Politics / Brazil
Gubernatorial Elections in Brazil: Key Insights
Elections for governors in three Brazilian states are under scrutiny, highlighting the significance of these races beyond local voters. Polling data reveals varying levels of support for candidates in Rio de Janeiro, Paraná, and Pará, with notable leads and competitive scenarios.
Source material: G1 reveals survey round on governor elections
Summary
Elections for governors in three Brazilian states are under scrutiny, highlighting the significance of these races beyond local voters. Polling data reveals varying levels of support for candidates in Rio de Janeiro, Paraná, and Pará, with notable leads and competitive scenarios.
In Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes leads with 34% of voter intentions, significantly ahead of Douglas Fua at 9%. A second-round simulation shows Paes maintaining a strong advantage with 49% against Fua's 16%.
Paraná's gubernatorial race features Senator Sejumuro leading with 35%, while his main competitor, Rafael Greca, trails at 15%. In second-round simulations, Sejumuro is projected to win with 49% against Greca's 29%.
In Pará, Dr. Daniel Santos and Hannah Gassan are in a tight race, with Santos at 34% and Gassan at 29%, both within the margin of error. A significant portion of voters, 25%, remain undecided, indicating potential volatility in the election outcomes.
Perspectives
Proponents of Eduardo Paes and Sejumuro
- Eduardo Paes leads the race in Rio de Janeiro with 34% of voter intentions
- Sejumuro holds a significant lead in Paraná with 35%
Critics of current polling data
- High percentage of undecided voters raises questions about the reliability of polling figures
Neutral / Shared
- A significant portion of voters in Pará remain undecided, indicating potential volatility
- Polling conducted by Quest included a diverse sample across the three states
Metrics
34%
Dr. Daniel Santos's voter intentions
This percentage indicates his current standing in the race
Dr. Daniel Santos has 34%.
29%
Hannah Gassan's voter intentions
This percentage shows her competitive position against Santos
Hannah Gassan appears with 29%.
25%
Percentage of undecided voters
A significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, impacting the election's outcome
The decision is 25%.
12%
Percentage of voters who are either blank or do not plan to vote
This indicates potential voter apathy or dissatisfaction with candidates
White, null, or that does not intend to vote, is 12%.
900 units
Total participants in the survey conducted in Pará
This number reflects the engagement of voters in the gubernatorial race
900 people in Pará.
Key entities
Key developments
Phase 1
Eduardo Paes leads the gubernatorial race in Rio de Janeiro with 34% of voter intentions, followed by Douglas-Fuas at 9%. In Paraná, Senator Sejumuro is ahead with 35%, while Dr.
- Eduardo Paes is leading the gubernatorial race in Rio de Janeiro with 34% of voter intentions, significantly ahead of Douglas-Fuas at 9%
- In a second-round simulation, Paes holds a strong advantage with 49% compared to Douglas-Fuass 16%
- Senator Sejumuro leads in Paraná with 35%, while his main competitor, Ré, has 18%. Second-round simulations show Sejumuro at 49% against Rés 30%
- Ratinho Juniors presidential ambitions appear to be declining, as his endorsed candidate, Sandro Alex, is polling in single digits
- In Pará, Dr. Daniel Santos and Hannah Gassand are in a competitive race, with 22% and 19% respectively, indicating a technical tie
Phase 2
A recent survey indicates a competitive gubernatorial race in Pará, with Dr. Daniel Santos at 34% and Hannah Gassan at 29%.
- A recent survey shows a competitive gubernatorial race in Pará, with Dr. Daniel Santos of Podemos at 34% and Hannah Gassand of MDB at 29%, both within the margin of error
- 25% of voters remain undecided, while 12% are either blank or do not plan to vote, indicating significant uncertainty in the election
- The race is influenced by the legacy of former governor Élder Barbálio, who left to run for a Senate seat, allowing his successor, the current vice-governor, to enter the contest
- Conducted by Queste from April 21 to 25, the survey included 1,200 participants in Rio de Janeiro, 1,104 in Paraná, and 900 in Pará, with all results registered with the electoral authority