Energy / Europe
Monitor Europe energy trends, electricity markets, supply pressure, regulation and regional resource dynamics.
58. Energy-Charts Talk 1.4.2026: Auswirkungen des Iran-Kriegs auf Strom- und Gaspreis in Deutschland
Summary
The Iran War has significantly influenced energy prices in Germany, particularly gas and electricity. Despite a notable increase in gas prices, electricity prices have remained relatively stable, indicating a decoupling effect driven by renewable energy sources.
Monthly data reveals that electricity prices were higher in January due to increased winter consumption, but the onset of the Iran War in March coincided with a substantial rise in gas prices. The relationship between gas and electricity prices has shifted, with electricity prices not rising in tandem with gas prices as previously expected.
Renewable energy's share in electricity generation has increased dramatically, reaching nearly 60% by March. This growth has contributed to a decrease in reliance on gas, which fell from 20% to 12% in the same period, further stabilizing electricity prices.
Statistical analysis shows that only 24% of the time in March did electricity prices exceed the marginal costs of gas power plants. This marks a significant change from previous months, highlighting the growing influence of renewable energy on pricing dynamics.
Perspectives
short
Proponents of Renewable Energy
- Highlight the significant increase in renewable energy share in electricity generation
- Argue that renewable energy mitigates the impact of gas price fluctuations
- Claim that electricity prices have remained stable despite rising gas prices
Critics of Current Energy Pricing Models
- Question the assumption that gas prices dictate electricity prices
- Point out the need for updated pricing models that account for renewable energy contributions
- Critique the reliance on gas power plants for setting electricity prices
Neutral / Shared
- Note the seasonal demand influences on electricity prices
- Acknowledge the complexity of energy market dynamics
Metrics
gas_price
36 euros per hour EUR
current gas price
It indicates the immediate cost of gas affecting energy pricing.
the price of the gas price is 36 euros per hour
electricity_price_change
almost 13 percent %
electricity price change in February
It highlights the seasonal influence on electricity pricing.
the electricity price is almost 13 percent
gas_price_increase
48 percent %
increase in gas prices due to the Iran war
It reflects the significant market impact of geopolitical events.
the gas price was 48 percent increased
co2_price
86 euros EUR
current CO2 price
It affects the cost structure of gas power plants.
Here in 86 euros the tonne CO2
electricity_price
110 euros EUR
electricity price in January
It serves as a benchmark for evaluating market dynamics.
the electricity price is at 110 euros
electricity_price_fall
28 percent cheaper %
electricity price compared to expectations
It underscores the unexpected resilience of electricity pricing.
the gas was 28 percent cheaper
co2_price_fall
75 euros to 69 euros EUR
fall in CO2 price
It impacts the cost calculations for gas power plants.
the CO2 became even cheaper from almost 75 euros to 69 euros
terawatt-hours
40.4 terabytes terawatt-hours
electricity consumption in March
Stable consumption suggests resilience in demand despite price fluctuations.
from February 40.7 or 40.8 terabytes of power on March 40.4 terabytes
Key entities
Timeline highlights
00:00–05:00
The Iran war has led to a significant increase in gas prices in Germany, while electricity prices have shown unexpected stability. Seasonal demand and the influence of renewable energy sources are key factors in the current pricing dynamics.
- The Iran war significantly impacted energy prices in Germany, causing gas prices to surge while electricity prices remained stable, indicating a shift in market dynamics due to renewable energy sources
- Electricity prices peaked in January due to high winter demand but fell nearly 13% in February, showing that seasonal factors heavily influence electricity pricing
- Following the onset of the Iran war, gas prices rose by 48%, yet electricity prices did not increase as anticipated, raising questions about the factors stabilizing electricity prices despite higher gas costs
- Marginal cost calculations for gas power plants show that while gas prices increased, CO2 emissions costs decreased, suggesting that emissions are becoming a more significant factor in energy pricing
- Electricity prices remained 28% lower than expected despite rising gas prices, highlighting the growing influence of renewable energy on the market
- Analysis of quarter-hourly values reveals a divergence between electricity prices and gas power plant costs, indicating a potential shift in how electricity pricing is determined
05:00–10:00
Electricity prices in Germany have shown a significant shift, with only 24% of the time in March seeing prices above the marginal costs of gas power plants. The share of renewables in electricity generation surged to nearly 60%, while gas usage decreased from 20% to 12%.
- In January, electricity prices exceeded the marginal costs of gas power plants for 44% of the time, indicating that gas plants were the primary influence on pricing. This trend shifted in February as the percentage dropped to 40%, reflecting a growing impact from renewable energy sources
- By March, only 24% of the time saw electricity prices above the marginal costs, showing a significant shift towards renewable energy determining pricing. The share of renewables in electricity generation surged to nearly 60%, while gas usage decreased from 20% to 12%, contributing to lower prices
- Electricity exports were balanced in March, contrasting with previous months surpluses, suggesting that external market factors influenced stability. This balance indicates a shift in how imports and exports affect the overall energy market
- Electricity consumption remained stable from February to March, with only a slight decrease observed. This stability, along with increased solar energy usage, likely played a role in shaping the pricing landscape
10:00–15:00
The share of renewable energy in electricity generation increased from 53% to 60% from February to March, contributing to the stability of electricity prices. The proportion of electricity generated from natural gas decreased from 20% to 12%, further decoupling electricity prices from gas prices.
- The share of renewable energy in electricity generation increased significantly from February to March, rising from 53% to 60%. This shift played a crucial role in stabilizing electricity prices despite rising gas prices
- The proportion of electricity generated from natural gas dropped from 20% to 12% during the same period. This decline in gas contribution further decoupled electricity prices from gas prices
- In March, there was no net electricity export, indicating that domestic consumption matched production. This balance likely contributed to the stability of electricity prices
- The percentage of time when electricity prices exceeded the marginal costs of gas power plants decreased from 40% to 24% from February to March. This reduction highlights the growing influence of renewable energy on pricing dynamics
- Despite the increase in gas prices, the electricity price remained stable in March. If gas prices had not risen, it is possible that electricity prices could have decreased slightly
- Overall, the high share of renewable energy has effectively decoupled electricity prices from gas prices. This trend is significant for future energy pricing and policy considerations