Geopolitic / Africa
Geopolitical developments, escalation signals, and diplomatic moves. Topic: Africa. Updated briefs and structured summaries from curated sources.
The Wire - February 16, 2026
Full timeline
0.0–300.0
Concerns are escalating regarding the detention of two American pilots in Guinea, who have been held for nearly six weeks under uncertain circumstances. The situation is further complicated by a military coup, with speculation that the pilots may be used as leverage by the new government.
- Concerns are growing for two American pilots, Brad Schlenker and Fabio Espinal Nunez, who have been detained in Guinea for almost six weeks. The circumstances surrounding their detention are hard to verify, leading to speculation that there may be more to the story than what has been publicly disclosed. The families of the pilots are attempting to leverage media attention to pressure the White House for a quicker resolution, indicating a lack of progress in diplomatic efforts
- The situation in Guinea is complicated by the recent military coup led by General Maldonny Dumbooyah, who may be using the pilots as a bargaining chip to gain legitimacy for his government. There is an assumption that the pilots detention could be a strategic move to attract attention from the United States, which might lead to a more active response. However, if the pilots are not released promptly, Dumbooyah could face severe consequences given the U.S. militarys history of intervention
- The exact location of the pilots is uncertain, but they are likely being held in Konakri Central Prison, known for its horrific conditions. There are doubts about their survival if they remain in such an environment, as overcrowding and guard brutality are prevalent. The urban terrain surrounding the prison complicates any potential rescue efforts, as defenses are sparse and military forces are primarily concentrated at the airport
Piracy, Smuggling and the Scramble for Port Access in the Horn of Africa
Full timeline
0.0–300.0
The webinar addresses the political turbulence and security challenges in Somalia, highlighting issues such as piracy, smuggling, and competition for port access. It also discusses the impact of insurgencies like al-Shabab and the Islamic State on the stability of the region.
- The webinar discusses the political turbulence and security situation in Somalia and its impact on the Horn of Africa
- Key topics include piracy, smuggling, and competition for port access in the region
- Edward Beals provides an overview of challenges facing Somalia, including tensions within the federal state system
- Insurgencies such as al-Shabab and the Islamic State Somalia province pose significant threats to stability
- The federal government in Mogadishu faces opposition from semi-autonomous states like Puntland and Dubelland
- Corruption and insecurity are chronic issues affecting governance in Somalia
- The discussion includes insights from experts in conflict security and development
300.0–600.0
Al-Shabab generates an estimated $100-200 million annually through illegal activities and has increased its fighter count to between 10,000 and 18,000 by 2025. The ISSP, aligned with the Islamic State, reportedly amassed over $6 million from illegal taxation and kidnappings between 2022 and 2024.
- Al-Shabab generates an estimated $100-200 million annually through various illegal activities including taxation and smuggling
- The number of al-Shabab fighters is estimated to have increased to between 10,000 and 18,000 by 2025
- ISSP, aligned with the Islamic State, aims to establish a transnational caliphate and has been linked to plots in the US, Sweden, and Italy
- ISSP reportedly amassed over $6 million between 2022 and 2024 through illegal taxation and kidnappings
- Al-Shabab maintains a centralized hierarchical structure under the leadership of Armeh Diriyeh, with no evidence of internal conflict
- ISSPs leadership is dominated by figures from Puntland clans, but over half of its members are foreign fighters
- Al-Shabab governs most rural areas in southern Somalia, providing security and regulating economic activities
- By late 2025, ISSP faced severe operational setbacks, with claims of a 95% degradation of its capabilities
600.0–900.0
The ISSP has reportedly decreased as a threat, according to Puntland officials. Recent piracy incidents have been linked to the Houthi naval campaign, although the relationship appears opportunistic rather than coordinated.
- The ISSP has reportedly decreased as a threat, according to Puntland officials
- A previous report highlighted an uptick in piracy following the start of the Houthi naval campaign against commercial shipping
- Speculation arose regarding a potential coordination between Somali pirates and the Houthis, possibly influenced by Iran
- The first successful piracy attack since 2017 occurred in December 2023, coinciding with Houthi attacks on shipping
- Research indicates that the relationship between Houthi actions and Somali piracy is opportunistic rather than coordinated
- The limited international naval presence in the region allowed pirates to exploit the situation
- Houthi maritime strategy aims to deter shipping traffic for political leverage, contrasting with the pirates goal of hijacking for ransom
- The dynamics of piracy and Houthi actions reflect differing motivations and operational strategies
900.0–1200.0
The resurgence of piracy in the Horn of Africa has leveled off due to increased defensive measures by shipping lines. Smuggling of weapons from Iran to Somalia and Yemen has been a well-established pattern since at least 2013, facilitated by weak governance and political fragmentation.
