Politics / United States
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30 minutes of Harry Enten running this week's numbers
Summary
Early voting in Texas indicates a significant shift, with more votes cast in Democratic primaries compared to Republican ones, reversing a trend from the last midterm in 2022. This change could potentially end a 20-year streak of Republican dominance in midterm elections in the state.
Democrats are increasingly optimistic about winning a Senate seat in Texas, particularly if Ken Paxson is the Republican nominee. Prediction markets show a significant decline in GOP chances, from 83% to 59%, while Democratic chances have risen from 19% to 41%.
Gavin Newsom's chances of becoming the 2028 Democratic nominee have decreased from 37% to 28% in the last three months, indicating a decline in his support. Interest in him has waned, as shown by a 63% drop in Google searches since August, suggesting that Democratic voters are less engaged.
Donald Trump's approval ratings have been negative for over a year, particularly regarding the economy and immigration. This decline reflects a significant shift in public sentiment against him on these pivotal issues.
Perspectives
short
Democrats
- Highlight significant shift in early voting towards Democrats in Texas
- Point out rising optimism among Democrats regarding potential wins in key states
- Emphasize Mamdanis popularity as a positive sign for Democratic prospects
Republicans
- Warn about the implications of declining GOP chances in Texas
- Argue that immigration remains a strong issue for Republicans despite challenges
- Highlight the potential for Republican strategies to counter Democratic gains
Neutral / Shared
- Note that prediction markets indicate fluctuating chances for both parties
- Acknowledge that voter sentiment can change leading up to elections
Metrics
votes
62%
Republican votes in the last midterm
This indicates a significant shift in voter preference compared to previous elections.
overwhelmingly the votes for being cast in Republican primaries or 62%
votes
more votes are being cast on the Democratic side
Current early voting trend
This suggests a potential change in the political landscape in Texas.
more people in Texas picking up the Democratic ballot
years
20 years
Duration of Republican dominance
Breaking this streak could indicate a significant political shift.
break an over 20 years stretch
votes
60% to 40%
Prediction market for primary turnout
This reflects a competitive primary landscape that could influence general election outcomes.
the chance to have higher Texas primary turnout. Right now, the people putting their money where their math is actually slightly predicted. There will be more votes cast on the Democratic side than on the Republican side. 60% to 40%
polling
36%
Ken Pax's current polling
Indicates a competitive race for the Republican nomination.
Ken Pax, then actually at the front here at 36%
polling
35%
John Cornyn's current polling
Shows the incumbent's vulnerability in the primary.
then you got corn at 35%
polling
26%
Wesley Hunt's current polling
Highlights the competitive nature of the Republican primary.
Then you got Wesley Hunt at 26%
odds
83%
Ken Pax's odds of winning the GOP nomination
Indicates strong confidence in his candidacy moving forward.
Look at Kowshi. Look at this. Ken Pax and to be the GOP nominee. Look at this. 60% in January. Now 83% chance
Key entities
Timeline highlights
00:00–05:00
Early voting in Texas shows a significant shift, with more votes cast in Democratic primaries compared to Republican ones, reversing a trend from the last midterm in 2022. This change could potentially end a 20-year streak of Republican dominance in midterm elections in the state.
- In Texas, early voting patterns have shifted significantly, with more votes cast in Democratic primaries compared to Republican primaries. This marks a reversal from the last midterm in 2022, where Republicans dominated with 62% of the votes. Historically, the last time more people voted in a Democratic primary in Texas during a midterm was in 2002, indicating a potential break in a 20-year streak of Republican dominance
05:00–10:00
Democrats are increasingly optimistic about winning a Senate seat in Texas, particularly if Ken Paxson is the Republican nominee. Prediction markets show a significant decline in GOP chances, from 83% to 59%, while Democratic chances have risen from 19% to 41%.
- Democrats are seeing a real possibility of winning a Senate seat in Texas if Ken Paxson becomes the Republican nominee, which could potentially flip the Senate in their favor. The prediction markets indicate a decline in the GOPs chances of winning the Senate, dropping from an 83% chance a year ago to 59% currently, while Democratic chances have increased from 19% to 41%. This shift reflects changing dynamics in voter sentiment
10:00–15:00
Gavin Newsom's chances of becoming the 2028 Democratic nominee have decreased from 37% to 28% in the last three months, indicating a decline in his support. Interest in him has waned, as shown by a 63% drop in Google searches since August, suggesting that Democratic voters are less engaged.
- Gavin Newsoms chances of becoming the 2028 Democratic nominee have decreased from 37% to 28% in the last three months, indicating a decline in his support. Interest in him has waned, as shown by a 63% drop in Google searches since August, suggesting that Democratic voters are less engaged
15:00–20:00
Donald Trump's approval ratings have been negative for over a year, particularly regarding the economy and immigration. This decline reflects a significant shift in public sentiment against him on these pivotal issues.
- Donald Trumps approval rating has been negative for over a year, particularly on the economy, which was once his strong suit. This decline reflects a shift in public sentiment against him on pivotal issues, including immigration, where his approval has also turned negative following protests
20:00–25:00
Zoran Mamdani is the most popular Democrat in New York City, with a net favorability rating of plus 48 points. Trump's approval ratings are notably low, at negative 27 points, marking the weakest position he has faced in his presidency.
- Zoran Mamdani is the most popular Democrat in New York City, with a net favorability rating of plus 48 points, surpassing predecessors Eric Adams and Bill DeBlasio. His statewide popularity remains strong, holding a positive net favorability rating of plus 16 points, making it difficult for Republicans to challenge him in the midterms
- Trumps approval ratings are notably low, with a negative 27 points going into the State of the Union address. This marks a significant decline compared to previous years and is the weakest position he has faced in his presidency, particularly among independent voters
- When comparing Trumps current approval ratings to those of other 21st-century presidents at the same point in their second terms, he is significantly lower. His minus 27 points contrasts sharply with Obamas minus 15 and Bushs minus 11, indicating struggles against both his past performance and historical benchmarks
25:00–30:00
Donald Trump's approval ratings are significantly low, with a negative 27 points among independents, indicating a challenging political landscape. His recent State of the Union address was the least well-received, with only 38% of viewers rating it very positively.
- Trumps approval ratings are significantly low, with a negative 27 points going into the State of the Union address. He is particularly underwater among independents, where he is 47 points below water, indicating a challenging political landscape
- Historically, State of the Union addresses do not significantly shift approval ratings, averaging zero points change since 1977. Trumps recent address was the least well-received, with only 38% of viewers rating it very positively, showing waning support even among his base
- Trump has maintained a negative net approval rating for 351 consecutive days, marking a near-historic low for a president in their second term. This prolonged unpopularity suggests difficulties ahead as he navigates the political environment