Politics / Australia

Australian share market response to Middle East events

Matthew Haupt critiques the Australian share market for underestimating the geopolitical risks associated with the ongoing events in the Middle East. He describes the market's muted reaction as indicative of a potential crisis ahead, suggesting that investors are not fully accounting for the seriousness of the situation.
Australian share market response to Middle East events
abcnewsaustralia • 2026-03-02T07:30:23Z
Source material: ASX "sleepwalking" in response to events in the Middle East, says Matthew Haupt | The Business
Summary
Matthew Haupt critiques the Australian share market for underestimating the geopolitical risks associated with the ongoing events in the Middle East. He describes the market's muted reaction as indicative of a potential crisis ahead, suggesting that investors are not fully accounting for the seriousness of the situation. Haupt highlights the energy sector's performance, noting that it does not reflect the heightened risks stemming from the geopolitical landscape. He argues that despite OPEC's decision to increase production, the market's response remains inadequate given the current circumstances. He warns that the Australian market is 'sleepwalking' into a crisis, with expectations of a significant wake-up call in the near future. Haupt anticipates that the US cash market's opening will reveal further selling pressure on equities, indicating a lack of confidence among investors. Haupt also addresses the implications of rising oil prices on the Australian economy, suggesting that while there may be benefits from exports, the overall impact on consumers is negative. He likens the increase in oil prices to a tax on consumption, which could further complicate the inflation battle already faced by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Perspectives
short
Matthew Haupt's perspective
  • Critiques the Australian share market for underestimating geopolitical risks
  • Describes the markets muted reaction as indicative of a potential crisis
  • Highlights inadequate performance of the energy sector in reflecting risks
  • Warns that Australia is sleepwalking into a crisis
  • Anticipates further selling pressure on equities following US market opening
  • Predicts job losses due to AI technologies trimming inflated workforces
Metrics
oil
15%
pre-invasion oil price increase
This significant increase indicates market volatility and investor concerns.
we saw about a 15% move in oil pre this.
GDP impact
0.1%
GDP drag per $10 increase in oil
This relationship highlights the economic implications of rising oil prices on consumer spending.
every $10 increase in oil is like a .1% drag on GDP
Key entities
Countries / Locations
Australia
Themes
#australian_market • #crisis_warning • #geopolitical_risks • #oil_prices
Timeline highlights
00:00–05:00
Matthew Haupt warns that the Australian share market is underestimating the geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East, suggesting a potential crisis ahead. He believes the energy sector's performance does not adequately reflect these risks, particularly in light of OPEC's production increase.
  • Matthew Haupt expresses concern that the Australian share market is underestimating the seriousness of the events in the Middle East, suggesting that Australia is sleepwalking into a potential crisis. He warns that the muted reaction today does not account for the potential severity of the ongoing geopolitical situation
  • Haupt believes the energy sectors performance is not reflecting the geopolitical risks adequately, noting that the markets pricing of oil risks seems appropriate given prior increases in oil premiums before the current conflict. He argues that OPECs decision to raise production is insufficient to counteract the current geopolitical risks affecting oil prices
05:00–10:00
Matthew Haupt indicates that the Australian share market is not fully recognizing the geopolitical risks from the Middle East. He warns that this oversight could lead to a significant crisis.
  • Matthew Haupt warns that the Australian share market is underestimating the seriousness of the events in the Middle East, suggesting that Australia is sleepwalking into a potential crisis