- The resurgence of piracy in the Horn of Africa has leveled off since early 2025, attributed to increased defensive measures by shipping lines
- Best Management Practices (BMP 5) have been implemented, including the use of guards and physical barriers to deter piracy
- Smuggling of weapons from Iran to Somalia and Yemen has been a well-established pattern since at least 2013
- Somali waters are poorly patrolled due to weak governance and political fragmentation, facilitating both piracy and smuggling activities
- The price of weapons is significantly higher in the Horn of Africa compared to Yemen, driving arms trafficking in the region
- There are established smuggling routes from Yemen to the Horn of Africa, including Eritrea and Sudan, due to the abundance of weapons in Yemen
1200.0–1500.0
Recent reports suggest potential cooperation between the Houthi movement and Al-Shabaab, with indications of Somalis traveling to Yemen for military training. The political landscape in Somalia is increasingly polarized, particularly regarding upcoming elections and the recognition of Somaliland by Israel.
- Recent reports indicate potential cooperation between the Houthi movement and jihadi groups in Somalia, particularly Al-Shabaab
- The UN Monitoring Groups mid-2023 report highlighted high-level meetings between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab, although evidence remains limited
- There are indications of Somalis traveling to Yemen for military training, with some possibly returning to Somalia to provide training
- So far, the transfer of advanced weaponry from Yemen to Somalia has not been observed, with only small arms and explosives reported
- The political landscape in Somalia is increasingly polarized, particularly regarding the issue of Somaliland and its recognition by Israel
- Upcoming elections in Somalia are creating tensions, especially with the proposed shift to a one person, one vote system
- Concerns are rising about the feasibility of conducting elections by mid-May 2026 due to logistical challenges and security issues
- The power struggle between the UAE and Saudi Arabia is influencing the geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa
1500.0–1800.0
Political elites in Puntland and Somaliland are increasingly concerned about the centralization of power under President Hassan Sheikh, which may influence upcoming elections. The creation of the SSE Hatumo political unit in 2023 has further escalated tensions in the region, complicating Somaliland's quest for recognition.
- Political elites in Puntland and Somaliland are concerned about the centralization of power under President Hassan Sheikh
- Somaliland, a self-declared republic since 1991, has faced political instability and security tensions, particularly with Puntland
- The African Union opposes border changes, complicating Somalilands quest for recognition as an independent state
- A new political unit, SSE Hatumo, was created in 2023, escalating conflicts in the region claimed by both Somaliland and Puntland
- The UAE has expanded its influence in the Horn of Africa by investing in commercial and military ports along the Somali coast
- Saudi Arabia has increased its involvement in Djiboutis maritime infrastructure over the past year
- Geopolitical interactions in the region are complex, with various national and regional governments seeking to protect their interests
- Predictions of conflict often do not materialize as anticipated due to the lengthy development processes of ports
1800.0–2100.0
Israel's recognition of Somali land has intensified regional tensions, particularly with the UAE, affecting the political landscape in the Horn of Africa. The ongoing conflict in Sudan and the UAE's military support to Somalia against Al-Shabaab further complicate the security dynamics in the region.
- Israels recognition of Somali land has sparked tensions with the UAE, leading to a shift in regional dynamics
- The UAEs engagement with unrecognized states is creating friction with regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey
- The ongoing conflict in Sudan poses a risk of drawing in neighboring states, complicating the regional security landscape
- Historical conflicts in the Horn of Africa have typically revolved around contested borders and proxy warfare
- The UAE has provided military support to Somalia against Al-Shabaab, impacting counterterrorism efforts in the region
- Ethiopias role is crucial as it maintains links with various parties in Somalia, potentially influencing future engagements
- The political and military landscape in the Horn of Africa is at risk of becoming more fractured and militarized
2100.0–2400.0
Political tensions in Somalia are rising as concerns grow over President Hassan Sheikh's potential unilateral term extension. The geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa is increasingly complex, influenced by external powers and internal rivalries.
- Concerns arise over President Hassan Shakes potential unilateral term extension amid political tensions in Somalia
- Unconfirmed reports suggest possible UAE withdrawals from Puntland, raising fears of a power vacuum
- The Islamic States Somalia province may exploit political instability in the region
- Tensions are escalating between Somalia and Somaliland, particularly in the disputed northeastern state
- The geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa is characterized by shifting alliances and external influences
- Analysts highlight the complex interplay of Gulf rivalries affecting regional politics
- The maritime domain is a potential operational area for groups like Al Shabab and IISSP
- The Horn of Africa has become a geopolitical battleground due to its strategic location and resource competition
2400.0–2700.0
Al Shabab and the Islamic State province of Somalia have not engaged in naval attacks, despite historical rhetoric against piracy. The motivations of regional pirates are primarily financial, with a significant migration pattern from the Horn of Africa to Yemen for labor opportunities.
