New Technology / Gpu
Technology signals, innovation themes, and applied engineering trends. Topic: Gpu. Updated briefs and structured summaries from curated sources.
Nvidia CRUSHES Earnings. So Why Did the Stock Crash?
Full timeline
0.0–300.0
Nvidia reported $68.1 billion in revenue, a 73% increase year over year and a 20% increase quarter on quarter. Despite strong earnings, the stock saw a 5% sell-off after an initial rise of 3%.
- Nvidia reported a staggering $68.1 billion in revenue, marking a 73% increase year over year and a 20% increase quarter on quarter. Despite this impressive performance, the stock experienced a 5% sell-off after initially rising 3%
- The conversation focused on the demand for Nvidia chips compared to the potential for using cheaper hardware for AI inference. There was a mention of a deep sea model that gained traction in the App Store organically
- The narrative around the deep sea moment indicated that it was not just about distilling models. It was about training a new model with limited resources, leading to misconceptions about distillations capabilities in achieving top performance
- Nvidias inventory situation appears strong, with $21.4 billion in inventory and $95.2 billion in supply commitments with chip manufacturers. This positions Nvidia well to meet demand in the coming quarters without running out of chips
- A concern raised was the shift from chip bottlenecks to energy bottlenecks. Even if Nvidia secures the necessary chips, there may not be enough energy available to power the AI labs and hyper-scalers that want to utilize them
- The earnings recap from semi-analysis highlighted Nvidias strong gross margin and revenue. The company has strategically secured inventory and capacity, indicating confidence in meeting future demand
300.0–600.0
Nvidia reported $68.1 billion in revenue, reflecting a 73% year-over-year increase. Despite this growth, the stock faced a 5% sell-off due to concerns over energy bottlenecks affecting future operations.
- Nvidias earnings report revealed a staggering $68.1 billion in revenue, marking a 73% year-over-year increase. Despite this impressive performance, the stock experienced a notable sell-off, dropping 5% after initially rising 3%
- Concerns about potential energy bottlenecks have emerged. Nvidias customers may face challenges in securing sufficient energy to power their operations, which is critical for future growth
- Jensen Huang, Nvidias CEO, pushed back against the narrative of a SaaS apocalypse. He asserted that AI agents will enhance rather than replace existing software tools, countering fears of widespread job loss
- The demand for Nvidias chips is primarily driven by the AI and cloud computing sectors. These sectors accounted for 91.4% of the companys sales in the last quarter, raising concerns among gamers
- Jensen Huang noted that the pressure on Nvidia to deliver flawless quarterly results is increasing. Market expectations have escalated, with some analysts suggesting that Nvidia should aim for even higher net income figures
- The conversation also touched on the potential for nuclear power as a solution to energy bottlenecks. Various strategies are being explored to address energy supply issues, which could impact Nvidias ability to meet growing demand
600.0–900.0
Gavin Baker from Citadel Securities highlighted significant shortages of both watts and wafers, which may hinder hyperscalers from overbuilding. The report suggests that achieving a scenario requiring 1,000 times more compute would take considerable time, allowing humans to adjust to AI's potential benefits.
- Gavin Baker from Citadel Securities noted that the world is facing significant shortages of both watts and wafers. This shortage may take years to resolve and could hinder hyperscalers from overbuilding due to a lack of necessary resources
- Baker suggested that achieving a scenario requiring 1,000 times more compute would take considerable time. This would allow humans to adjust and maximize AIs potential benefits, as rapid automation requires a substantial increase in compute intensity beyond current levels
- The marginal cost of compute could rise above that of human labor for certain tasks. This creates an economic boundary that prevents substitution, contrasting with narratives that assume a frictionless replication of intelligence
- Citadels report, The 2026 Global Intelligence Crisis, critiques the prevailing labor displacement narrative. It highlights that job postings for software engineers are increasing rapidly, suggesting that the current labor market is not as threatened as some believe
- The growth of AI startups is notable, with Suno reporting $300 million in annual recurring revenue for AI music. This growth appears to be additive rather than substitutional, as many non-technical individuals can now create apps and songs
- Citadels findings indicate that new business formation is expanding rapidly, according to data from the US Census Bureau. This trend is encouraging, suggesting a vibrant entrepreneurial environment despite concerns about job displacement
- Nvidias stock is experiencing a decline due to market mechanics, specifically the need to clear an options wall at $200 a share. Many investors had long calls into the earnings print, and since the stock did not clear that threshold, brokers are selling stock to reverse some of those positions
900.0–1200.0
Nvidia's stock is currently under scrutiny, with analysts recommending a wait-and-see approach until the next quarter. Samsung has achieved a significant milestone by becoming the first Korean company to reach a $1 trillion market cap.
- Nvidias stock performance is under scrutiny. Analysts suggest holding judgment until the next quarter, as market dynamics may influence stock movements
- Samsung has achieved a significant milestone by becoming the first Korean company to reach a $1 trillion market cap. It now ranks just below Berkshire Hathaway and above Walmart
- The importance of companies in the AI sector is growing, especially in fabrication and related technologies. This trend reflects their increasing relevance in the evolving market landscape
- There was a discussion about the margins of $1 trillion companies. It was noted that not all of these companies operate with high margins
- Broadcoms position above Samsung in market capitalization highlights the competitive landscape among tech giants. Ongoing developments in AI and technology are reshaping market valuations
- The conversation addressed the broader implications of market mechanics, particularly regarding Nvidias stock and the options market. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors