New Technology / Ai Development
Track AI development, model progress, product releases, infrastructure shifts and strategic technology signals across the artificial intelligence sector.
Exclusive Interview with Uber’s Incoming CFO, OpenAI-Amazon Weigh Deal, US-China Chip Trade War
Topic
Uber's Business Outlook and AI Investments
Key insights
- Uber reported fourth quarter results with revenue growth of 20%
- Bookings grew 22% in Q4, with expectations of 17% to 21% growth in the current quarter
- The new CFO, Cristina Murtu, will take over on February 16th
- The expected growth rate incorporates a tailwind from foreign exchange rates
- The reported growth rate would be 21% to 25% when including FX effects
- The underlying business momentum remains unchanged from the second half of the year
Perspectives
Focus on Uber's business outlook and AI investments.
Uber's Incoming CFO
- Highlights Ubers bookings growth of 22% in Q4
- Claims expectations for continued growth despite slight deceleration
- Emphasizes strong underlying business momentum in mobility and delivery
- Affirms bullish outlook on autonomous vehicle technology
- Counters misconceptions about autonomy being cannibalistic to ride-hailing
- Argues that Ubers profits are not concentrated in top markets
Neutral / Shared
- Notes the competitive landscape in the chip sector
- Mentions the importance of driver onboarding and earnings predictability
Metrics
bookings_growth
22%
bookings growth for Uber in Q4
Reflects robust demand and operational efficiency, crucial for future profitability.
bookings grew 22% in Q4.
expected_growth_rate
17% to 21%
expected bookings growth for the current quarter
Sets market expectations and influences stock performance.
you're expecting it to grow anywhere between 17% and 21% in the current quarter.
reported_growth_rate_with_fx
21% to 25%
reported growth rate including foreign exchange effects
Highlights the impact of currency fluctuations on financial performance.
the reported growth rate would be 21% to 25%.
gross_bookings_run_rate
100 billion USD
total gross bookings run rate for Uber
Indicates Uber's scale and market presence, essential for attracting investment.
both of these businesses are growing at scale, 100 billion gross bookings run rate plus.
growth_rate
20%
annual growth rate for Uber's business
A strong growth rate suggests robust demand and potential for future profitability.
And they're both growing 20% plus.
human_drivers
nearly 10 million drivers
total number of human drivers working for Uber globally
This large driver base supports Uber's operational scale and market presence.
we have nearly 10 million human drivers around the world.
autonomous_deployment_range
2,000 to 3,000 vehicles
largest range of autonomous vehicle deployments currently
Understanding the current scale of deployment helps gauge future growth needs.
the largest deployment, whether in the US or in China, is in the 2,000 to 3,000 vehicle range.
growth_rate
34%
AMD's growth in the fourth quarter
Indicates strong performance and market demand for AMD's products.
AMD reported its quarterly results. Ravinyu grew 34% in the fourth quarter.
Key entities
Timeline highlights
00:00–05:00
Uber's bookings grew 22% in Q4, leading to expectations of continued growth despite a slight deceleration forecasted for the current quarter.
- Uber reported fourth quarter results with revenue growth of 20%
- Bookings grew 22% in Q4, with expectations of 17% to 21% growth in the current quarter
- The new CFO, Cristina Murtu, will take over on February 16th
- The expected growth rate incorporates a tailwind from foreign exchange rates
- The reported growth rate would be 21% to 25% when including FX effects
- The underlying business momentum remains unchanged from the second half of the year
05:00–10:00
Uber's significant growth, with a gross bookings run rate exceeding 100 billion and a 20% growth rate, positions it to leverage autonomy as a key driver for urban mobility expansion.
- Both businesses are growing at a scale of 100 billion gross bookings run rate plus and growing 20% plus
- Uber is very bullish about autonomy and sees it as a technological disruption
- Autonomy is expected to become a big contributor to Ubers expansion in urban mobility
- There are misconceptions about autonomy being cannibalistic to ride hailing, which Uber disputes
- Ubers business is growing in markets where autonomous deployments are happening
- % of Ubers business in the US comes from outside the top 20 markets
10:00–15:00
Uber's strategy to deploy autonomous vehicles requires significant partnerships and investments, which could enhance their operational scale and market competitiveness.
- Teslas incident rate is effectively where Wemo incident rates were in Q1 of 2023
- Uber has nearly 10 million human drivers around the world
- The largest autonomous deployment is in the 2,000 to 3,000 vehicle range
- Uber needs tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of cars deployed for autonomy to work at scale
- Uber is working with OEM partners on off-take commitments for vehicle production
- In early years, Uber may buy some cars to learn about the economics of autonomous vehicle models
15:00–20:00
Tech investments in driver onboarding enhance efficiency, leading to higher driver earnings and retention in a competitive labor market.
- Driver onboarding is streamlined to reduce friction for new drivers
- Tech investment has been made to improve the onboarding funnel
- Earnings for drivers are made predictable and remain high relative to alternatives
- Drivers have expressed pain points such as the need for trip transparency
- The product team addresses driver expectations to remain competitive in the labor market
- Advanced Micro Devices reported a 34% growth in the fourth quarter
20:00–25:00
China's insufficient domestic chip manufacturing capacity leads to reliance on imports, while the US and Taiwan significantly outpace China in AI accelerator production.
- Chinas domestic manufacturing capacity for chips is currently insufficient
- The US and Taiwan are projected to produce 30 times the number of AI accelerators compared to China
- Chinese tech companies are reliant on imports for chips, whether legally or through smuggling
- The US government is cautious about selling advanced chips to China due to security concerns
- China lacks comparable manufacturing tools to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in Taiwan, particularly advanced lithography tools
- China is attempting to manufacture advanced chips with second-rate equipment, making scaling difficult
25:00–30:00
Nvidia and Grock's deal enhances inference capabilities, while Amazon's investment in OpenAI aims to improve AI product performance.
- Nvidia and Grock deal may have both offensive and defensive dynamics
- OpenAI and Cerebras announced a deal focusing on inference-specific architectures
- Chip startups are experiencing fast growth and attracting substantial funding
- Investors are still willing to bet on inference-specific chips
- Amazon is making a large equity investment into OpenAI
- Amazon and OpenAI are discussing a large commercial agreement