- Al Shabab and the Islamic State province of Somalia have not conducted naval attacks
- Historically, Al Shabab has made statements against piracy, despite not actively suppressing it
- Pirates in the region are primarily motivated by financial gain rather than ideological beliefs
- Members of Al Shabab and ISSP are suspected of traveling to Yemen using small boats and fishing vessels
- There is a significant migration pattern from the Horn of Africa to Yemen for labor opportunities
- Reports indicate that some migrants may have connections to terrorist training camps
- Weapons smuggling from Yemen to Somalia is suspected, but the organization of these operations by Al Shabab is uncertain
- Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has attempted maritime attacks in the early 2020s
- The geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa has been influenced by historical conflicts dating back to the Cold War
2700.0–3000.0
Regional rivalries in the Horn of Africa are intensified by great power competition and resource booms. El Shabbab has regained significant territory, challenging the Federal Government of Somalia's control ahead of the May 2026 elections.
- Regional rivalries, particularly involving Ethiopia, are exacerbated by great power competition due to resource booms and political crusades
- El Shabbab has regained significant territory in Somalia, overturning government gains from the 2022-2023 offensive
- The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is facing internal challenges, including resistance to electoral reforms ahead of the May 2026 elections
- External support for the FGS, including financing from the African Union, is declining, weakening its capacity to combat El Shabbab
- The Somali National Army suffers from logistical issues, insufficient training, and poor leadership, impacting its effectiveness against insurgents
- Despite El Shabbabs advances, it remains largely confined to rural areas, while the government controls major cities
- El Shabbabs battlefield position has improved since the start of 2025, indicating a potential gain in momentum
3000.0–3300.0
The concentration of foreign military bases in the Horn of Africa raises concerns about the securitization of the coastline and its implications for piracy and regional sovereignty. Efforts to combat piracy through enhanced maritime presence and local training have proven insufficient amidst ongoing political fragmentation and external competition for influence.
- The concentration of foreign military bases in the Horn of Africa raises questions about the securitization of the coastline and its impact on piracy
- There is concern that foreign military presence may fuel a regional scramble for coastal state sovereignty and contribute to smuggling and arms networks
- The Somali populations attitude towards Somalilands quest for independence is a significant aspect of the regions political dynamics
- Efforts to combat piracy have included enhanced maritime presence and training of local coast guards, but these measures alone are insufficient
- The European Union Naval Force Atalanta has seen a reduction in its naval presence, currently operating with only one warship
- Western shipping nations are perceived as lacking sufficient commitment to stabilizing Somalia, which is crucial for addressing piracy effectively
- The long-standing political fragmentation in Somalia complicates efforts to resolve piracy and related issues
- Regional powers are competing for influence in the Horn of Africa, further complicating the security landscape
3300.0–3600.0
The military burden in Somalia increasingly relies on funding from European and North American nations since 2025. Despite operational setbacks, the group in Puntland continues to pose a localized threat due to its reliance on local communities and foreign fighters.
- The military burden in Somalia has increasingly relied on funding from European and North American nations since 2025
- The Indian Navy has become more active in the Horn of Africa during the current crisis, although sustained engagement remains uncertain
- Public sentiment in Somalia regarding Israeli recognition of Somaliland appears to be weak, with low attendance at mobilization efforts
- Eritreas reaction to Israeli recognition of Somaliland is critical, especially given its disputes with Ethiopia that could escalate into militarized conflict
- The group operating in Puntland has suffered operational setbacks since 2025, losing control over key areas and revenue streams
- Despite heavy losses, the group has not been eliminated and continues to pose a localized threat in Puntland
- The groups reliance on local communities and foreign fighters complicates efforts for its eradication
3600.0–3900.0
The webinar featured a discussion moderated by Edward, with contributions from panelists Wolf Christian and Dan. Due to time constraints, not all participant questions could be addressed, but a recording will be available on the website.
- The discussion was moderated by Edward, who acknowledged the time constraints
- Several questions were submitted by participants, but not all could be addressed
- The panel included experts Wolf Christian and Dan, who contributed to the discussion
- A recording of the webinar will be made available on the website soon
- The moderator expressed gratitude to both the panelists and the audience for their participation
Africa’s Internationalized Conflicts and the Broken Crisis Response | with Comfort Ero
Full timeline
0.0–300.0
Conflict dynamics in Africa have worsened over the past decade due to governance issues, resource competition, and disconnects between authorities and rural communities. The sovereign debt crisis and unresolved historical conflicts further exacerbate violence and instability in regions like Sudan and the Sahel.
