Politics / India

The conflict between Iran and the United States has led to significant changes in various global metrics over a span of 33 days. Before the war, negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program were ongoing, but now Iran views nuclear weapons as essential for deterring aggression. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has drastically shifted from open oil flow to a blockade, resulting in a global oil shock. Gulf states experienced a transition from a tense but stable environment to active military engagements, with air bases under attack and oil facilities targeted. Trump's approval ratings initially rose during the conflict but are now declining as costs increase and no clear resolution is in sight. Oil prices surged from $82 to $118 per barrel, raising concerns about a potential recession. Iran's military capabilities have also changed, with air defense systems degraded and missile stockpiles drawn down. Proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis have resumed strikes against U.S. bases, indicating a shift in their operational status. U.S. allies, previously skeptical but quiet, are now visibly divided, expressing reluctance to engage in the conflict. Public sentiment in Iran has shifted from widespread protests against the regime to a muted opposition, as nationalistic feelings take precedence in the face of external threats. Ceasefire negotiations that were once legitimate have now stalled, with hard positions taken by both sides and no framework for dialogue.