight the need for the EU to adapt its economic security strategies to current geopolitical realities
- Argue that India must build resilience to effectively influence global value chains
- Support Japans efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains for critical minerals
Critics of Current Economic Strategies
- Question the effectiveness of the CPTPP in counterbalancing Chinas economic influence
- Critique the EUs fragmented approach to economic security and the challenges of consensus-building
- Highlight the complexities of navigating energy dependence while leveraging consumption power in India
Neutral / Shared
- Recognize the historical context of economic interdependence and its implications for current policies
- Acknowledge the role of the United States in shaping the current economic landscape through tariffs and trade policies
- Discuss the potential for multilateral cooperation to stabilize the international rules-based order
Metrics
other
55 minutes
duration of the discussion
Time constraints can limit the depth of discussion on complex issues.
we have about 55 minutes and a lot of interesting discussion to be had
other
2018 year
start of weaponization of trade and technology
Identifying the timeline helps understand the evolution of economic tensions.
the weaponization of trade and technology starting sometime around 2018
GDP
1 to 6 percent drop %
potential impact of financial fragmentation
A significant drop in GDP indicates severe economic risks.
there could be, in a worst-case scenario, one to six percent drop in world GDP from financial fragmentation.
alliances
11,500 banks units
number of banks connected to SWIFT
A large network enhances the global financial system's connectivity.
11,500 banks connected to our network in over 200 countries and territories.
membership
the United Kingdom will apply. And then, successfully, he is now the member, UK is now member of CPTPP. units
CPTPP membership
The UK's membership signifies a shift in global trade alliances.
the United Kingdom will apply. And then, successfully, he is now the member, UK is now member of CPTPP.
other
EU-India deal
recently announced free trade deal
It signifies efforts to diversify trade relationships.
We have like the EU India deal that was recently announced.
other
politically divisive debate
debate regarding tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
It highlights the contentious nature of trade defense in Europe.
We went through a very politically divisive debate in Europe about imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
other
the perception of dear economic risks is I would say changing
changing perception of economic risks
Understanding this shift is crucial for effective policy-making.
the perception of dear economic risks is I would say changing
Key entities
Timeline highlights
00:00–05:00
The global economy is increasingly facing challenges as mechanisms for prosperity are being weaponized for economic coercion. Policymaking is now focused on economic resilience and security due to disruptions from trade breakdowns and energy price volatility.
- The global economy, traditionally supported by interdependence and open trade, is now facing a paradox where essential mechanisms for prosperity are being weaponized for economic coercion and punishment. Economic resilience and security have become central to policymaking due to disruptions from trade breakdowns and energy price volatility
- Chinas early adoption of weaponized dependencies has left the rest of the world scrambling to develop tools for economic resilience. This defensive quest risks creating a more fragmented global order, reflecting and reinforcing existing coercive practices
- The panel will explore whether the emerging architecture of economic security can maintain a stable global economic order or if it will lead to a new set of economic structures that are more plurilateral than multilateral
05:00–10:00
The process of economic integration that began post-World War II may take over a decade to resolve current fragmentation challenges. New partnerships between private sector and non-state actors are emerging, indicating a shift towards a multipolar economic landscape.
- The process of economic integration, which lasted about 40 years post-World War II, suggests that current fragmentation may take over a decade to resolve. This highlights the long-term challenges in restoring a cohesive global economic order
- There is a growing trend of private sector and non-state actors forming partnerships aimed at economic security, potentially leading to a more multipolar economic landscape. This shift contrasts with the historical norm of state-centric alliances
- SWIFT emphasizes the importance of a connected global financial system to ensure the free flow of trade and finance, especially amidst fragmentation challenges. Research indicates that financial fragmentation could lead to a significant drop in world GDP, underscoring the economic risks involved
- The emergence of new payment systems, including digital assets, offers opportunities for innovation. However, it is essential to ensure these systems remain interconnected to support a functioning global economy
- Private sector companies face constraints from government policies, leading to differing views on economic resilience. Reconciling these differences is crucial for maintaining a stable international order
10:00–15:00
The CPTPP was established following the US withdrawal from TPP negotiations, aiming to create a new rules-based order among like-minded nations. China's efforts to internationalize its currency have struggled, leading to a pivot towards a digital NEMB as part of its economic strategy.
- The CPTPP was formed in response to the US withdrawal from TPP negotiations, creating a new rules-based order among like-minded countries, allowing nations like China and Taiwan to apply for membership. It includes provisions for digital trade, ensuring the free trade of goods, services, and digital assets, which is vital for economic resilience
- Chinas attempts to internationalize its currency have faltered due to a lack of trust, prompting a shift towards a digital NEMB as part of its economic strategy. This change reflects a significant evolution in Chinas approach to global economic engagement
- Noah Barkin notes the complex economic relationship between China and Europe, with Europe debating the need for de-risking from the US, though this discussion remains largely rhetorical. The European Commission is defining economic security through three pillars: promote, protect, and partner, focusing on industrial policy and innovation
15:00–20:00
The European Commission's definition of economic security encompasses three pillars: promote, protect, and partner. Current debates focus on the contentious nature of local content rules and foreign direct investment conditions.
- The European Commission defines economic security through three pillars: promote, protect, and partner. The promote aspect emphasizes industrial policy and innovation, while the partner aspect focuses on diversifying trade through free trade deals, such as the EU-India deal. The protect pillar is contentious, involving local content rules and conditioning foreign direct investment
20:00–25:00
The EU and Germany are evolving their understanding of resilience in economic security, particularly in response to geopolitical events like Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This evolution involves adapting to changing risks and preparing for both natural disasters and political shocks while managing internal disparities among member states.
- The concept of resilience in economic security is evolving within the EU and Germany, particularly in response to geopolitical events like Russias invasion of Ukraine. This involves adapting to changing risks and preparing for both natural disasters and political shocks
- The EU faces challenges in leveraging its economic power for political ends, as it is hesitant to use economic means against external coercive actions. To enhance economic resilience, the EU should focus on its common market and diversify supplies and markets globally
- The implementation of defensive instruments, such as the anti-coercion instrument, may impact EU member states differently. This necessitates a collaborative approach to manage internal costs and disparities among members
25:00–30:00
India's role as a swing power is influenced by its energy dependence and capital flow needs, which limit its autonomy while providing leverage through its consumption power. To effectively influence global value chains, India must first build its own resilience amidst historical patterns of economic coercion from China.
- Indias position as a swing power is shaped by its energy dependence and capital flow needs, which limit its autonomy while also providing leverage through its massive consumption power and rising middle class. To effectively influence global value chains, India must first build its own resilience
- Tadashi highlights a historical pattern of Chinese economic coercion, referencing past incidents of blackmail against Japan. Despite current economic challenges, this pattern suggests that internal frustrations within China may be influencing its external economic strategies
- The need for strong frameworks in the Indo-Pacific region is emphasized to resist fragmentation and pressure. Collaboration between the private sector and government is essential to enhance resilience in the face of economic coercion