- Conflict dynamics in Africa have evolved significantly over the past decade. Deeper structural factors are driving crises in regions like Sudan and the Sahel
- Governance issues, competition over resources, and a disconnect between central authorities and rural communities contribute to worsening conflicts
- Poverty and a debt crisis exacerbate competition for resources. This leads to violent electoral disputes in countries such as Tanzania and Sudan
- Historical conflicts often remain unresolved. These situations create entrenched and intractable issues that perpetuate violence and instability
- Forced transitions in countries like Sudan and Ethiopia have derailed hopes for democratization. This has led to a reversal of progress in the Sahel and West Africa
- The sovereign debt crisis affects many African nations. Significant burdens impact their ability to stabilize and govern effectively
300.0–600.0
The narrative of 'Africa rising' has reversed due to COVID-19, leading to increased debt burdens on many African countries. This situation is compounded by structural inequalities and a youthful population demanding genuine democratization amidst ongoing political issues.
- Before COVID-19, there was a narrative of Africa rising with improving credit ratings. However, this trend reversed due to the pandemic and increased debt burdens on future generations
- Many African countries are now facing significant debt, impacting their governance and economic stability. This situation is worsened by structural inequalities and ongoing political issues
- Africas youthful population is a critical factor in the continents future. While the world is aging, Africa is becoming younger, presenting both opportunities and challenges
- Countries experiencing conflict often share a common trait: a young population frustrated with ineffective governance. This frustration has led to demands for genuine democratization
- The Sudanese revolution six years ago was largely driven by youth, showcasing a diverse coalition of society. This movement aimed to address decades of repression and sought a more representative government
- Omar al-Bashir remains a significant figure in Sudans political landscape, despite being ousted in 2019. His legacy continues to influence the ongoing violent competition within the country
600.0–900.0
The conflict landscape in Sudan has deteriorated, with civilians increasingly caught in violence and wars. The crisis management system has been marginalized, leading to mass displacement and the weaponization of humanitarian assistance.
- Violence and wars are increasingly evident in Sudan, where civilians are caught in the crossfire of a deteriorating conflict landscape. The evolution of technology and weaponry has worsened the situation, complicating crisis management efforts
- The crisis management system, including the U.N. and the African Union, has been sidelined in addressing conflicts in Sudan and the Sahel region. Traditional mediators are no longer the primary advocates for resolution
- Sudan exemplifies the failures of the international crisis management system, highlighting trends such as mass displacement. A quarter of Sudans population is displaced, with neighboring countries also facing crises
- The weaponization of humanitarian assistance has become a significant issue, complicating aid delivery. Humanitarian actors must negotiate passage through various checkpoints controlled by armed groups, increasing risks for aid workers
- While the weaponization of aid is not new, its violent trends have intensified. Historical examples from conflicts in Sierra Leone and Liberia show how humanitarian efforts have been compromised by local power dynamics
- Civilian protection concerns have escalated as safeguards within the crisis management framework have broken down. Declining funding for international humanitarian aid complicates the situation, as external actors prioritize their national security interests
- Conversations about humanitarian truces and ceasefires often lack substance, as these agreements are fragile and short-lived. Militias and government forces exploit the situation, knowing that international actors are less willing to impose constraints
900.0–1200.0
Cuts to international aid have significantly impacted crisis management efforts, particularly in conflict zones. The reduction in funding from major powers complicates the ability of organizations like the United Nations to respond effectively.
- Cuts to international aid have significantly impacted crisis management efforts. Countries like the United States are reducing foreign assistance, which exacerbates challenges faced by humanitarian organizations in conflict zones
- The decline in funding for humanitarian aid is evident across Europe. Development aid has also been reduced, reflecting a broader trend of isolationism among major powers and complicating crisis response efforts
- The United Nations is increasingly being asked to do more with less. It faces a growing demand for aid delivery and peacebuilding, but geopolitical tensions and a lack of resources hinder its efforts
- The concept of pen holders in the UN Security Council highlights power dynamics in international crisis management. A few countries continue to dominate decision-making, limiting the influence of African nations on regional conflicts
- Calls for reform within the UN Security Council emphasize the need for African countries to play a greater role in addressing regional conflicts. Proximity and political legitimacy are crucial factors in these discussions
- The effectiveness of the African Union in crisis management is questioned amid the current state of multilateralism. The organization faces challenges in asserting its influence and addressing conflicts on the continent
1200.0–1500.0
The African Union has evolved into a more robust entity but is often hindered by limitations imposed by its member states. This affects its ability to act decisively in conflict prevention and respond proactively to crises.
- The African Union (AU) has evolved from its original focus under the Organization of African Unity to a more robust entity. However, it often struggles due to limitations imposed by its member states
- The effectiveness of the AU is hindered by the political and financial resources provided by its member states. This limitation affects its ability to act decisively in conflict prevention
- Despite having access to early warning data, the AU has faced criticism for its failure to invest in preventive diplomacy. It often responds reactively rather than proactively
- Middle powers in the Sahel and Sudan regions play significant roles in mediation and conflict dynamics. However, their influence varies and is often overshadowed by traditional powers
- Countries such as Russia and Turkey have emerged as key players in the Sahel. Their involvement impacts the regions conflicts and shifts the balance of power away from traditional Western actors
- The involvement of Gulf countries, including Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, in the Horn of Africa reflects their strategic interests. They compete for economic opportunities in the region
- The dynamics of internationalized civil wars in the Horn of Africa are shaped by external actors. This complicates the resolution of conflicts that are not solely internal
1500.0–1800.0
The militarization of the Red Sea and port politics are central to Gulf countries' ambitions, particularly for the UAE in its engagement in Sudan. West Africa's geopolitical landscape has shifted, with new regional dynamics emerging and frustrations with existing regional bodies over security challenges.
- Militarization of the Red Sea and port politics are crucial to the ambitions of Gulf countries. These factors significantly impact their peace and security strategies
- The fight against perceived threats, such as Islamists, drives the United Arab Emirates engagement in conflicts like Sudan. This reflects broader regional security concerns
- West Africas geopolitical landscape has changed significantly. Nigerias influence has diminished, and new regional dynamics are emerging among various stakeholders
- Countries like Algeria and Libya have distinct foreign policy approaches toward West Africa. These differing strategies complicate the regions security situation
- Three West African countries have formed the Sahel Alliance. They cite a lack of support from the Economic Community of West African States in addressing jihadi threats
- Frustration with regional bodies stems from perceived failures to address security challenges. This has led to a shift in focus toward external actors like France
- Mediation efforts in the region are challenged by reduced humanitarian aid and ongoing crises. These factors complicate the role of mediators in conflict resolution
1800.0–2100.0
Mediation in conflict zones requires a nuanced understanding of the various perspectives driving the conflict. The involvement of external actors complicates mediation efforts, particularly in regions like Sudan.
- Mediation in conflict zones requires a deep understanding of the issues at hand. It emphasizes the importance of listening and communication. Mediators must grasp the various perspectives driving the conflict to effectively engage with all parties involved
- The role of mediators has become increasingly complex due to various national interests in conflicts. Mediators often navigate the competing agendas of external actors who are both part of the problem and potential solutions
- In Sudan, the Quad complicates mediation efforts. This group includes the United States, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Aligning these nations on a shared vision for stability in Sudan is a challenging task that must precede direct negotiations with local combatants
- The presence of external supporters in conflicts can hinder resolution efforts. Removing these interests could simplify negotiations. However, states often have vested interests that complicate mediation processes
- Current geopolitical turbulence and reduced humanitarian aid exacerbate the challenges faced by mediators. The ongoing mass displacement and expulsion of civilians highlight the urgent need for effective crisis management amid dwindling resources
- West Africa, once a model for peace and security, is now facing significant instability. Nigerias crisis and the potential withdrawal of three countries from regional cooperation illustrate the precarious situation in the region
2100.0–2400.0
The Great Lakes region continues to experience entrenched divisions and conflicts, particularly affecting Uganda, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Horn of Africa is also facing multiple ongoing conflicts, notably in Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, which complicate the geopolitical landscape.
- Entrenched divisions and conflicts in the Great Lakes region continue to affect Uganda, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This instability has persisted for decades
- The Horn of Africa faces multiple ongoing conflicts, particularly in Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. These conflicts complicate the regions geopolitical landscape
- A significant youth explosion in Africa raises concerns about the future. Younger generations may bear the brunt of ongoing conflicts and socio-economic challenges
- Young people are increasingly dissatisfied with their leaders, who are often elected through violent means. They are seeking alternatives to the current political landscape
- The situation in Tanzania exemplifies the frustrations of youth. They feel trapped under leaders who claim to be democratic but govern in a harmful manner
- Addressing these issues requires urgent attention to socio-economic opportunities. Debt relief is also necessary to prevent further disillusionment among the youth